Mali vs Tunisia Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Joseph King | in AFCON Predictions
The second African Cup of Nations round of 16 fixture on Saturday sees Mali taking on Tunisia in Casablanca. Who will come out on top in this clash between the Eagles and the Eagles of Carthage in what is what looks to be a very even match. Check out our prediction below!
Mali advanced to the knockout stages for the fourth consecutive AFCON tournament after drawing all three of their matches in Group A to finish second. It was the third time in Mali’s history that they have drawn all three group stage games. The first occurrence was in 1972, where Mali would actually go on to finish as runners-up. That remains the team’s only trip to the final.
Tunisia did what was expected of them, finishing second with a 1-1-1 record in Group C. After winning their opener against Uganda, Tunisia made it somewhat more complicated than it had to be with a loss to Nigeria in the second fixture before a 1-1 draw with Tanzania in the final round of group matches. Tunisia were crowned champions in 2004, which remains their only AFCON title to this day.
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Mali v Tunisia Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.55 | 2.7 | 3.45 |
|
|
2.67 | 2.67 | 3.28 |
|
|
2.6 | 2.68 | 3.38 |
|
|
2.6 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.52 | 2.62 | 3.35 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Mali and Tunisia?
Our prediction for the Mali vs Tunisia match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/01/2026 between Mali and Tunisia in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.63% for a win of Mali against Tunisia with odds of 2.67 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mali vs Tunisia is 43.33% with odds of 2.75 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.04% chance ⭐ for a win of Tunisia vs Mali with odds of 3.55 at Shangrila.
Mali - Tunisia Prediction and Best Odds:
| Mali Tunisia Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 43.33% | 2.75 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 55.34% | |
| Both Team To Score | 55% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 17.33% | 3.6 at Bet365 |
Mali vs Tunisia Form
Mali and Tunisia Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Dec 2025 - AFCON
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
6 Sept 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Dec 2025 - AFCON
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - AFCON
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
7 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
4 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
1 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
1 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
14 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - AFCON
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
7 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
4 Dec 2025 - Arab Cup
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
Mali vs Tunisia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
20 %
60 %
20 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
20 Jan 2024 - AFCON
29 Mar 2022 - World Cup
25 Mar 2022 - World Cup
12 Jan 2022 - AFCON
28 Jun 2019 - AFCON
Mali - Tunisia: Form Analysis
Mali’s 1-1 draw with tournament favourites Morocco proved that the Eagles are a tough team to beat. However, they might count themselves somewhat lucky to have gotten away with a point in that match Morocco were wasteful with their chances.
Mali will feel they should have done better against Comoros and Zambia. They did, however, do a good job defensively against those sides, giving up a combined 0.76 xG.
In their last 18 matches dating back to June 2024, Mali have only been beaten on two occasions.
During that same stretch, they ran out winners eight times, with the remaining eight ending in stalemates.
As for Tunisia, they’re back in the knockout stages after suffering a group stage exit in 2023. They cruised to a 3-1 opening win over Uganda before losing a 3-2 shootout with Nigeria. A 1-1 draw with Tanzania meant they went through in second, although it was a disappointing performance against a team that they should have handled quite easily.
Tunisia’s defence hasn’t been particularly impressive this tournament and has conceded in all three games so far. The Eagles of Carthage have won six of their last nine not including the Arab Cup, losing just once.
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Mali against Tunisia Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2
Substitutes
I. Diawara
M. Samassa
DefenderF. Doucoure
N. Gassama
M. Fofana
H. Traore
M. Camara
K. Doumbia
I. Sissoko
G. Diakite
E. Toure
N. Dorgeles
M. Camara
M. Doumbia
B. Ben Said
N. Farhati
DefenderM. Ben Ouanes
M. Ben Ali
A. Arous
N. Ghandri
A. Maaloul
Y. Meriah
S. Tounekti
M. Ben Romdhane
E. Achouri
E. Saad
S. Jaziri
F. Chaouat
N. Sliti
Mali & Tunisia Squad Analysis
The Malian squad looks to be healthy heading in to this round of 16 clash and we aren’t likely to see many changes by manager Tom Saintfiet.
Expect to see Tottenham midfielder Yves Bissouma taking up his position in midfield, with dangerous wingers Dorgeles Nene and Mamadou Sangare on the flanks. Substitute Amadou Haidara received a red card in his cameo appearance against Comoros and will be unavailable for selection here.
For Mali, their top performing player in the group stage has been striker Lassine Sinayoko, who put forward three solid performances, scoring twice. The Ligue 1 striker has been on fire lately and the Tunisia defence will have to keep a close eye on him if they are to advance to the next round.
Sinayoko has scored five goals in his last five appearances for club and country.
Tunisia also comes into this match with a clean bill of health. With no injuries or suspensions, manager Sami Trabelsi has a full squad to choose from.
There have been three players that have stood out for Tunisia in the group stage. Elias Achouri has been Tunisia’s key attacking player so far, leading the team with two goals.
They’ve also gotten a strong contribution from left back Ali Abdi, and Burnley midfielder Hannibal Mejbri. The former scored a goal and provided an assist while the latter has assisted twice in Tunisia’s three group stage games.
Most goals and assists
Mali
Tunisia
L. Sinayoko
(3 Goals)
E. Achouri
(2 Goals)
H. Mejbri
(2 Assists)
Mali - Tunisia Key Points
- Mali have drawn their last four consecutive matches.
- The last two meetings between these teams finished in draws, including a 1-1 scoreline in January of 2024.
- Tunisia have drawn three of their last six overall.
- Mali and Tunisia rank closely in big chances created (6 each), expected goals and xG conceded.
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Our Mali vs Tunisia Prediction
These two teams actually met in the group stage of the previous edition of the African Cup of Nations. They played out to a 1-1 draw on that occasion and there’s a decent chance we see a similar type of game in Casablanca.
A strong defensive side in Mali meets a strong attacking side in Tunisia. The underlying numbers suggest we are in for a tight match, as do the performances by both teams up to this point so far. Ultimately, we expect the two to cancel each other out. Our Mali vs Tunisia prediction: draw.Mali vs Tunisia Alternative Predictions
Under 2.5 goals
Mali have trended heavily towards low-scoring games recently, seeing under 2.5 goals in their last four straight. There’s also been under 2.5 in the last six straight meetings between these two sides. Mali have been strong defensively in this tournament, giving up a combined 0.76 xG in their matches against Comoros and Zambia.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Mali Tunisia
| Mali vs Tunisia | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali wins | 2.85 | 2.67 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 2.99 | 2.75 | -8.0% |
| Tunisia wins | 2.72 | 3.55 | +30.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 33.4% and is now 36.4% (2.9%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
