England - Premier League
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by Joseph King | in Premier League Predictions
Matchday three in the English Premier League sees 12th-place Leeds United taking on 15th-placed Newcastle. Will the struggling Magpies grab their first three points of the season or will the Whites deny them at Elland Road? Check out our match prediction below!
Leeds got off to a dream start in their return to the Premier League but were quickly brought down to Earth by Arsenal in their next fixture. They’ll try to bounce back in front of the home fans where they’ve lost just once in their last 24 fixtures dating back to last season.
Newcastle have a great record against promoted sides and managed to win all six matchups against Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton in the 2024-25 season. However, it’s been a slow start to the current campaign and the constant transfer speculation surrounding their best player certainly isn’t helping. With only a single point from their first two games, Newcastle have to start picking up points fast to avoid falling any further behind in the race for the top four.
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The Best Betting Odds for Leeds v Newcastle Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.5 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.6 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.45 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Leeds and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Leeds vs Newcastle match is: Newcastle wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/08/2025 between Leeds and Newcastle in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 50.71% for a win of Leeds against Newcastle with odds of 3.7 at BC Game.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leeds vs Newcastle is 36.45% with odds of 3.62 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 12.84% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Leeds with odds of 2.16 at 22bet.
Leeds vs Newcastle Form
Leeds and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 |
|
15
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Leeds and Newcastle Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
18 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
28 Apr 2025 - Championship
21 Apr 2025 - Championship
12 Apr 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 May 2025 - Championship
18 Apr 2025 - Championship
8 Apr 2025 - Championship
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2025 - Premier League
11 May 2025 - Premier League
26 Apr 2025 - Premier League
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
18 May 2025 - Premier League
Leeds vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
50 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 May 2023 - Premier League
31 Dec 2022 - Premier League
22 Jan 2022 - Premier League
17 Sep 2021 - Premier League
26 Jan 2021 - Premier League
16 Dec 2020 - Premier League
Leeds - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Leeds opened the campaign with a 1-0 home win over Everton with new signing Lukas Nmecha slotting home from the penalty spot late on.
They faced a much stiffer challenge last weekend though, as they traveled to the Emirates to take on title hopefuls Arsenal. Leeds were powerless to resist the Gunners’ attack as they would ultimately fall to a 5-0 road defeat.
They had a chance to get right in their midweek EFL Cup match but wound up being eliminated on penalties following a 1-1 scoreline to an in-crisis Sheffield Wednesday side.
Newcastle are winless in their first two Premier League fixtures for the first time since 2021-22.
They would go on to finish 11th that season. For a club with top four ambitions, they’ll have to get back to winning ways quickly. They have a good chance to do just that on Saturday considering how dominant they have been against newly-promoted sides.
Newcastle’s season kicked off with a frustrating 0-0 away draw against Aston Villa, where they failed to break through despite having a man advantage for the final 25 minutes.
This was followed up by a 3-2 home loss to Liverpool, where Newcastle were reduced to 10 men just before half time. It was a valiant effort as they came back from a 2-0 deficit to level the scoreline at 2-2, only for a late Rio Ngumoha winner in stoppage time to break Newcastle fans’ hearts.
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Missing players
E. Ampadu
MidfielderA. Tanaka
ForwardD. Calvert-Lewin
F. Schar
MidfielderJ. Willock
S. Tonali
ForwardA. Isak
Joelinton
A. Gordon
Leeds & Newcastle Squad Analysis
Leeds manager Daniel Farke has two names on the injury list ahead of the visit of Newcastle. Defensive midfielder Ao Tanaka will miss out with a knee injury while centre back Ethan Ampadu is out with an ankle injury. Both players are expected back towards the end of next month.
Fans will be hoping to get a look at summer signing Dominic Calvert-Lewin after the Englishman made the switch on a free transfer. The 28-year-old came on as a sub in the EFL Cup defeat in midweek but has yet to make his league debut for the Whites.
Joel Piroe banged in 19 goals for Leeds in the Championship last year and has been the preferred striker so far this season. However, he’s struggled to make an impact so far with only one shot on target and six total touches in the opponent’s box in three appearances.
Newcastle are in the midst of an injury crisis with no fewer than five players missing for this match.
Eddie Howe will have a selection headache ahead of this match. Last year’s top scorer, Alexander Isak, is yet to feature as he tries to force a move to Liverpool. Anthony Gordon, meanwhile, serves the first of a three-match suspension after his sending off against the Reds.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, they’ll also be without key midfield duo Joelinton and Sandro Tonali, while defender Fabian Schar joins them on the treatment table.
Most goals and assists
Leeds
Newcastle
L. Nmecha
(1 Goals)
, 
J. Bogle
(1 Goals)
B. Guimaraes
(1 Goals)
, 
W. Osula
(1 Goals)
D. Burn
(1 Assists)
,
T. Livramento
(1 Assists)
Leeds - Newcastle Key Points
- Newcastle are a perfect 8-0-0 in their last eight matches against promoted sides.
- Leeds created only 0.17 expected goals in their heavy defeat to Arsenal last weekend.
- Newcastle’s underlying numbers have been strong, giving up a total of only 0.89 expected goals in their two games.
- They created 2.41 xG and six clear cut chances in those two matches.
- Newcastle have a solid away record dating back to last season, winning eight, drawing five and losing seven.
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Our Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction
Despite losing last week, Newcastle can take pride in their performance as they almost pulled off a comeback against the defending champions with 10 men. They're dealing with a few injuries but there is still plenty of quality in this team and they have been putting up strong underlying numbers.
Leeds performed well against Everton at this ground two weeks ago, but the Geordies present a different kind of challenge. Back the visitors to respond positively and secure their first win of the season. Our Everton vs Newcastle prediction: Newcastle wins the match.
Leeds vs Newcastle - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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