Hamburg vs Leipzig Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Hamburg will hope to maintain their strong home form and defy Leipzig’s push of moving into the Bundesliga top four when the teams meet on Sunday in a matchday 24 fixture. This match between the 11th-placed ‘Red Shorts’ and the fifth-placed ‘Red Bulls’ comes with our prediction of a home win or draw.
Ahead of this round, Hamburg’s 26 points (W6, D8, L8) put them six points above the relegation zone. Leipzig have 41 points (W12, D5, L6) and are two points behind the top four, while being two points above sixth.
Hamburg drew 1-1 away at Mainz last week to continue their unbeaten run. The hosts are now undefeated in six league matches (W2, D4) as they aim to move away from the danger zone.
Driving that charge is their home form, as Hamburg lost only one of their last ten home Bundesliga fixtures (W5, D4). That run included staying unbeaten in their last seven games (W3, D4), raising hopes of at least a point from this match.
Leipzig drew 2-2 at home against Dortmund last weekend, for a second stalemate in a row. The Red Bulls haven’t quite dominated their opponents, though, winning only three of their last ten Bundesliga games (W3, D3, L4).
Even on the road, Leipzig have had an indifferent recent six-game form (W2, D2, L2).
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Hamburg v Leipzig Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.3 | 3.75 | 2.13 |
|
|
3.32 | 3.66 | 2.08 |
|
|
3.32 | 3.66 | 2.08 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Hamburg and Leipzig?
Our prediction for the Hamburg vs Leipzig match is: Hamburg or draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/03/2026 between Hamburg and Leipzig in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.1% for a win of Hamburg against Leipzig with odds of 3.46 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Hamburg vs Leipzig is 41.66% with odds of 3.81 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.24% chance ⭐ for a win of Leipzig vs Hamburg with odds of 2.16 at 888Starz.
Hamburg - Leipzig Prediction and Best Odds:
| Hamburg Leipzig Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 41.66% | 3.81 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 1.6 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 26.09% | 6.5 at Bet365 |
Hamburg vs Leipzig Form
Hamburg and Leipzig's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
65 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 |
|
13
|
38 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 |
Hamburg and Leipzig Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
7 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
Hamburg vs Leipzig Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Oct 2022 - DFB Pokal
23 Apr 2019 - DFB Pokal
8 Sept 2017 - Bundesliga
Hamburg against Leipzig Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
S. Tangvik
DefenderG. Gocholeishvili
W. Omari
D. Elfadli
MidfielderA. Sambi Lokonga
J. Dompe
R. Philippe
R. Glatzel
Y. Poulsen
L. Zingerle
DefenderE. Bitshiabu
M. Finkgrafe
B. Henrichs
L. Klostermann
MidfielderE. Banzuzi
J. Bakayoko
T. Gomis
C. Harder
Missing players
B. Jatta
A. Gronbaek
ForwardA. Rossing Lelesiit
P. Gulacsi
MidfielderX. Schlager
A. Ouedraogo
V. Gebel
ForwardS. Suleiman
Most goals and assists
Hamburg
Leipzig
F. Vieira
(7 Goals)
C. Baumgartner
(13 Goals)
F. Vieira
(5 Assists)
D. Raum
(7 Assists)
, 
Y. Diomande
(7 Assists)
Hamburg - Leipzig Key Points
- Hamburg are undefeated in their last six Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg remain unbeaten at home in their last seven league fixtures.
- Leipzig failed to win four of their last five Bundesliga matches.
- On the road, Leipzig won only two of their last six away league games.
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Our Hamburg vs Leipzig Prediction
Hamburg have calmly built up a comfortable six-point buffer with the relegation zone with a six-game unbeaten run. Their stubbornness was built on performances at home, where only one team defeated them in their last ten home Bundesliga fixtures. Leipzig will be wary of that threat, especially as the visitors haven’t been dominant in recent weeks.
Leipzig had a mixed bag in their last six league trips with two wins, draws, and losses each. That should boost Hamburg’s hopes, and our Hamburg vs Leipzig prediction is Hamburg or draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Hamburg Leipzig
| Hamburg vs Leipzig | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg wins | 3.33 | 3.46 | +3.9% |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.81 | +3.5% |
| Leipzig wins | 2.26 | 2.16 | -4.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 27.2% and is now 26.2% (-0.9%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
