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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup are hanging by the proverbial thread ahead of their matchday nine fixture against Lesotho. This fixture will be played on Friday at the neutral venue in South Africa, as Lesotho’s home venues aren’t deemed fit to host the visitors. This Group C match between the fifth-placed Crocodiles and the third-placed Super Eagles comes with our prediction of under 3.5 goals.
Only the top-placed team qualifies directly for the World Cup, while the runners-up stay in contention to be among the four teams to qualify for the second round. Lesotho are only marginally alive in the race, although that’s largely because of the three points they were awarded against South Africa.
That result also boosted Nigeria’s hopes as they now look at bridging the three-point gap to the top two teams. That said, with a poor away record as baggage, the Super Eagles have a tough task on their hands. Can Nigeria rise above their poor recent form and boost their qualification chances? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Lesotho v Nigeria Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
19 | 7 | 1.17 |
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21 | 7.5 | 1.11 |
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26 | 7 | 1.11 |
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19 | 7.5 | 1.13 |
|
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16 | 7 | 1.13 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Lesotho and Nigeria?
Our prediction for the Lesotho vs Nigeria match is: under 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/10/2025 between Lesotho and Nigeria in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 15.68% for a win of Lesotho against Nigeria with odds of 26 at William Hill.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lesotho vs Nigeria is 27.39% with odds of 8.3 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 56.93% chance ⭐ for a win of Nigeria vs Lesotho with odds of 1.17 at Bet365.
Lesotho vs Nigeria Form
Lesotho and Nigeria's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
11 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
|
5
|
6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 |
Lesotho and Nigeria Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
5 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Oct 2024 - AFCON
9 Sep 2024 - AFCON
3 Jul 2024 - COSAFA Cup
28 Jun 2024 - COSAFA Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
5 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
6 Sep 2025 - World Cup
19 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
12 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
5 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sep 2025 - World Cup
19 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
18 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
7 Sep 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
12 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
5 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
31 May 2025 - International Friendlies
28 May 2025 - International Friendlies
Lesotho vs Nigeria Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
16 Nov 2023 - World Cup
30 Mar 2021 - AFCON
17 Nov 2019 - AFCON
Lesotho - Nigeria: Form Analysis
Lesotho are fifth in the group standings (W2, D3, L3) with five points separating them from the first two spots. With only six points remaining for grabs, it is only mathematically that the hosts are in the race.
The Crocodiles were beaten in four consecutive matches coming into this fixture, and all have come without scoring. They have, indeed, scored only four goals, while three goals were added in the 3-0 awarded win over South Africa.
Lesotho held Nigeria to a 1-1 draw in the away fixture.
That may prove costly in the final analysis for Nigeria, who start this round three points away from the top two teams (W2, D5, L1). The large number of draws could prove to be their undoing, and the Super Eagles have also drawn their latest qualifier, a 1-1 away draw at South Africa.
That result, however, extended their indifferent form in recent games. Nigeria won only two of their recent eight games (W2, D4, L2), including friendlies.
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Lesotho & Nigeria Squad Analysis
The Crocodiles have usually lined up in 4-2-3-1 formations, although they have lined up with more midfielders to stifle opponents. Critically, they have lined up in a 4-1-4-1 system in the reverse fixture and could do so once again here.
That will mean a pivotal role for defender Motlomelo Mkwanazi, who scored Lesotho’s goal in the reverse fixture and also has one assist in this qualification campaign. Interestingly, the Crocodiles don’t have a game-changing player in their ranks to trouble the Nigerians.
Victor Osimhen has scored three goals for Nigeria in the qualifiers.
Nigeria made a couple of changes to their 23-man squad as Zaidu Sanusi and Uche Christantus replaced Bright Osayi-Samuel and Cyriel Dessers. There are a few players returning to the national set-up, like Terem Moffi and Olakunle Olusegun.
The visitors usually lined up in a 4-2-3-1 system, while an adventurous 4-1-3-2 was also used at times. It would keep star player Victor Osimhen playing slightly ahead of Ademola Lookman.
Lesotho - Nigeria Key Points
- Lesotho failed to score in their last four matches.
- Seven of Lesotho’s last eight World Cup qualifying games have seen under 3.5 goals including an awarded match.
- All three home games for Lesotho in this World Cup qualification campaign have produced fewer than four goals.
- Nigeria saw three or fewer goals in each of their eight World Cup qualifiers in this edition.
- Six of Nigeria’s last eight matches including friendlies have produced fewer than four goals.
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Our Lesotho vs Nigeria Prediction
Both Lesotho and Nigeria are outside qualification for the second round, and finishing top of the group will also need other results to go their way. The loser here could end up writing their chances off, which makes this a closer game considering the context. Lesotho have failed to score in each of their three home qualifiers so far and lost the latest two in that set. Nigeria’s matches have also been short of entertainment, with their defensive record (seven) bettered only by Rwanda.
Goals could be short in supply, and our Lesotho vs Nigeria prediction is under 3.5.
Lesotho vs Nigeria - Other Interesting Predictions
Nigeria to win 1-0
Lesotho’s recent record at home doesn’t inspire confidence, especially as they are yet to score a home goal in this qualification campaign. Nigeria haven’t quite mastered their opponents on the road and have scored exactly once in three of the last four away qualifiers. Backing Nigeria to win 1-0 could be an enticing pick.
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Lesotho vs Nigeria match : Frequently asked questions
The Lesotho vs Nigeria 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifying match will be shown live on DSTV’s SuperSport, SportyBet TV, and AfroSport.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifying Livescore page!
Lesotho were awarded three points as South Africa fielded an ineligible player for the game played in March. That has not only boosted Lesotho’s chances but also given a lifeline to Nigeria, who are now only three points behind the top two teams in the group.
Nigeria will hope that the teams above them – Benin and South Africa – drop points, at least one of them, to keep the Super Eagles in the race. That’s why don’t blame the visiting fans for anxiously keeping an eye on the results of other matches in this round.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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