01 December 2022 - 19:00
- Day 3
World - World Cup
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Japan vs Spain Predictions & Betting Tips (World Cup)
by Indran |
Japan and Spain meet in this final round match of Group E where all four teams are in with a chance to qualify for the round of 16. Spain are the favourites to qualify as they lead the group by a single point and have a vastly superior goal difference of +7 with no other team in the group having a positive goal difference. They only require a draw in this match to secure a spot in the round of 16 while a win guarantees them top spot. Japan, after their massive upset win over Germany, only needed to beat Costa Rica in their last match to qualify but instead lost 1-0. They now need to win this match to be assured of a place in the knockout stage. A loss for them in this match will see them eliminated while a draw could be enough for them to qualify if the other match in the group ends in a draw. If Germany wins by a two or more goal margin and Japan draws, then the Blue Samurai will be eliminated. A single goal German win and a Japan draw will make the tie breaker for second place more complicated as it will depend on the Japanese getting a goal scoring draw to progress.
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The best odds for betting
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.5 | 4.33 | 1.5 |
|
|
7.8 | 4.62 | 1.46 |
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|
7.2 | 4.75 | 1.48 |
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|
6.75 | 4.5 | 1.49 |
|
|
6.8 | 4.65 | 1.45 |
|
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The bookies have Spain as heavy favourites for this match at odds of 1.36 while the Japanese are long shots at odds of 9.00. This should not scare off punters as the Japanese showed they are capable of beating the best on their day. The draw is available at odds of 4.75
Form
Ranking
Last matches
27 Nov 2022 - World Cup
23 Nov 2022 - World Cup
17 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies
27 Sep 2022 - International Friendlies
23 Sep 2022 - International Friendlies
27 Jul 2022 - East Asian Championship
27 Nov 2022 - World Cup
23 Nov 2022 - World Cup
17 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies
27 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
24 Sep 2022 - UEFA Nations League
12 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
Form Analysis
Japan had a dream start to their World Cup campaign as they beat four-time champions Germany in the opening round but then they lost to Costa Rica for the first time in their history. They were previously unbeaten against the Central Americans with three wins and a draw and could not have chosen a worse time to lose for the first time. Japan have only won one of their last four matches and will be determined to repeat their giant killing act of round one if they are to secure qualification and emulate their feat from the 2018 edition in which they reached the round of 16.
Spain recorded their biggest ever World Cup win when they beat Costa Rica in their first match and could have secured their qualification to the round of 16 with a win against Germany. They were well on their way to victory until the Germans equalized late in the match. Spain are unbeaten in their last four matches with three wins and a draw. They have only lost once in their last 13 matches across all competitions. There were concerns coming into the World Cup that goal scoring could be their Achilles' heel but 11 goals in their last three matches has squashed those doubts. Spain dominated possession in their opening two matches as they enjoyed 82% possession against Costa Rica while they had 65% against the Germans. They are bound to create more chances with this amount of ball possession.
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Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Squad analysis
Japan made five changes for their game against Costa Rica and more are likely after their defeat. Defenders Hiroki Sakai and Takehiro Tomiyasu have hamstring problems, Takumi Minamino is likely to play as well as Kaoru Mitoma. Spain have an injury worry over Gavi who missed Monday's training session. He's been impressive so far and his absence would affect the team. If he doesn't play then Koke is the likely replacement. Morata has been a substitute for the first two games but come on as a sub and has scored twice. Luis Enrique will have to decide whether to put him in his starting line-up or again make him a substitute.
Japan - Spain key points
- Only twice in Japan’s last nine matches has “both teams scored”.
- The Blue Samurai have failed to score in three of their last seven matches.
- Japan have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three matches.
- Spain are the leading goal scorers in the current tournament with eight goals.
- They have only lost twice in their last 17 matches across all competitions.
- Spain have kept clean sheets in four of their last seven matches.
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Our Japan vs Spain prediction
The only previous meeting between these sides was a friendly in 2001 which resulted in a 1-0 win to Spain. Japan will need their defence to be at its very best as Spain will dominate the possession and will be quick to pounce on any defensive lapses. Spain have won eight of their last nine final round group matches at the World Cup with the only exception being at the 2018 edition where they drew 2-2 with Morocco. They have never lost to Asian opposition at the World Cup in regulation time (three wins and two draws), though they were eliminated in 2002 by South Korea via penalties after one of those draws. We are backing Spain to lead at halftime and win the match.
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Other interesting tips
Spain to score over 1.5 goals - odds : 1.5 at Bet365
Spain have scored 11 goals in their last three matches at an average of 3.6 goals and we expect them to score at least two goals in this match.
Both teams to score: No - odds : 1.8 at Bet365
Japan have been held scoreless in three of their last seven matches while Spain have only conceded two goals in their last four matches.
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Japan vs Spain match : Frequently asked questions
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