Leipzig vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Leipzig will look to consolidate their top-three position in the Bundesliga when they host a resurgent Freiburg on matchday 17. This match on Wednesday in Leipzig between the third-placed Red Bulls and the eighth-placed Breisgau-Brasilianer comes with our prediction of the home team scoring more than 1.5 goals.
Ahead of this round, Leipzig’s 29 points from 15 matches (W9, D2, L4) put them four points behind second and just two points ahead of sixth. Freiburg’s 23 points from 16 matches (W6, D5, L5) see them start this round four points outside European qualification places.
After their weekend match against St Pauli was postponed, Leipzig are looking for their first match of this year. They ended last year with two defeats and will hope to rebound here.
Home form is a big positive for the Red Bulls, as they won seven of their eight home matches this season in all competitions, although they lost the latest.
Freiburg edged out Hamburg 2-1 at home last weekend to make it consecutive league wins for just the second time this season. With four wins from their last seven league games, the visitors are picking up at the right time.
One of those wins came on their last trip, but three defeats in four away league matches prior (D1) suggest Freiburg can’t take things for granted.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Leipzig v Freiburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.75 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
|
|
1.76 | 3.92 | 4.36 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.78 | 4.3 |
|
|
1.75 | 3.9 | 4.33 |
|
|
1.74 | 3.75 | 4.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leipzig and Freiburg?
Our prediction for the Leipzig vs Freiburg match is: Leipzig over 1.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/01/2026 between Leipzig and Freiburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.65% for a win of Leipzig against Freiburg with odds of 1.81 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leipzig vs Freiburg is 20.34% with odds of 4.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.02% chance ⭐ for a win of Freiburg vs Leipzig with odds of 4.8 at Shangrila.
Leipzig - Freiburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leipzig Freiburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 53.65% | 1.81 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.63% | 1.85 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 65.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Leipzig | 24.31% | 4.75 at Bet365 |
Leipzig vs Freiburg Form
Leipzig and Freiburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
65 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 |
|
7
|
47 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -6 |
Leipzig and Freiburg Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025 - Europa League
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025 - Europa League
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Nov 2025 - Europa League
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Nov 2025 - Europa League
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
Leipzig vs Freiburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Oct 2024 - Bundesliga
6 Apr 2024 - Bundesliga
12 Nov 2023 - Bundesliga
6 May 2023 - Bundesliga
2 May 2023 - DFB Pokal
Leipzig against Freiburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Vandevoordt
DefenderE. Bitshiabu
K. Nedeljkovic
M. Finkgrafe
MidfielderE. Banzuzi
A. Maksimovic
ForwardY. Diomande
A. Nusa
C. Harder
F. Muller
DefenderJ. Makengo
J. Beste
V. Grifo
N. Hofler
ForwardI. Matanovic
D. Scherhant
J. Adamu
Missing players
B. Henrichs
MidfielderV. Gebel
M. Rosenfelder
MidfielderD. Kyereh
ForwardE. Dinkci
Most goals and assists
Leipzig
Freiburg
C. Baumgartner
(13 Goals)
I. Matanovic
(11 Goals)
D. Raum
(7 Assists)
, 
Y. Diomande
(7 Assists)
V. Grifo
(4 Assists)
, 
J. Manzambi
(4 Assists)
,
M. Ginter
(4 Assists)
Leipzig - Freiburg Key Points
- In seven of their last 11 competitive matches, Leipzig scored over 1.5 goals.
- Seven of Leipzig’s eight home matches this season saw them score two or more goals each time.
- Freiburg conceded 2+ goals in their last three away league matches.
- Freiburg conceded 1.69 goals per game in this league campaign.
- In three of their last four Bundesliga matches against Freiburg, Leipzig scored three or more goals.
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Our Leipzig vs Freiburg Prediction
Leipzig are looking to consolidate their position in the top three, and the extra rest they got after the match against St Pauli was postponed. They have a mandate to improve after losing consecutive league games, and playing at home could work in their favour. Leipzig have seven wins from their eight home matches this season, while Freiburg are looking to improve their recent away record.
Leipzig won their last three home league matches against Freiburg by a 3-1 scoreline, and that’s why our Leipzig vs Freiburg prediction is Leipzig over 1.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leipzig Freiburg
| Leipzig vs Freiburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 1.84 | 1.81 | -1.6% |
| Draw | 4.17 | 4.1 | -1.7% |
| Freiburg wins | 4.32 | 4.8 | +11.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leipzig is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 54.3% and is now 55.2% (0.9%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
