Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Premier League Predictions
Burnley face a tricky home game against high-flying Chelsea as action resumes in the English Premier League on matchday 12. This match on Saturday in Lancashire between the 17th-placed Clarets and the third-placed Blues comes with our prediction of more than 2.5 goals.
After 11 rounds of action, Burnley's ten points put them just above the relegation zone on goal difference. Chelsea's 20 points put them two points behind Manchester City and only one above Sunderland. With an important game against Barcelona on the horizon in the Champions League, Chelsea could be forgiven for rotating their squad. Therein lies Burnley's chance, although they haven't been consistent overall.
Their home form isn't any solace, as the Clarets have struggled for momentum in games played here this season. Burnley have also historically struggled against Chelsea, especially at Turf Moor, which adds further intrigue to this match. Can the Clarets turn things around and hurt the Blues? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Burnley v Chelsea Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
|
|
5.8 | 4.4 | 1.58 |
|
|
6.05 | 4.22 | 1.54 |
|
|
5.6 | 4.2 | 1.55 |
|
|
6.4 | 4.7 | 1.52 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Chelsea match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/11/2025 between Burnley and Chelsea in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 21.07% for a win of Burnley against Chelsea with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Chelsea is 18.36% with odds of 4.7 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 60.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Burnley with odds of 1.6 at Bet365.
Burnley - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Burnley Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 60.57% | 1.6 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.97% | 1.86 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 61.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea | 23.33% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
Burnley vs Chelsea Form
Burnley and Chelsea's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
31 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | +10 |
|
19
|
13 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -19 |
Burnley and Chelsea Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Nov 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
8 Nov 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
31 Oct 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
26 Oct 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Nov 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
31 Oct 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
17 Oct 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
5 Oct 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
8 Nov 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
26 Oct 2025 - Premier League
24 Oct 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Oct 2025 - National League Cup
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
23 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
Burnley vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Mar 2024 - Premier League
7 Oct 2023 - Premier League
5 Mar 2022 - Premier League
6 Nov 2021 - Premier League
31 Jan 2021 - Premier League
31 Oct 2020 - Premier League
Burnley - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Burnley have won three of their 11 matches in the league this season (D1, L7) and went into the break on the back of a 3-2 loss at West Ham. That was their fifth defeat in seven competitive matches, winning the other two.
Their home form has been middling, and the need of the hour would be to target consistency. The Clarets have won two and lost two of their five home Premier League matches, while drawing another.
Chelsea won their last six away Premier League matches at Turf Moor.
The Blues have six wins in the league this season and went into the break after winning 3-0 at home against Wolves. That marked a fourth win for the visitors across five league games, with only a 2-1 defeat to Sunderland being the exception.
Chelsea have improved their away form too, winning on each of their last two league trips. In both those games, they kept a clean sheet as well, as the Blues defeated Nottingham Forest (3-0) and Tottenham (1-0).
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Players list
M. Dubravka
DefenderK. Walker
A. Tuanzebe
M. Esteve
Q. Hartman
MidfielderF. Luis
J. Cullen
L. Ugochukwu
Z. Flemming
ForwardL. Tchaouna
J. Anthony
R. Sanchez
DefenderR. James
T. Chalobah
T. Adarabioyo
M. Cucurella
MidfielderA. Santos
E. Fernandez
ForwardP. Neto
Joao Pedro
J. Gittens
L. Delap
Substitutes
M. Weiss
DefenderL. Pires
H. Ekdal
MidfielderH. Mejbri
J. Laurent
L. Foster
A. Broja
J. Bruun Larsen
M. Edwards
F. Jorgensen
DefenderB. Badiashile
M. Gusto
J. Hato
J. Acheampong
MidfielderM. Caicedo
ForwardEstevao
A. Garnacho
M. Guiu
Missing players
C. Roberts
L. Beyer
ForwardZ. Amdouni
L. Colwill
MidfielderD. Essugo
R. Lavia
ForwardM. Mudryk
Burnley & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Burnley have only a few injuries to play with, as Zeki Amdouni, Jordan Beyer, and Connor Roberts are missing in action. An interesting dimension would be the presence of Lesley Ugochukwu, who was bought from Chelsea over the summer.
The Clarets have usually played in a 4-2-3-1 formation with Zian Flemming leading the line. Jaidon Anthony on the left flank is another key player for the hosts with four goals and one assist to his name in the league.
Flemming has three goals in four league appearances this season for Burnley.
Chelsea have a lengthier absence list to contend with, with Romeo Lavia, Cole Palmer, and Levi Colwill still out of action. There are question marks over Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernandes, but the duo skipped international calls and could be fit for selection here.
The Blues will also line up in their favored 4-2-3-1 formation with Liam Delap likely to play striker in a revamped XI. Watch out for Alejandro Garnacho on the left flank, with the Argentina winger settling down recently with two goals and two assists in his last four Chelsea appearances.
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Chelsea
J. Anthony
(5 Goals)
, 
Z. Flemming
(5 Goals)
E. Fernandez
(6 Goals)
, 
Joao Pedro
(6 Goals)
Q. Hartman
(4 Assists)
R. James
(4 Assists)
Burnley - Chelsea Key Points
- Burnley’s matches averaged 3.27 goals per match this season, and only Manchester United’s matches have a better average.
- Chelsea’s away games averaged 3.40 goals per match this season.
- In four of Burnley’s last six league games, over 2.5 goals were scored.
- Seven of Chelsea’s last eight competitive matches produced three or more goals.
- In the Premier League too, seven of Chelsea’s last eight matches saw more than two goals scored.
- Four of Chelsea’s five away league games this season saw at least three goals scored.
- In ten of the last 12 matches between Chelsea and Burnley, three or more goals were scored, including the last three.
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Our Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction
Only goal difference saved Burnley from spending the international break in the relegation zone, while Chelsea are comfortably in the top three. The Clarets would love to start their revival at home, but Chelsea have been a tough opponent to face. The Blues have particularly enjoyed visiting Turf Moor recently and could continue that run with more goals this weekend. Even this season, across competitions, Chelsea have been part of high-scoring games.
Chelsea's away games this season have been full of action, and that's why our Burnley vs Chelsea prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Burnley vs Chelsea - Other Interesting Predictions
Estevao to score anytime
Estevao has been blowing hot and cold in recent games but should fancy a longer run now. He has been creating chances for the Blues and averages 0.79 big chances created per 90 minutes in the league this season. With an average of 9.26 touches per match in the opposition box, he can be a handful this week for the Burnley defenders.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Burnley Chelsea
| Burnley vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins | 5.8 | 6.4 | +10.3% |
| Draw | 4 | 4.7 | +17.5% |
| Chelsea wins | 1.55 | 1.6 | +3.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 64.5% and is now 62.5% (-2.0%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Burnley vs. Chelsea game
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Burnley vs Chelsea - FAQs
The Burnley vs Chelsea English Premier League match will be shown live on the TNT Sports 1 and TNT Sports Ultimate TV Channels. Viewers in the UK can also stream the game live if they have purchased the Discovery+ subscription package that includes TNT Sports and can be streamed via the Discovery+ app.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our English Premier League Livescore page!
This is not a match that would rank high on Burnley's list. The Clarets have won only one of their last 18 Premier League matches against Chelsea (D5, L12).
Chelsea wouldn't mind making the trip to Lancashire, as they have eight wins out of their nine Premier League away games at Turf Moor, drawing the other.
The Blues have also won their last six Premier League away matches against Burnley. Having scored at least three goals in each of the five matches in this run, this weekend could see a flurry of action.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
