Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Borussia Dortmund could confirm their Champions League qualification for next season with a win over Freiburg in this Bundesliga matchday 31 game. This match on Sunday between the 2nd-placed Prussians and the 7th-placed ‘Breisgau Brazilians’ comes with our prediction of less than 3.5 goals.
Ahead of this round, Dortmund’s 64 points (W19, D7, L4) give them a five-point lead over third and a chance to confirm a top-four finish with a win. Freiburg have 43 points (W12, D7, L11) and are just one point above eighth in a race to qualify for Europe next season.
Dortmund lost 2-1 away at Hoffenheim last weekend for a second consecutive defeat in the league. They haven’t lost three competitive games in a row this season, so a proud record is on the line.
Their home record has been impressive, with eight wins in their last ten Bundesliga games (L2), although those two defeats have come since the last week of February.
Freiburg crashed out of the DFB Pokal on Thursday with a defeat to Stuttgart, ending their four-game winning streak. They are still fighting in the UEFA Europa League with the first leg of the semis set for next week.
That could make things tricky as they aim for European qualification, although two wins on the bounce on the road give them confidence ahead of this trip.
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Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.39 | 5.4 | 7.4 |
|
|
1.38 | 5.05 | 7.8 |
|
|
1.38 | 5.05 | 7.8 |
|
|
1.4 | 5.25 | 7 |
|
|
1.38 | 5 | 7.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg?
Our prediction for the Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg match is: less than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/04/2026 between Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 61.91% for a win of Borussia Dortmund against Freiburg with odds of 1.42 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg is 5.66% with odds of 5.4 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.44% chance ⭐ for a win of Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund with odds of 8.1 at 888Starz.
Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| Borussia Dortmund Freiburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 61.91% | 1.42 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.72% | 1.53 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Borussia Dortmund/Borussia Dortmund | 30.92% | 2 at Bet365 |
Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Form
Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
73 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | +36 |
|
7
|
47 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -6 |
Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
9 Feb 2024 - Bundesliga
16 Sept 2023 - Bundesliga
4 Feb 2023 - Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund against Freiburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Meyer
DefenderD. Svensson
Y. Couto
F. Mane
L. Reggiani
MidfielderS. Ozcan
C. Chukwuemeka
F. Silva
M. Albert
F. Muller
DefenderP. Treu
K. Steinmann
A. Jung
R. Tarnutzer
J. Beste
C. Irie
M. Philipp
Missing players
N. Sule
MidfielderE. Can
F. Nmecha
K. Adeyemi
M. Rosenfelder
MidfielderD. Kyereh
P. Osterhage
Most goals and assists
Borussia Dortmund
Freiburg
S. Guirassy
(17 Goals)
I. Matanovic
(11 Goals)
J. Ryerson
(15 Assists)
V. Grifo
(4 Assists)
, 
J. Manzambi
(4 Assists)
, 
M. Ginter
(4 Assists)
Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg Key Points
- Ten of Freiburg’s last 12 Bundesliga matches produced under 3.5 goals.
- Dortmund conceded 1.03 goals per game this season and only Bayern have a better defensive record.
- Five of Dortmund’s last six league games have seen fewer than four goals scored.
- In six of Freiburg’s last seven away league trips, three or fewer goals were scored.
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Our Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction
After briefly threatening to narrow the gap to leaders Bayern Munich, Dortmund have slipped with consecutive league defeats. They are still well-placed to confirm a top-four finish, as only a win is enough to do so. With no more distractions in the season, the Prussians can achieve that against a Freiburg side that has a Europa League semi-final coming up.
Dortmund have one of the best defensive records, and this match could follow suit with goals coming at a premium. Our Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg prediction is less than 3.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Borussia Dortmund Freiburg
| Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 1.55 | 1.42 | -8.4% |
| Draw | 4.73 | 5.4 | +14.2% |
| Freiburg wins | 6.4 | 8.1 | +26.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Borussia Dortmund is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 64.5% and is now 70.4% (5.9%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
