Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Champions League Predictions
For the second straight season Liverpool’s Champions League campaign starts at home against Atletico Madrid. New Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola will be getting his first ever taste of the UCL. It comes days after unpacking his first win as the Reds’ boss. On the opposite side he faces the sixth most experienced manager in the Champions League, Diego Simeone.
Just as this will not be the first time the two teams face off, the same applies to the managers. Simeone has the edge in the four previous meetings with Iraola, winning three and drawing once. Atletico aren’t in great spirits coming into this encounter, having lost in their latest La Liga game.
The prediction here won’t favor them either, as history against Premier League sides in this competition is against them. The Spaniards have never beaten an English side in the UCL group or league stage, having played 10 such matches. Meanwhile, Liverpool have beaten Spanish sides at this stage of the CL in each of their last six meetings.
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Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.71 | 4 | 4.6 |
|
|
1.73 | 4.23 | 4.73 |
|
|
1.69 | 4.1 | 4.6 |
|
|
1.69 | 4.1 | 4.6 |
|
|
1.69 | 4.16 | 4.54 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid match is: Liverpool wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/09/2026 between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.86% for a win of Liverpool against Atletico Madrid with odds of 1.75 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid is 13.02% with odds of 4.23 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 33.13% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool with odds of 4.8 at Shangrila.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Form
Liverpool and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Sept 2026 - Premier League
29 Aug 2026 - Premier League
23 Aug 2026 - Premier League
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Aug 2026 - Premier League
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Sept 2026 - Premier League
23 Aug 2026 - Premier League
15 May 2026 - Premier League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
29 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
29 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
9 May 2026 - LaLiga
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
29 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2026 - LaLiga
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
60 %
0 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
3 Nov 2021 - Champions League
19 Oct 2021 - Champions League
11 Mar 2020 - Champions League
18 Feb 2020 - Champions League
Liverpool - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
After starting their season with two straight draws, Liverpool finally registered a win, beating promoted side Ipswich 2-0 in the Premier League. They had earlier posted back-to-back draws, and this latest result is a boost to their confidence. Last season they hosted this same match and were on the brink of dropping points from a 2-0 lead.
However, Virgil van Dijk scored in stoppage time for a 3-2 win. That marked a fourth straight win for Liverpool in this matchup. Three of those wins were identical with their 3-2 scorelines. When playing at home, Liverpool are unbeaten in their opening UCL match. For the Reds, Anfield is a fortress. In the last 18 matches at home in Europe, Liverpool won 17 and lost once.
Liverpool lost on matchday one only twice in their last 15 UCL campaigns.
Atletico Madrid are looking to break free of Liverpool’s dominance when they head to Anfield. They will also try to loosen Liverpool’s grip on this encounter. There could be reason to believe Atletico can do that; based more on their profile rather than recent performance. Going into this game, the Spanish side will be keen on improving on recent results, especially their 3-0 defeat away to Athletic Bilbao.
Taking such a result to Anfield places them at risk of starting two consecutive CL seasons with defeat. The fact that they have a poor record in league/group stage matches against English sides, also threatens their ambition to start on a high.
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Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
G. Mamardashvili
DefenderK. Tsimikas
J. Frimpong
MidfielderW. Endo
L. Koumas
T. Nyoni
R. Gravenberch
ForwardR. Ngumoha
B. Barcola
J. Musso
DefenderJ. Dominguez
C. Romero
R. Le Normand
D. Martinez Moreno
MidfielderJ. Cardoso
Koke
J. Castillo
R. Martinez Moya
ForwardJ. Alvarez
J. David
A. Ortiz
Missing players
C. Bradley
ForwardH. Ekitike
Liverpool & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
Two of Liverpool’s scorers in their 3-2 win here last season have since left the team. There could be another hero in this match, though, in Cody Gakpo. The Dutch forward is enjoying a good start to the season, having recorded three assists and a goal for the Reds.
In the team’s first win of the season, against Ipswich, he was responsible for the assists that yielded a 2-0 win. Earlier a subject of transfer rumors linking him with a move to Manchester City, the forward is now settled, and Liverpool are reaping. Bradley Barcola had his Liverpool debut over the weekend, and he could earn a start here after a big-money move from PSG. He brings here relevant experience, having won this title in the last two years.
Hugo Ekitike and Conor Bradley are Liverpool’s absentees for this match.
Marcos Llorente will be keen on more magical moments in this encounter after his brace at Anfield last season. The Spanish international will, however, hope to do more of the job at the back, his primary role.
He has featured in all of Atletico’s four matches and will be in line for another start, dealing with a very attacking host. Cristian Romero should be able to help, Atletico banking on his experience in England, having skippered Tottenham. Norwegian Alex Sorloth will miss out, though, having been out since featuring in the World Cup.
Liverpool - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Liverpool have won five of their last 10 matches at home.
- Liverpool are unbeaten this season, drawing two of three games.
- Atletico lost eight times in their last 12 away matches in all competitions.
- Liverpool have won all six matches against Spanish sides in the UCL league phase.
- Atletico have suffered defeat in nine of their last 14 matches against English teams.
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Our Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Our prediction for Liverpool v Atletico Madrid is that Liverpool wins. History is not on Atletico Madrid’s side in this fixture, and the fact that they are coming from a loss will further complicate matters for them.
The Spanish side hasn’t beaten an English side in the group stage or league phase in the Champions League before, and that could extend here. They aren’t helped by their away form, which at the moment reads eight losses in their last 12 matches. Meanwhile, Liverpool come here having won five of their last 10 home matches.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Atletico Madrid are coming from their fourth competitive game of the season, where they lost 3-0 to Athletic Bilbao. As it is, their only clean sheet was recorded on matchday one against a promoted side, Malaga.
Liverpool are coming from their third game of the season, which also presented them with their first clean sheet of the season. The Reds were facing a newly promoted side as well. One thing that comes out of these teams’ recent performances is their porosity in defence and our second prediction would be for both to score.
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Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid - FAQs
The Liverpool v Atletico Madrid match will be hosted at Anfield on Wednesday, 9th September.
Yes. The Liverpool v Atletico Madrid match will be aired on TNT Sports and Amazon Prime for UK audiences and Telefonica for Spanish viewers. On Sportytrader you’ll be able to find live updates for this as well as other Champions League matches.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
