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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
Stadio Friuli will play host to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifier between Italy and Israel on Tuesday evening. Gli Azzurri are in second place in Group I, while the Skyblue and Whites are third in the table. Let’s get into the match prediction.
Italy have featured in every World Cup since 1962, but their qualification for next year’s competition is still uncertain as they are currently six points behind the Group I leaders.
On the positive, Gli Azzurri do have a game in hand on leaders Norway and enter this fixture riding a four-match win streak after beating Estonia 3-1 on the road this past weekend.
The hosts have won both their home games in this competition so far, scoring seven goals while conceding none in those matches.
Meanwhile, Israel have nine points in six games and cannot qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup, but they are still in the running to secure a play-off berth.
The Skyblue and Whites' hopes of automatic qualification ended on Saturday night when they were handed a 5-0 hammering by the rampant Norway, led by Man City’s Erling Haaland.
The visitors have a record of W2 D1 L2 in their last five away games, which includes a 4-1 defeat to their upcoming opponents in the Nations League last October.
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The Best Betting Odds for Italy v Israel Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.17 | 7.5 | 15 |
|
|
1.18 | 8 | 15 |
|
|
1.18 | 6.5 | 12 |
|
|
1.17 | 6.5 | 11 |
|
|
1.36 | 3.6 | 9 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Israel?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Israel match is: Italy wins & over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/10/2025 between Italy and Israel in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 62.85% for a win of Italy against Israel with odds of 1.36 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Israel is 12.49% with odds of 8.06 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 24.66% chance ⭐ for a win of Israel vs Italy with odds of 16.1 at 22bet.
Italy - Israel Prediction and Best Odds:
| Italy Israel Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 62.85% | 1.36 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.9% | 1.38 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 62.08% | 1.97 at Unibet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Italy/Italy | 32.39% | 1.61 at Ladbrokes |
Italy vs Israel Form
Italy and Israel's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
18 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
|
3
|
12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 |
Italy and Israel Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
10 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Israel Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
9 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5 Sept 2017 - World Cup
5 Sept 2016 - World Cup
Italy against Israel Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Most goals and assists
Italy
Israel
M. Retegui
(5 Goals)
D. Peretz
(3 Goals)
Italy - Israel Key Points
- Eight of Italy’s last 10 matches have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Italy have scored two or more goals in four of their last six home games.
- Seven of Israel’s last 10 matches have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- A total of 18 goals were scored in Israel’s last three matches in this competition
- Three or more goals were scored in each of the last three matches between these sides.
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Our Italy vs Israel Prediction
These two sides are no strangers to each other, as this will be the fourth time they will meet in just over a year, and each of the past three encounters have delivered goals, including nine in the reverse fixture in this competition.
This week’s hosts have been rampant lately, netting 15 goals in their last four games, while a total of 18 goals were seen in Israel’s last three in this competition. Therefore, our Italy vs Israel prediction is Italy wins & over 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Italy Israel
| Italy vs Israel | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 1.2 | 1.17 | -2.5% |
| Draw | 6.5 | 7.5 | +15.4% |
| Israel wins | 15 | 15 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Italy is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 83.3% and is now 85.5% (2.1%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Italy vs. Israel game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Italy and Israel when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on World Cup!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
