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15 June 2024 - 15:00 

- Day 1

Europe - Euro

Italy
VS
Albania

Prediction :

Under 2.5

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Italy vs Albania Prediction & Betting Tips - Euro

 by Ian John in Euro Predictions

Saturday's final Euro 2024 fixture is the second game in Group B and sees defending Champions Italy taking on underdogs Albania. Luciano Spalletti's team has not had the best times since winning Euro 2020. They failed to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the second consecutive World Cup Finals they have missed and they finished a distant second to England in Group C, only pipping the Ukraine to second spot by having a better head-to-head record. They faced an Albania side coached by ex-Arsenal full-back Sylvinho and who were the surprise winners of Group E ahead of the Czech Republic and Poland. This would have been a straightforward task for Italy a few years back. Now it looks like a much tougher opening fixture for the Azzurri.
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The Best Betting Odds for Italy v Albania Match

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
1 41 501
Betfred
1.33 4.2 8.5
Ladbrokes
1.61 2.75 7.5
NetBet
1.31 4.4 8.5
1xbet
1.01 29 501
22bet
1.01 29 501
Betwinner
1.33 4.74 11.5
Stake
1.39 4.7 9.2
Melbet
1.39 4.54 8.8
Tonybet
1.41 4.7 8.6
Check all Italy vs Albania odds
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What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Albania?

Our prediction for the Italy vs Albania match is: Our prediction for the Italy v Albania Euro 2024 Group B game is that Under 2.5 Goals will be scored.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 6/15/24 between Italy and Albania in Euro :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 67.71% for a win of Italy against Albania with odds of 1.61 at Ladbrokes.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Albania is 20.57% with odds of 41 at Bet365.
  • Our prediction model gives a 11.72% chance ⭐ for a win of Albania vs Italy with odds of 501 at Bet365.

Italy - Albania Prediction and Best Odds:

Italy Albania Prediction Probability Odds
Italy wins 67.71% 1.61 at Ladbrokes
Under 2.5 53.53% 1.87 at 1xbet
Both Team To Score 47.92% 2.62 at Ladbrokes
Half-time / Full-time : Italy/Italy 33.1% 2.1 at Bet365

Italy vs Albania Form

Italy and Albania's standings in the Euro

Teams Pts P W D L GD
2
Italy
Italy
4 3 1 1 1 0
4
Albania
Albania
1 3 0 1 2 -2

Italy and Albania Last Matches

Italy
Italy Last matches
W D W W D W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

Total goals
2.17
BTTS
33%
Goals scored
1.67
Goals conceded
0.5
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%

9 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
1 :  0
Bosnia Herzegovina

4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
0 :  0
Turkey

24 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
2 :  0
Ecuador

21 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies

Venezuela
1 :  2
Italy

20 Nov 2023 - Euro

Ukraine
0 :  0
Italy

17 Nov 2023 - Euro

Italy
5 :  2
North Macedonia
Albania
Albania Last matches
D D L L W W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

Total goals
2.17
BTTS
33%
Goals scored
1.17
Goals conceded
1
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%

7 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies

Albania
3 :  1
Azerbaijan

3 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies

Albania
3 :  0
Liechtenstein

25 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies

Sweden
1 :  0
Albania

22 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies

Albania
0 :  3
Chile

20 Nov 2023 - Euro

Albania
0 :  0
Faroe Islands

17 Nov 2023 - Euro

Moldova
1 :  1
Albania

Italy against Albania : Head to Head (H2H)

Italy

100 %

Draw

0 %

Albania

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

Total goals
2.33
BTTS
33%
Goals scored (Team 1)
2
Goals scored (Team 2)
0.33
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%

16 Nov 2022 - International Friendlies

Albania
1 :  3
Italy

9 Oct 2017 - World Cup

Albania
0 :  1
Italy

24 Mar 2017 - World Cup

Italy
2 :  0
Albania
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Italy - Albania: Form Analysis

Italy come into their opening Euro 2024 game on the back of solid form. They have lost just one of their last ten matches, a 3-1 defeat to England at Wembley. They have drawn three of those games, including a crucial 0-0 draw in Poland against Ukraine, which earned them a spot in the finals. The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last six matches, winning both their two friends in March, beating Venezuela and Ecuador, before drawing 0-0 at home to Turkey and then beating Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 in their final European Championships warm-up game last week. Goals have been a little thin on the ground for Italy, who have scored just five in the last five games but on a more positive note, they have conceded just one goal over that period. They also have history on their side as they have won every game that they have played against Albania. 

Albania will be competing in just its second European Championships finals. They went out in the group stage back in 2016 but did earn their first victory at a European Finals with a 1-0 win over Romania. They were defeated just once in qualifying, one fewer loss than their opponents but had lost two back-to-back friends in March, losing at home to Chile 3-0 and then a 1-0 defeat away to Sweden. However, they bounced back in their final two warm-up fixtures for Euro 2024, defeating Liechtenstein 3-0 and then Azerbaijan 3-1, both games taking place in Hungary. The Albanian squad now includes a number of players playing club football at higher levels in the game, notably a number who play in Serie A in Italy including Kristjan Assllani, who is a part of Serie A Champions Inter Milan's first-team squad. It will be intriguing to see how this relatively young squad fare in what is Euro 2024's Group of Death.
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Italy against Albania Lineups: Starting 11

Italy

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
G. Donnarumma
2
G. Di Lorenzo
23
A. Bastoni
5
R. Calafiori
3
F. Dimarco
8
Jorginho
18
N. Barella
7
D. Frattesi
10
L. Pellegrini
14
F. Chiesa
9
G. Scamacca
15
T. Seferi
11
A. Broja
9
J. Asani
10
N. Bajrami
20
Y. Ramadani
21
K. Asllani
3
M. Mitaj
5
A. Ajeti
6
B. Djimsiti
4
E. Hysaj
23
T. Strakosha

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Albania

Missing players

Italy
Italy
Defender

R. Calafiori

Albania
Albania
Forward

M. Daku

Italy & Albania Squad Analysis

Italy's main injury news occurred before Luciano Spalletti had named his squad for the finals. Two key central defenders, Francesco Acerbi and Giorgio Scalvini were ruled out of the tournament through injury, Spalletti also decided against bringing in the likes of experienced Leonardo Spinazzola, Marco Verratti, Domenico Berardi and perhaps most surprisingly, Ciro Immobile. In-form Atalanta striker Gianluca Scamacca did earn a place in the squad. Spalletti will likely adopt a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Scamacca or Genoa frontman Mateo Retegui likely to lead the line. Key midfielder Nicolo Barella is a doubt for the opening game and may well not be risked ahead of games with Spain and Croatia. 

Albania boss Sylvinho has no injury worries ahead of the game with Italy. However, the former Arsenal full-back has a couple of selection posers. Who will start in goal is one with Brentford's Thomas Strakosha battling Mergim Berisha for the starting position between the sticks. Competition for places in midfield is also strong with several potential permutations available to the manager including four players who play their club football in Italy. Armando Broja will likely be the focal point in attack for the Albanians.

Italy - Albania Key Points

  1. There has been under 2.5 goals scored in four of Italy’s last five games.
  2. All of Albania’s last three matches at a Euro Finals had under 2.5 goals.
  3. Seven of Albania’s last 12 games have seen under 2.5 goals.
  4. Three of the four games played between Italy and Albania have seen under 2.5 goals
  5. Italy have conceded just one goal in their last five games.
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Our Italy vs Albania Prediction

Our prediction for the Italy v Albania Euro 2024 Group B game is that Under 2.5 Goals will be scored . The data for both teams shows a trend of solid defensive performances in the main, both in their most recent qualifying games and also in most of their warm-up fixtures for the tournament. Combine that with this being a must-win game for either team ahead of games with Croatia and Spain, and you have the ingredients for what will likely be a cagey, surprisingly closely-fought contest where just one goal may be the difference between the two teams

Prediction :

Under 2.5

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Italy vs Albania - Other Interesting Predictions

Italy to win to nil

Our primary prediction is that there will be few goals in this game, which feeds into our second prediction. As opening games in tournaments tend to be tight, this one will be no different. However, with games to come against Spain and Croatia, the need to pick up the maximum points for both teams here is huge. As such, I feel the extra quality Italy have, allied to that strong defence, means that they will just sneak the win here. As such, our second prediction is for Italy to win to nil.

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Italy vs Albania match : Frequently asked questions

The Group B clash between Italy and Albania in Euro 2024 will take place at Dortmund's Signal Iduna Park.

An all-German officiating team will take control of the game between Italy and Albania in Group B of Euro 2024.

Felix Zwayer will be the referee. He refereed 33 games in total this season, issuing 159 yellow cards and four red cards, two of which were straight reds. 

His assistant referees will be Stefan Lupp and Marco Achmuller. Daniel Siebert is the fourth official in Dortmund, while Bastian Dankert will be the VAR official on duty for the game. 

The Group B clash between Italy and Albania will be the first Euro 2024 game shown on the BBC, and the game will be shown live on BBC One.

However, if you are a punter who enjoys In-Play betting or you want to keep up with all the data and stats from the game, check out Sportytrader’s Euro 2024 Livescore page for a complete statistical breakdown of the game in real-time. 

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Italy vs Albania Prediction
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