Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Prediction & Betting Tips - Hong Kong Open
ATP - Hong Kong Open
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Tennis Predictions
Lorenzo Musetti and Andrey Rublev are now on to the semifinals of the 2026 Hong Kong Open and will face each other in the first game. The 2024 winner will be looking for another against Musetti, who's progressed to this stage for the first time. Let's get into this match prediction!
Musetti has finally booked a final-four place in the Hong Kong Open. The Italian exited in the quarterfinal to Jaume Munar in the last edition and in the RO16 to Pavel Katov in the first. This time, Musetti is looking to go all the way, and his performances justify that. The 7th-ranked player entered the RO16 and beat Tomas Etcheverry and then Coleman Wong in the next round.
Musetti now eyes another final after losing the Athens Open to Novak Djokovic in the last two sets. However, Rublev, who beat Musetti in the Dubai Open in 2022, is determined to rain on the Italian’s parade once more. The Russian faced arguably tougher opponents in the form of Yibing Wu (2-1) and, lately, Nuno Borges (2-0).
Those wins made it seven victories in his last eight singles and nine in his last 11 when counting his RO16 Paris Masters exit. That's the kind of performance expected of a player shaping up to defend his crown after missing out on the 2025 tournament.
Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365
The Best Betting Odds for Lorenzo Musetti v Andrey Rublev Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.8 | 2 |
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1.85 | 1.95 |
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1.82 | 1.9 |
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|
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1.82 | 1.92 |
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|
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1.81 | 2.01 |
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Who will win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev match is: Rublev wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev game on 10/01/2026 of the current Hong Kong Open season:
- Lorenzo Musetti has a 55.96% chance to win against Andrey Rublev according to Melbet ⭐ with the odds of 1.85.
- Andrey Rublev has a 44.04% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Musetti ⭐ with odds of 2.01 at 888Starz.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Musetti has a 55.96 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | 55.96 % |
| Andrey Rublev | 44.04 % |
Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Andrey Rublev Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
7 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
13 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
11 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
10 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
8 Nov 2025 - ATP Athens Hellenic Championship
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
7 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
30 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
28 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
27 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
21 Oct 2025 - ATP Vienna
Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev Key Points
- Rublev beat Musetti in their only career meeting.
- Rublev is the 2024 Hong Kong Open champion and only failed to defend his title in the following year due to missing the tournament entirely.
- Rublev has a far better career win rate on hardcourt (65.5%) compared to Musetti (55.1%).
- And that hardcourt win rate difference is especially relevant because Rublev (319) has played 192 games more than Musetti (127).
- Rublev (64.1%) also edged Musetti (59.3%) in career win rate in general.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
Musetti may boast the higher rank today, but Rublev seems to be the much better player with 17 ATP Tour singles titles to back it. Meanwhile, Musetti chases his third. But what's most glaring is the difference in experience and win rate.
Besides surpassing Musetti in hardcourt win rate and edging in career win rate, Rublev has played 351 more career games and 192 more on hardcourt. That's why we're backing the Russian despite having the lower betting odds. Hence, our Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev prediction is that Rublev wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.