England - Carabao Cup
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by Steve Ashfield | in Carabao Cup Predictions
Premier League Burnley hope to avoid an upset as they host League One Cardiff City in the Carabao Cup. This is a match in the third round of the competition. Can the Bluebirds get a big win at Turf Moor? Read our match prediction below.
Burnley have made a steady start to life back in the Premier League. A 1-1 home draw with Nottingham Forest on Saturday saw them end the day in 16th place. They have gone three league games without a win but their losses were to Liverpool and Manchester United.
Round two of this year's Carabao Cup saw them beat League One Derby County 2-1 at home, needing a 91st minute winner.
Cardiff City were in the same division as Burnley last season. However, while Burnley won promotion, Cardiff were relegated to League One. The Welsh club are going well this season and are fourth in the table, two points behind the automatic promotion spots.
They suffered a blow on Saturday though when being beaten 3-1 at home by leaders Bradford City. That ended a run of ten games without defeat. It's not been too hard a route to the third round with home wins over League Two sides Swindon and Cheltenham.
We tip Burnley to win this match.
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The Best Betting Odds for Burnley v Cardiff Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.86 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.95 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.6 | 3.95 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Cardiff?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Cardiff match is: Burnley to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/09/2025 between Burnley and Cardiff in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.2% for a win of Burnley against Cardiff with odds of 1.95 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Cardiff is 24.48% with odds of 4.15 at Shangrila.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.32% chance ⭐ for a win of Cardiff vs Burnley with odds of 6 at Bwin.
Burnley - Cardiff Prediction and Best Odds:
| Burnley Cardiff Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins | 39.2% | 1.95 at Betway |
| Under 2.5 | 59.38% | 1.98 at Betobet |
| Both Team To Score | 40.42% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Burnley | 23.57% | 5 at Bet365 |
Burnley vs Cardiff Form
Burnley and Cardiff Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
14 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
14 Sept 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 May 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2025 - League One
16 Sept 2025 - EFL Trophy
13 Sept 2025 - League One
30 Aug 2025 - League One
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - League One
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2025 - League One
30 Aug 2025 - League One
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
16 Aug 2025 - League One
12 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
2 Aug 2025 - League One
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sept 2025 - EFL Trophy
13 Sept 2025 - League One
23 Aug 2025 - League One
19 Aug 2025 - League One
7 Aug 2025 - League One
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Burnley vs Cardiff Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Mar 2025 - Championship
17 Aug 2024 - Championship
8 May 2023 - Championship
13 Apr 2019 - Premier League
30 Sept 2018 - Premier League
Players list
M. Weiss
DefenderJ. Worrall
A. Tuanzebe
O. Sonne
B. Humphreys
L. Pires
MidfielderJ. Banel
H. Mejbri
E. Clark
ForwardM. Tresor
A. Barnes
N. Trott
DefenderC. Chambers
W. Fish
P. Ng
J. Bagan
MidfielderR. Wintle
D. Turnbull
O. Kellyman
T. Nyakuhwa
ForwardC. Willock
Y. Salech
Substitutes
V. Hladky
MidfielderG. Brierley
M. Campbell
E. Clark
O. Pimlott
ForwardJ. Banel
A. Barnes
M. Tresor
B. Pouani
M. Turner
DefenderG. Osho
L. Giles
MidfielderD. Mafico
C. Willock
T. Nyakuhwa
D. Turnbull
Y. Salech
O. Kellyman
Missing players
C. Roberts
J. Beyer
ForwardZ. Amdouni
J. Bruun Larsen
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Cardiff
Z. Flemming
(4 Goals)
, 
J. Anthony
(4 Goals)
Y. Salech
(7 Goals)
Q. Hartman
(4 Assists)
J. Bagan
(1 Assists)
,
C. Chambers
(1 Assists)
Burnley - Cardiff Key Points
- Both of Burnley's wins this season have come on home soil.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last nine games against Cardiff.
- Cardiff last won an away game against Burnley in 1988.
- Burnley have won their last three home games against Cardiff by an aggregate score of 10-0.
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Our Burnley vs Cardiff Prediction
Burnley have a breather from all the tough games they've been having in the Premier League. They haven't had an easy fixture list this season but have managed to earn four points from five games. All those points have come at Turf Moor as did their Carabao Cup second round victory.
Cardiff City are looking to bounce back and win promotion to the Championship. They are fourth in the table but lost 3-1 at home on Saturday. Only a couple of League Two clubs have been beaten so far in this competition. Our Burnley v Cardiff prediction is Burnley to win.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Burnley Cardiff
| Burnley vs Cardiff | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins | 1.39 | 1.86 | +33.8% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 3.6 | -24.2% |
| Cardiff wins | 6.5 | 3.8 | -41.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Burnley is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 33.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 71.9% and is now 53.8% (-18.2%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Burnley vs. Cardiff game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Burnley and Cardiff? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Carabao Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
