Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Prediction & Betting Tips - UFC 322
UFC - UFC 322
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
Prepare for intense welterweight action in the UFC 322 as Leon Edwards takes on Carlos Prates, with both players looking to extend their 22-win record. Stick around for our best Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates match prediction below.
Carlos Prates is our man here because, more often than not, pure and unpredictable knockout power is just too much to handle, especially for a guy who has been looking a little gun-shy recently. Leon Edwards is definitely the more technical fighter, especially with his elite distance management and counter-striking ability.
The problem is, Edwards enters this match off brutal back-to-back losses, which saw him lose to Belal Muhammad back in July 2024 by unanimous decision, and then to Sean Brady in March 2025 by submission. It may only be two losses, but in a division where momentum is everything, that's a huge drop-off.
Now, Edwards takes the Prates test, which we expect him to lose as he goes up against an absolute finishing machine and a southpaw striker with a serious reach advantage (78'' to 74''). Prates is especially confident after his last fight, where he took a spectacular first-round knockout over Geoff Neal with a spinning back elbow in August 2025. That kind of unpredictable, fight-ending power is exactly the type of danger that forces a passive fighter like Edwards to hesitate. And hesitation is all Prates needs to put him to sleep.
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Leon Edwards - Carlos Prates Key Points
- Carlos Prates has a devastating 83.3% finish rate in the UFC, with all his wins coming by KO/TKO.
- Prates holds a significant four-inch reach advantage (78'' to 74''), which is key for a power-striker.
- Leon Edwards is on a two-fight losing streak, having lost his last bout to Sean Brady via submission in March 2025.
- Prates is coming off a highlight-reel first-round KO win over Geoff Neal in August 2025, carrying huge momentum.
- Edwards’ defensive striking rate is a modest 53%, which is vulnerable to Prates' explosive offense.
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Our Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Prediction
Leon Edwards is a technical genius who, at his best, can out-point anyone, but he sometimes struggles with aggressive pressure and that one-shot power. The Nightmare has both in spades, and that recent KO loss for Edwards shows a chink in his armor that the Brazilian will exploit.
For three rounds, Prates should walk forward, load up the left hand, and that combination of range and power will be too much for the technically superior, but currently vulnerable, former champion. We expect to see a stoppage in the middle frames. Hence, our Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates match prediction is that Carlos Prates wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
