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by Devesh Jaganath in World Cup Predictions
Group A at the CAF 2026 World Cup qualifiers will draw to a close on Sunday when Burkina Faso play host to Ethiopia in Ouagadougou. The Stallions are in second place in the group standings, while the Walia Ibex are fifth. Let’s get into the match prediction.
While Burkina Faso cannot win this group, this match still carries major importance for them as it will determine whether they will enter the second round of the competition.
The Stallions currently hold the fourth and final second-round qualification spot with 12 points, but any of the five teams below them in the table can still overtake them this weekend.
The hosts will be carrying confidence into this fixture, though, having beaten Sierra Leone 1-0 last week. They are now unbeaten in their last six matches in this competition and kept clean sheets in their last three.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia have earned nine points in as many games in this qualification cycle (W2 D3 L4), which is their best return in this competition since the 2014 edition.
However, despite beating Guinea-Bissau 1-0 in their last match, their World Cup qualification hopes still came to an end as they trail their upcoming opponents by nine points.
When these sides met in the reverse fixture, Ethiopia suffered a 3-0 defeat, and they are now winless in their last four matches against this opponent (D1 L3).
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The Best Betting Odds for Burkina Faso v Ethiopia Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.25 | 5.25 | 17 |
|
|
1.25 | 5 | 13 |
|
|
1.25 | 4.75 | 12 |
|
|
1.22 | 5.5 | 15 |
|
|
1.26 | 4.9 | 9.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Burkina Faso and Ethiopia?
Our prediction for the Burkina Faso vs Ethiopia match is: Burkina Faso wins and BTTS (NO).
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/10/2025 between Burkina Faso and Ethiopia in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.86% for a win of Burkina Faso against Ethiopia with odds of 1.26 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burkina Faso vs Ethiopia is 23.68% with odds of 5.5 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.46% chance ⭐ for a win of Ethiopia vs Burkina Faso with odds of 17 at Bet365.
Burkina Faso vs Ethiopia Form
Burkina Faso and Ethiopia's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
18 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
|
5
|
9 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 |
Burkina Faso and Ethiopia Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
16 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
6 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
16 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
6 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - AFCON
10 Oct 2024 - AFCON
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
13 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
2 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
2 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
16 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Oct 2024 - AFCON
9 Sep 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sep 2025 - World Cup
5 Sep 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
12 Oct 2024 - AFCON
4 Sep 2024 - AFCON
9 Jun 2024 - World Cup
Burkina Faso vs Ethiopia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Nov 2023 - World Cup
17 Jan 2022 - AFCON
Missing players
S. Banse
Burkina Faso - Ethiopia Key Points
- Four of Burkina Faso’s are unbeaten in their last six matches in this competition.
- Burkina Faso have kept clean sheets in each of their last three matches in this competition.
- Each of Ethiopia’s last four games have ended as BTTS (NO).
- Ethiopia have failed to score in three of their four away games in this competition.
- The reverse fixture between these sides ended with only one team scoring.
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Our Burkina Faso vs Ethiopia Prediction
Ethiopia have been competitive in these qualifiers, but they have not been able to keep up with the group leaders. The rebuild will now commence for the next World Cup cycle, as they also failed to qualify for the AFCON later this year.
For Burkina Faso, it all comes down to this match as they look to secure a spot in the second round. Goal difference could be crucial, so we’re expecting the hosts to prioritise the clean sheet in this match. Our Burkina Faso vs Ethiopia prediction is Burkina Faso wins and BTTS (NO).
Get up to £30 to bet on the Burkina Faso vs. Ethiopia game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Burkina Faso and Ethiopia when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on World Cup!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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