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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers (UEFA) continue on Sunday evening with Lithuania facing Poland in Kaunas. The Tricolours are in fourth place in Group G, while the White and Reds are second after three games. Let’s get into the match prediction!
With three points after six games, Lithuania will play out the remainder of their games in this competition as formality, as they have already been eliminated from World Cup qualification contention.
The Tricolours squandered a one-goal lead against Finland to lose 2-1 on Thursday night, and they are now winless in their last 14 matches across all competitions dating back to June last year.
Notably, while the hosts are winless in their last seven home games, they only failed to score in one of those matches, including netting twice against the Netherlands last month.
Meanwhile, Poland have taken 10 points from their five games in this group (W3 D1 L1) and need to keep picking up points if they are to maintain pressure on group leaders the Netherlands.
The Eagles won their last match in this competition 3-1 against Finland last month. Since they only have one qualifier match this month, the Poles faced and beat New Zealand 1-0 in a friendly last week.
While the visitors are winless in their last four away games, they are unbeaten in their last four against their upcoming opponent.
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The Best Betting Odds for Lithuania v Poland Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11 | 5 | 1.3 |
|
|
9.5 | 5 | 1.3 |
|
|
9 | 4.5 | 1.3 |
|
|
9 | 4.75 | 1.29 |
|
|
11 | 5.2 | 1.28 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Lithuania and Poland?
Our prediction for the Lithuania vs Poland match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/10/2025 between Lithuania and Poland in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 16.96% for a win of Lithuania against Poland with odds of 11.5 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lithuania vs Poland is 25.79% with odds of 5.21 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 57.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Poland vs Lithuania with odds of 1.43 at BC Game.
Lithuania - Poland Prediction and Best Odds:
| Lithuania Poland Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Poland wins | 57.25% | 1.43 at BC Game |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.93% | 1.98 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 66.67% | 2.28 at Unibet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Poland | 26.36% | 4.2 at Betfair |
Lithuania vs Poland Form
Lithuania and Poland's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
|
5
|
3 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 |
Lithuania and Poland Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
12 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
8 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
25 Jun 2024 - Euro
Lithuania vs Poland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
12 Jun 2018 - International Friendlies
Lithuania against Poland Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Most goals and assists
Lithuania
Poland
G. Gineitis
(3 Goals)
R. Lewandowski
(4 Goals)
Lithuania - Poland Key Points
- Lithuania have scored in four of their five matches in this competition.
- Lithuania have scored in six of their last seven home matches.
- Each of Poland’s last three games in this competition have ended with both teams scoring.
- Poland failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five away games.
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Our Lithuania vs Poland Prediction
While Lithuania are out of qualification contention and a massive underdog in this fixture, they have carried decent attacking threat in this competition, netting six times so far, including twice against the Netherlands.
Poland managed to get some game time under their belts against New Zealand last week, and they may have needed it to prepare for this match, given their away record. We fancy the visitors here, but feel the hosts will be able to get on the scoresheet. Our Lithuania vs Poland prediction is both teams to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lithuania Poland
| Lithuania vs Poland | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania wins | 7.5 | 11 | +46.7% |
| Draw | 4 | 5 | +25.0% |
| Poland wins | 1.48 | 1.3 | -12.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Poland is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 12.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 67.6% and is now 76.9% (9.4%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Lithuania vs. Poland game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Lithuania and Poland? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's World Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
