Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Prediction & Betting Tips - Hong Kong Open

ATP - Hong Kong Open

ATP 8 Italy
Lorenzo Musetti
10/01/2026 02:30
ATP 16
Andrey Rublev

Prediction :

 

Andrey Rublev wins

2
Welcome offer

New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply

 by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Tennis Predictions

Lorenzo Musetti and Andrey Rublev are now on to the semifinals of the 2026 Hong Kong Open and will face each other in the first game. The 2024 winner will be looking for another against Musetti, who's progressed to this stage for the first time. Let's get into this match prediction!

Musetti has finally booked a final-four place in the Hong Kong Open. The Italian exited in the quarterfinal to Jaume Munar in the last edition and in the RO16 to Pavel Katov in the first. This time, Musetti is looking to go all the way, and his performances justify that. The 7th-ranked player entered the RO16 and beat Tomas Etcheverry and then Coleman Wong in the next round.

Musetti now eyes another final after losing the Athens Open to Novak Djokovic in the last two sets. However, Rublev, who beat Musetti in the Dubai Open in 2022, is determined to rain on the Italian’s parade once more. The Russian faced arguably tougher opponents in the form of Yibing Wu (2-1) and, lately, Nuno Borges (2-0).

Those wins made it seven victories in his last eight singles and nine in his last 11 when counting his RO16 Paris Masters exit. That's the kind of performance expected of a player shaping up to defend his crown after missing out on the 2025 tournament.

Welcome Bonus 

Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365

The Best Betting Odds for Lorenzo Musetti v Andrey Rublev Match

Bookmaker 1 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
1.8 2
Melbet
1.85 1.95
BC Game
1.82 1.9
Tonybet
1.82 1.92
888Starz
1.81 2.01
Check all Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev odds

Who will win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Tennis game?

Our prediction for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev match is: Rublev wins.

The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev game on 10/01/2026 of the current Hong Kong Open season:

  • Lorenzo Musetti has a 55.96% chance to win against Andrey Rublev according to Melbet ⭐ with the odds of 1.85.
  • Andrey Rublev has a 44.04% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Musetti ⭐ with odds of 2.01 at 888Starz.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Best Prediction and Odds

Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Musetti has a 55.96 % chance to win.

PredictionChance to win
Lorenzo Musetti55.96 %
Andrey Rublev44.04 %

Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Form

Lorenzo Musetti and Andrey Rublev Last Matches

Lorenzo Musetti Last matches
L L W L W W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open

Lorenzo Musetti
2 :  0
Coleman Wong

7 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open

Lorenzo Musetti
2 :  1
Tomas Martin Etcheverry

13 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals

Carlos Alcaraz
2 :  0
Lorenzo Musetti

11 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals

Lorenzo Musetti
2 :  1
Alex De Minaur

10 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals

Lorenzo Musetti
0 :  2
Taylor Fritz

8 Nov 2025 - ATP Athens Hellenic Championship

Novak Djokovic
2 :  1
Lorenzo Musetti
Andrey Rublev Last matches
L W W L W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open

Andrey Rublev
2 :  0
Nuno Borges

7 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open

Andrey Rublev
2 :  1
Yibing Wu

30 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters

Ben Shelton
2 :  0
Andrey Rublev

28 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters

Learner Tien
0 :  2
Andrey Rublev

27 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters

Jacob Fearnley
0 :  2
Andrey Rublev

21 Oct 2025 - ATP Vienna

Cameron Norrie
2 :  1
Andrey Rublev

Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev Key Points

  1. Rublev beat Musetti in their only career meeting.
  2. Rublev is the 2024 Hong Kong Open champion and only failed to defend his title in the following year due to missing the tournament entirely.
  3. Rublev has a far better career win rate on hardcourt (65.5%) compared to Musetti (55.1%).
  4. And that hardcourt win rate difference is especially relevant because Rublev (319) has played 192 games more than Musetti (127).
  5. Rublev (64.1%) also edged Musetti (59.3%) in career win rate in general.
Welcome Bonus 

Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365

Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Musetti may boast the higher rank today, but Rublev seems to be the much better player with 17 ATP Tour singles titles to back it. Meanwhile, Musetti chases his third. But what's most glaring is the difference in experience and win rate.

Besides surpassing Musetti in hardcourt win rate and edging in career win rate, Rublev has played 351 more career games and 192 more on hardcourt. That's why we're backing the Russian despite having the lower betting odds. Hence, our Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev prediction is that Rublev wins.

Prediction :

 

Andrey Rublev wins

2
Welcome offer

Use £/€50 free bets for the Lorenzo Musetti vs. Andrey Rublev game!

bet365 welcome offer

Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Lorenzo Musetti and Andrey Rublev? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.

Try your luck on this year's Hong Kong Open! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger. 

Claim this offer!

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Prediction