Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
History will be made on Sunday when top seed Carlos Alcaraz faces fourth-seeded Novak Djokovic. It's the final of the outdoor hard court Australian Open, a title Djokovic has won ten times and Alcaraz is yet to win. Time for our match prediction.
A win for Alcaraz will see him become the youngest male player to win all four Grand Slam titles. The top seed is already guaranteed to end this Grand Slam tournament as the world number one. He already created some history in his semi-final against Alexander Zverev as you will read in the form section of this Australian Open final preview. Can he defeat Djokovic to win the title?
Perhaps it is fate that Djokovic wins this title. He looked down and out in the last eight and struggled in his semi-final. The Serb has already won the Australian Open a record ten times. A win on Sunday would be a record-extending 25th Grand Slam title.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.34 | 3.28 |
|
|
1.34 | 3.28 |
|
|
1.3 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.31 | 3.15 |
|
|
1.31 | 3.2 |
|
Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic match is: more than 0.5 tie-breaks.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic game on 01/02/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 60.11% chance to win against Novak Djokovic according to Shangrila ⭐ with the odds of 1.37.
- Novak Djokovic has a 39.89% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 3.55 at Tonybet.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 60.11 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 60.11 % |
| Novak Djokovic | 39.89 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
29 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
27 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
24 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
22 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
30 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
24 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
8 Nov 2025 - ATP Athens Hellenic Championship
7 Nov 2025 - ATP Athens Hellenic Championship
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
5 Sept 2025 - ATP US Open
21 Jan 2025 - ATP Australian Open
4 Aug 2024 - Olympic Tournament
14 Jul 2024 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
18 Nov 2023 - ATP Finals
20 Aug 2023 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Novak Djokovic: Form Analysis
Carlos Alcaraz is in unchartered territory in Melbourne. Before this 2026 Grand Slam, the Spaniard had never made it past the last eight of this tournament. This year he made it to the semi-finals without dropping a set.
That all changed on Friday when Alcaraz had to go to five sets to defeat third-seed Alexander Zverev. The match lasted 327 minutes and there's only been two longer matches in tournament history. He did struggle physically in that match and will appreciate a rest on Saturday.
This is the tenth match between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. It's the Serb who has a 5-4 lead and is 2-1 up on this surface. One was in last year's Australian Open with Djokovic winning in four sets. Six of those previous matches have seen a tie-break played, three had a couple.
A long wait for Grand Slam title number 25.
Novak Djokovic last won a Grand Slam title at the 2023 US Open. His dramatic win in the last four over defending champion Jannik Sinner ended a run of four successive Grand Slam semi-final defeats. His five-set win lasted just over four hours.
Djokovic has had the advantage of playing one fewer match than Alcaraz. He received a walkover in round four when JJakub Mensik withdrew. Then in the last eight, he was two sets down to Lorenzo Musetti when the Italian retired.
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Carlos Alcaraz & Novak Djokovic Squad Analysis
Carlos Alcaraz - Novak Djokovic Key Points
- Six of the previous nine matches played between Alcaraz and Djokovic have included a tie-break.
- Three of their nine previous matches saw a couple of tie-breaks played.
- Alcaraz played three tie-breaks in his semi-final win over Zverev.
- Alcaraz has played a tie-break in four of his six matches on the way to this final.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Prediction
We look like being in for a great final on Sunday. Many will be glad that it's not another Alcaraz v Sinner final but what a title win it would be for Novak Djokovic. Can he at the age of 38 beat Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in the space of three days?
Picking an outright winner in this final is not an easy task. Alcaraz has played for over 17 hours in this tournament, and has some injury problems. Djokovic hasn't won a Grand Slam since 2023. Our main Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic prediction is more than 0.5 tie-breaks.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Alternative Predictions
More than 9.5 games in set one
The last three matches between these two players have seen more than 9.5 games played in the opening set. That stat has also come up in four of the last five matches Alcaraz has played in this tournament and nine of his last 11 sets and the last three Djokovic has played.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic game!
When you place a bet on the match between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
