Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips - Eredivisie
Netherlands - Eredivisie
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by Thobelani Moyo | in Eredivisie Predictions
Matchday 21 in the Eredivisie sees Excelsior take on Dutch giants Ajax at Stadion Woudestein. Excelsior are in 13th place in the league standings, while Ajax are in third place. Here's our match prediction.
Excelsior are still searching for their first Eredivisie win since the new calendar year. They began 2026 with a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of league leaders PSV Eindhoven and went on to draw three consecutive games.
Their most recent draw came against FC Twente over the weekend. Despite being overwhelming underdogs in that match, they snatched a point in a goalless away draw.
The Kralingers return to their humble abode seeking a positive outcome. So far, they have avoided defeat in their last two matches at Stadion Woudestein.
For the fourth time in five appearances, Ajax found themselves exiting the UEFA Champions League (league phase/group stage) after their narrow 2-1 defeat against Greek side Olympiacos on a Wednesday night.
The Amsterdammers now turn their attention to the Eredivisie to salvage some comfort. They have avoided defeat in their last seven matches. Their recent outing was a 2-0 home win over FC Volendam.
The Sons of the Gods have suffered three defeats in their last 20 league games (W10, D7). One of those losses came against Excelsior. This matchup sets up a revenge scenario for them.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Excelsior v Ajax Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.1 | 3.95 | 1.79 |
|
|
4.22 | 3.82 | 1.8 |
|
|
4.02 | 3.82 | 1.84 |
|
|
4 | 3.8 | 1.83 |
|
|
3.9 | 3.75 | 1.77 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Excelsior and Ajax?
Our prediction for the Excelsior vs Ajax match is: Ajax wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/02/2026 between Excelsior and Ajax in Eredivisie :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.99% for a win of Excelsior against Ajax with odds of 4.22 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Excelsior vs Ajax is 23.97% with odds of 4.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 48.03% chance ⭐ for a win of Ajax vs Excelsior with odds of 1.84 at Betwinner.
Excelsior - Ajax Prediction and Best Odds:
| Excelsior Ajax Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 48.03% | 1.84 at Betwinner |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.99% | 1.65 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score | 70.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Ajax | 17.56% | 5 at Bet365 |
Excelsior vs Ajax Form
Excelsior and Ajax's standings in the Eredivisie
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
56 | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | +21 |
|
13
|
38 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -13 |
Excelsior and Ajax Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
21 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
10 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
5 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
5 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
29 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
8 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
19 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
21 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
10 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
1 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
29 Oct 2025 - KNVB beker
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
11 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
11 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Dec 2025 - KNVB beker
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
Excelsior vs Ajax Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
24 Apr 2024 - Eredivisie
19 Aug 2023 - Eredivisie
29 Jan 2023 - Eredivisie
16 Oct 2022 - Eredivisie
13 Apr 2019 - Eredivisie
Excelsior against Ajax Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
C. Raatsie
DefenderM. Nolan
S. Henderikx
MidfielderA. Carlen
L. Schouten
S. Janssen
C. Nadje
ForwardM. Jonathans
G. De Regt
M. Van Duinen
P. Reverson
J. Heerkens
DefenderA. Bouwman
G. Alders
T. Tomiyasu
T. Peters
A. Ouazane
J. Johnson
W. Weghorst
S. Berghuis
O. Edvardsen
Missing players
K. Itakura
Most goals and assists
Excelsior
Ajax
N. Naujoks
(10 Goals)
M. Godts
(17 Goals)
G. De Regt
(7 Assists)
M. Godts
(12 Assists)
Excelsior - Ajax Key Points
- Excelsior Rotterdam are winless in their last four league games.
- Ajax have won five of their last seven league games.
- Excelsior Rotterdam are winless in their last nine home league games against Ajax.
- Ajax are unbeaten in their last three away league games.
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Our Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction
Excelsior are on the verge of completing a league double over Ajax for the first time in their history. They have already gotten the better of their opponents this season. However, replicating such a feat will be an arduous task. Their performance since the turn of the calendar year has yet to meet expectations.
Ajax have been presented with a shot at redemption after their UCL setback. Despite signs of a floundering performance, they should have enough to secure an important win here. They have won three of their last four away matches in this fixture. Our Excelsior vs Ajax prediction: Ajax wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Excelsior Ajax
| Excelsior vs Ajax | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior wins | 4.4 | 4.22 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 3.82 | 4.1 | +7.3% |
| Ajax wins | 1.77 | 1.84 | +4.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ajax is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 4.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 56.5% and is now 54.3% (-2.1%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
