Manchester City vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Carabao Cup
England - Carabao Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Carabao Cup Predictions
The road to Wembley runs through the Etihad Stadium in midweek, when Manchester City host Newcastle United in the second leg of their semi-final tie in the Carabao Cup. The winner of this match between the Citizens and the Magpies will meet either Arsenal or Chelsea in the grand final. Check out our match prediction below!
Pep Guardiola’s side are bidding to bring an end to their four-year wait and win the EFL Cup for the ninth time in their history this season. The Sky Blues already have one foot under the Wembley Arch, having secured an impressive 2-0 victory in the first leg of this tie at St. James Park three weeks ago.
For the Toon Army, this competition holds a special place - it was the cup that ended a seven-decade wait for silverware and winning it last year redefined the city’s belief. That memory still burns bright, and rest assured, if they do miss out on returning to the Home of Football, it won’t be without a fight. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Manchester City v Newcastle Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.87 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.78 | 4.06 | 4.06 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.92 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester City and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Manchester City vs Newcastle match is: Antoine Semenyo over 0.5 shots on target.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/02/2026 between Manchester City and Newcastle in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.18% for a win of Manchester City against Newcastle with odds of 1.92 at Roobet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester City vs Newcastle is 28.78% with odds of 4.2 at BC Game.
- Our prediction model gives a 17.04% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Manchester City with odds of 4.2 at BC Game.
Manchester City - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester City Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 54.18% | 1.92 at Roobet |
| Under 2.5 | 57.09% | 2.42 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 53.33% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Manchester City/Manchester City | 31.17% | 3 at Bet365 |
Manchester City vs Newcastle Form
Manchester City and Newcastle Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Manchester City vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
15 Feb 2025 - Premier League
28 Sept 2024 - Premier League
16 Mar 2024 - FA Cup
13 Jan 2024 - Premier League
Manchester City - Newcastle: Form Analysis
While Manchester City have not lifted the Carabao Cup in the last four years, they have featured in six finals since 2013, and have a 100% record of winning the title during this period.
At 2-0 up, the Citizens are in a commanding position to return to Wembley this year. But they have not been in great shape since the first leg, winning only two of their last five matches across all competitions (D1 L2).
At home, though, the Sky Blues are unbeaten in their last nine matches (W7 D2) and won their last three in all competitions, while scoring an incredible 14 goals across those three victories.
Man City have won each of their last 11 home games against this opponent in all competitions!
Meanwhile, Newcastle United are enduring a poor run of results lately. Since the first leg of this tie, they have only managed one win in five matches, which came against PSV in the Champions League.
Last weekend, the Magpies were hammered 4-1 by Liverpool on the road, which saw them slip to 10th place in the EPL with 33 points, now seven points behind fourth-placed Man United.
One of the biggest issues for Eddie Howe’s side this season has been their away record. They are winless in their last three (D2 L1) and have still only won three of their 16 matches on the road in all competitions this season (D6 L7).
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Manchester City against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
G. Donnarumma
DefenderR. Lewis
M. Alleyne
R. Dias
MidfielderR. McAidoo
S. Nypan
R. Cherki
Rodri
E. Haaland
N. Pope
DefenderA. Murphy
L. Shahar
MidfielderJ. Murphy
Y. Wissa
S. Neave
H. Barnes
W. Osula
A. Elanga
Missing players
J. Stones
J. Gvardiol
MidfielderSavinho
F. Schar
E. Krafth
T. Livramento
ForwardJoelinton
Manchester City & Newcastle Squad Analysis
Antoine Semenyo scored his second goal for City in the first leg of this tie and now has five goal contributions in as many games for his new employers after netting against Spurs at the weekend.
Phil Foden has only started one domestic match since the first leg but is expected to get the nod here, likely for Rayan Cherki. Omar Marmoush could also come into the starting lineup for Erling Haaland, who has now scored only once in domestic competitions since the start of 2026.
The hosts have several injury absentees at present, including Jeremy Doku, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Savinho, Oscar Bobb and John Stones, while Cherki is a doubt.
Semenyo is only the second player to score four goals in his first five games for City in the last two decades!
Howe made a surprising call to start Anthony Gordon as the number nine against Liverpool at the weekend. While he did get on the scoresheet, we should see either Yoanne Wissa or Nick Woltemade return from the start in this one.
Bruno Guimaraes’ absence has been solely felt by the Magpies over the past few weeks, but he has reportedly resumed light training in recent days and could feature in some capacity for this crucial fixture.
The visitors will be missing Joelinton, Tino Livramento, Fabian Schar and Emil Krafth for this match. Jamaal Lascelles is closing in on a return, but is still a few weeks away from full fitness.
Most goals and assists
Manchester City
Newcastle
O. Marmoush
(3 Goals)
, 
R. Cherki
(3 Goals)
Joelinton
(2 Goals)
, 
W. Osula
(2 Goals)
R. Cherki
(2 Assists)
B. Guimaraes
(2 Assists)
, 
S. Tonali
(2 Assists)
Manchester City - Newcastle Key Points
- Antoine Semenyo has scored four goals in his first five games for Man City.
- Antoine Semenyo is averaging 1.2 shots on target per game since joining Man City.
- Antoine Semenyo is averaging 1.35 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season.
- Newcastle have only kept one clean sheet in their last 12 away games in all competitions.
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Our Manchester City vs Newcastle Prediction
While Manchester City may not be at their absolute best this season, one player that has been shining since arriving at the Etihad Stadium last month is Antoine Semenyo, who has already notched up four goals in five appearances.
With Jeremy Doku sidelined, the Ghanaian is almost a sure starter for Pep Guardiola at present, and given Newcastle’s struggles on the road this season, we fancy his chances of producing another impressive performance in this match. Our Manchester City vs Newcastle prediction is Antoine Semenyo over 0.5 shots on target.
Manchester City vs Newcastle Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Man City have scored two or more goals in seven of their last nine home games, while nine of Newcastle’s last 12 away matches have ended with both teams scoring.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester City Newcastle
| Manchester City vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 1.78 | 1.92 | +7.9% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 4.2 | +10.5% |
| Newcastle wins | 3.95 | 4.2 | +6.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 56.2% and is now 52.1% (-4.1%)
Manchester City vs Newcastle - FAQs
The Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Man City and Newcastle will take place on February 4 at 20:00 GMT.
The Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Man City and Newcastle will be played at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester.
The Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Man City and Newcastle will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Carabao Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
