Mali vs Senegal Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Devesh Jaganath | in AFCON Predictions
The quarter-finals at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations kick off on Friday afternoon, with Mali taking on Senegal at the Grande Stade de Tanger in Tangier. The winner of this match between the Eagles and Lions of Teranga will meet either Egypt or the Ivory Coast in the semi-final on January 14. Check out our match prediction below!
After falling in the Round of 16 during their title defence in the Ivory Coast at the 2023 AFCON, Senegal look the business this year and surged into the last eight with an unbeaten record (W3 D1). The Teranga Lions are the clear favourites in this fixture, having avoided defeat in their last 13 matches against this opponent across all competitions, winning six and drawing seven.
Mali have also maintained an unbeaten record to this point, but their qualification to the last eight has been a surprise, as they’ve not won a match in open play in this competition (D4). The last time the Eagles beat this opponent was in 1997 - but can they pull off what would be the biggest upset of the quarter-finals? Let’s get into the key stats.
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The Best Betting Odds for Mali v Senegal Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
|
|
6 | 3.2 | 1.73 |
|
|
5.5 | 3 | 1.73 |
|
|
6.25 | 3.15 | 1.71 |
|
|
5.25 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Mali and Senegal?
Our prediction for the Mali vs Senegal match is: Senegal wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/01/2026 between Mali and Senegal in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.92% for a win of Mali against Senegal with odds of 6.56 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mali vs Senegal is 30.28% with odds of 3.36 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.8% chance ⭐ for a win of Senegal vs Mali with odds of 1.8 at Bet365.
Mali - Senegal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Mali Senegal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Senegal wins | 38.8% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.63% | 2.7 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 42.86% | 2.63 at Bet365 |
| Half-time : Mali / Full-time : Senegal | 14.09% | 34 at Bet365 |
Mali vs Senegal Form
Mali and Senegal Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - AFCON
29 Dec 2025 - AFCON
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - AFCON
22 Dec 2025 - AFCON
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Dec 2025 - AFCON
26 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - AFCON
30 Dec 2025 - AFCON
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - AFCON
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
12 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
29 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
Mali - Senegal: Form Analysis
Mali’s path to the knockout round was an unusual one, as they only managed three points (D3) in the group stage, but that proved enough for second place behind hosts Morocco.
The Eagles then pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the last 16, holding fancied Tunisia to a 1-1 draw after extra time before beating the Carthage Eagles 3-2 in a thrilling penalty shootout.
Mali have reached the semi-finals six times in the past but not since 2013. One key factor here is that the Eagles will be playing their first game in Tangier this week, while Senegal has played all four of their matches at this venue.
Senegal last lost an AFCON knockout match in regulation time in 2006!
Meanwhile, Senegal reached the knockout stage of the 2025 AFCON by topping Group C, recording 3-0 victories over Botswana and Benin, either side of a 1-1 draw against DR Congo.
In the round of 16, the Lions of Teranga were given an early scare, conceding to Sudan in the sixth minute, but they won the match 3-1, marking their first comeback victory in this competition since 2015.
The 2021 champions are now unbeaten in their last 15 AFCON matches in regulation time (W10 D5) and nine AFCON knockout games. They have also scored in each of their last eight games in this competition, dating back to the 2021 final.
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Mali against Senegal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Mali & Senegal Squad Analysis
Lassine Sinayoko has been by far the most important player for Mali in this competition, as he has scored all three of their goals at AFCON 2025 and is now the nation’s third-highest goal-scorer in their AFCON history (6).
One player that will be crucial to Mali’s chances of progressing to the semis is shot-stopper Djigui Diarra. He made five saves in the last-16 clash against Tunisia, stopped two penalties, and was widely considered Player of the Match.
Woyo Coulibaly is suspended for this match, but Amadou Haidara will return from his ban!
While Senegal possesses heaps of quality across the pitch, the creative spark in the side remains Sadio Mane, who has three assists and a goal in this competition. He now also holds the record for the most assists in AFCON history (9).
Ismaila Sarr has yet to open his account in this tournament, but he led the team with nine touches in the opposing penalty area against Sudan and could be key to stretching Mali’s defence.
At the opposite end of the pitch, Moussa Niakhate has been the team’s defensive leader and crucial to helping build play out from defence. He recorded the most touches, passes, and the highest passing accuracy in the last match.
Most goals and assists
Mali
Senegal
L. Sinayoko
(3 Goals)
P. Gueye
(2 Goals)
,
C. Ndiaye
(2 Goals)
,
N. Jackson
(2 Goals)
S. Mane
(3 Assists)
Mali - Senegal Key Points
- Senegal have won three of their four matches in this competition.
- Senegal are unbeaten in their last 13 matches against this opponent in all competitions.
- Senegal are unbeaten in their last 15 AFCON matches in regulation time.
- Senegal have scored in each of their last eight AFCON matches.
- Mali have not won a match in regulation time in this competition (D4).
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Our Mali vs Senegal Prediction
Mali have already defied the odds to reach the quarter-final without winning a match from open play as yet, but they now have to face a massive step up in class of opposition, one they’ve not beaten in almost three decades.
Barring the draw to DR Congo, Senegal have looked a class above the opponents they have come up against in this competition, and we fancy the Lions of Teranga to progress to the last four from this tie. Our Mali vs Senegal prediction is Senegal wins.
Mali vs Senegal - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score (NO)
Senegal have kept clean sheets in two of their four games in this competition, while two of Mali’s three goals came from penalties.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Mali Senegal
| Mali vs Senegal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali wins | 6 | 6 | 0% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.1 | -13.9% |
| Senegal wins | 1.62 | 1.8 | +11.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Senegal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 11.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 61.7% and is now 55.6% (-6.2%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Mali vs. Senegal game!
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Try your luck on this year's AFCON! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Mali vs Senegal - FAQs
The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final between Mali and Senegal will take place on January 9 at 16:00 GMT.
The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final between Mali and Senegal will be played at the Grande Stade de Tanger in Tangier.
The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final between Mali and Senegal will be broadcast on Supersport across most of sub-Saharan Africa. UK and US viewers can tune in to Channel 4 and beIN Sports, respectively.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our AFCON 2025 livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
