Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Thobelani Moyo | in AFCON Predictions
Ethiopia plays host to Sao Tome & Principe at Dire Dawa Stadium in the second leg of the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. The home team heads into this match, trying to protect a three-goal lead. Here's our match prediction.
Ethiopia had little to no trouble seeing off Sao Tome & Principe's threat in the first leg of the Africa Cup of Nations preliminary round qualifiers. They won 3-0 on the road with Abel Yalew scoring a brace in that match.
That result marked their second win in three competitive matches. Before this, the Walia Ibex had suffered a 3-1 away defeat to Burkina Faso in the FIFA World Cup African qualifiers. It was their third defeat in four games, resulting in their elimination from the tournament.
Sao Tome & Principe had their backs against the wall in the first leg of the Africa Cup of Nations preliminary round qualifiers. They showed little to nothing with their performance against Ethiopia, losing 3-0.
Overturning a three-goal deficit won't be an easy feat, especially considering they've won just one of their last 20 matches across all competitions (D4, L15). Additionally, they've lost eight of their last nine matches and failed to score in five outings.
Away from home, the Elephants' performance has left much to be desired. They've gone 13 matches without a win since a 3-1 win against Mauritius in October 2019.
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Ethiopia v Sao Tome and Principe Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.38 | 4.4 | 7.8 |
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1.32 | 5.3 | 9.2 |
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|
1.4 | 4.64 | 8 |
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1.36 | 4.2 | 7.8 |
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1.36 | 4.2 | 7.8 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Ethiopia and Sao Tome and Principe?
Our prediction for the Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe match is: Ethiopia wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/03/2026 between Ethiopia and Sao Tome and Principe in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 63.79% for a win of Ethiopia against Sao Tome and Principe with odds of 1.45 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe is 8.96% with odds of 5.3 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.24% chance ⭐ for a win of Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia with odds of 9.2 at Melbet.
Ethiopia - Sao Tome and Principe Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ethiopia Sao Tome and Principe Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia wins | 63.79% | 1.45 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.62% | 1.99 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score: No | 79.17% | 1.65 at Betway |
| Half-time / Full-time : Ethiopia/Ethiopia | 37.98% | 2 at LSbet |
Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe Form
Ethiopia and Sao Tome and Principe Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Mar 2026 - AFCON
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
16 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Oct 2024 - AFCON
9 Sept 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Mar 2026 - AFCON
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
12 Oct 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Mar 2026 - AFCON
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Mar 2026 - AFCON
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2024 - World Cup
22 Mar 2024 - AFCON
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2024 - World Cup
26 Mar 2024 - AFCON
17 Nov 2023 - World Cup
Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Mar 2026 - AFCON
Ethiopia - Sao Tome and Principe Key Points
- Ethiopia have won two of their last three matches.
- Sao Tome & Principe have lost eight of their last nine matches.
- Ethiopia have won four of their last seven matches across all competitions.
- Sao Tome & Principe have lost their last four away matches.
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Our Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe Prediction
Ethiopia have a three-goal cushion and should be confident of getting the job done in the return leg to progress to the next round. Their form has not been great, but at the moment, one can not deny that they are the better side in this fixture.
The home team have won two of their last three matches in all competitions and are up against a Sao Tome & Principe side that have lost eight of their last nine matches and each of their last four on the road. Our Ethiopia vs Sao Tome & Principe prediction: Ethiopia wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ethiopia Sao Tome and Principe
| Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia wins | 1.74 | 1.45 | -16.7% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 5.3 | +39.5% |
| Sao Tome and Principe wins | 5.44 | 9.2 | +69.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ethiopia is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 16.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 57.5% and is now 69.0% (11.5%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Ethiopia vs. Sao Tome and Principe game
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
