Lorient vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Lorient are set to host Marseille this weekend as the French Ligue 1 enters the 30th round of matches. Going into this match day, Lorient trail the European slots by 12 points while Marseille are fourth, a point adrift of the top three. Let’s have a look at the match prediction.
Lorient once seemed like serious contenders for a top six finish, but that has since been wiped away. Les Merlus’ return to Europe is officially out of their hands as they trail the top six by 12 points with five games to go.
Those prospects proved unsuccessful following a run of just one win in their last nine league outings. At home, though, Lorient have only lost once this season.
Marseille returned to winning ways after back-to-back losses against Monaco and Lille. Facing bottom-placed Metz last time out, Les Phoceens turned out in style with a 3-1 win.
That placed them well in the race for an automatic Champions League spot. Marseille will be targeting a second straight win, and having won this reverse fixture 4-0 in September, they have reason to believe.
In their last eight meetings with Lorient, Marseille only failed to score once. In those seven instances that they scored, it was 3+ goals.
This should give the visitors hope to improve on an away run that has just one win in six, losing four.
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Lorient v Marseille Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.7 | 4.3 | 1.67 |
|
|
4.84 | 4.24 | 1.64 |
|
|
4.8 | 4.2 | 1.65 |
|
|
4.5 | 4.33 | 1.65 |
|
|
4.6 | 4.2 | 1.65 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Lorient and Marseille?
Our prediction for the Lorient vs Marseille match is: Marseille wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/04/2026 between Lorient and Marseille in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.87% for a win of Lorient against Marseille with odds of 4.98 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lorient vs Marseille is 28.43% with odds of 4.5 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.7% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Lorient with odds of 1.71 at 888Starz.
Lorient - Marseille Prediction and Best Odds:
| Lorient Marseille Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient wins | 40.87% | 4.98 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.38% | 1.55 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 55% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Lorient | 17.73% | 10.5 at LSbet |
Lorient vs Marseille Form
Lorient and Marseille's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
59 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | +18 |
|
9
|
45 | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | -3 |
Lorient and Marseille Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
13 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
Lorient vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
17 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
12 May 2024 - Ligue 1
10 Dec 2023 - Ligue 1
9 Apr 2023 - Ligue 1
14 Jan 2023 - Ligue 1
8 May 2022 - Ligue 1
Lorient against Marseille Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
B. Kamara
DefenderS. Siba
I. Silva
B. Fadiga
D. Karim
D. Semedo
L. Abergel
T. Aiyegun
S. Soumano
J. De Lange
DefenderH. Hamzaoui Slimani
MidfielderN. Kamissoko
A. Vermeeren
B. Nadir
A. Lago
E. Nwaneri
T. Weah
U. El Kadmiri
Missing players
M. Talbi
S. Toure
A. Kouassi
MidfielderT. Le Bris
ForwardB. Mohamed
F. Medina
N. Aguerd
C. Egan-Riley
MidfielderG. Kondogbia
Most goals and assists
Lorient
Marseille
P. Pagis
(10 Goals)
, 
B. Dieng
(10 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(16 Goals)
A. Kouassi
(6 Assists)
M. Greenwood
(8 Assists)
Lorient - Marseille Key Points
- Lorient are winless in their last three matches, losing twice.
- Marseille have won five more matches than Lorient in Ligue 1.
- Marseille have posted three wins in their last five league games.
- Marseille are unbeaten in 13 games against Lorient, winning 10.
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Our Lorient vs Marseille Prediction
In the last 13 matches between these two sides, Marseille are unbeaten, having won 10 of them. After a recent tough run, they are coming into this match off an important win against bottom side Metz.
They face a Lorient side unbeaten at home in the last 12 league games, but Marseille will be determined to extend their own record against this opponent. The visitors haven’t lost in 13 games against Lorient, winning 10 times. Our prediction for Lorient v Marseille is that Marseille wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lorient Marseille
| Lorient vs Marseille | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient wins | 4.02 | 4.98 | +23.9% |
| Draw | 3.92 | 4.5 | +14.8% |
| Marseille wins | 1.96 | 1.71 | -12.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lorient is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 23.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 24.9% and is now 20.1% (-4.8%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Lorient vs. Marseille game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Lorient and Marseille when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Ligue 1!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
