Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
It’s the second Bundesliga Der Klassiker of the 2025-26 season and one with high stakes as Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayern Munich on matchday 24. This match on Saturday at Signal Iduna Park between the second-placed Prussians and the first-placed Bavarians comes with our prediction of less than 3.5 goals.
Dortmund’s 52 points (W15, D7, L1) put them eight points behind leaders Bayern and six points above third. Bayern have 60 points (W19, D3, L1) and are topping the charts on almost every parameter. Considering the eight-point gap, anything less than a win for Dortmund will nearly end the title race.
The hosts will take comfort from their recent winning run in the Bundesliga, where they are unbeaten in their last 16 outings. Even at home, 13 wins from their last 15 Bundesliga games at this venue make Dortmund a formidable opponent. Bayern will be confident of their chances, as they are unbeaten in their last 20 away matches in the Bundesliga. Which side will blink in this high-stakes clash? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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4.5 | 4.7 | 1.66 |
|
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4.68 | 4.64 | 1.61 |
|
|
4.68 | 4.64 | 1.61 |
|
|
4.33 | 4.5 | 1.65 |
|
|
4.4 | 4.5 | 1.64 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich?
Our prediction for the Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich match is: less than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/02/2026 between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.78% for a win of Borussia Dortmund against Bayern Munich with odds of 4.86 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich is 14.79% with odds of 4.81 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 52.43% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund with odds of 1.67 at Tonybet.
Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich Prediction and Best Odds:
| Borussia Dortmund Bayern Munich Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 52.43% | 1.67 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.46% | |
| Both Team To Score | 55.42% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Bayern Munich | 18.62% | 5.25 at LSbet |
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Form
Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
89 | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 |
|
2
|
73 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | +36 |
Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
9 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
11 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
6 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2024 - Bundesliga
4 Nov 2023 - Bundesliga
1 Apr 2023 - Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich: Form Analysis
Dortmund endured a heartbreaking 4-1 loss away at Atalanta on Wednesday in the Champions League playoffs, exiting the tournament. They are still in control of their league destiny, where they drew 2-2 away at Leipzig last matchday.
That result extended their unbeaten league run to 16 matches (W11, D5), including six consecutive wins prior to that Leipzig draw. The Prussians are the only unbeaten side in home games this season, winning nine of 11 Bundesliga matches at Signal Iduna Park.
Dortmund won six home league games in a row.
Bayern won 3-2 at home against Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend in the league, making it four consecutive wins in all competitions. Their league dominance is based mostly on their early-season dominance, and the Bavarians have failed to win two of their last five Bundesliga matches (W3, D1, L1).
Their away form has been comprehensive, as Bayern dropped points only on two league trips this season. One of those came at Hamburger (2-2) in February, so Dortmund fans will hope their side can catch the leaders cold.
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Borussia Dortmund against Bayern Munich Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Meyer
DefenderA. Kabar
L. Reggiani
R. Bensebaini
S. Ozcan
J. Bellingham
J. Brandt
S. Inacio
S. Guirassy
S. Ulreich
J. Bartl
DefenderK. Min-jae
R. Guerreiro
MidfielderJ. Musiala
T. Bischof
L. Karl
L. Goretzka
N. Jackson
Missing players
N. Sule
F. Mane
A. Davies
Borussia Dortmund & Bayern Munich Squad Analysis
Julian Ryerson is suspended for Dortmund, who are also missing a few players due to injuries. Emre Can, Filippo Mane, and Niklas Sule are likely to miss out for the home side.
The hosts are likely to stick to their 3-4-2-1 formation with Serhou Guirassy set to start as their lone striker. Right behind him, the duo of Julian Brandt and Maximilian Beier are set to lead their push for goals.
Guirassy has 11 league goals this season for Dortmund.
Manuel Neuer has a calf complaint and is unlikely to be fit in time for Bayern. The visitors are also set to miss out on Alphonso Davies and Cassiano Kiala.
Neuer’s absence could open the door for Jona Urbig to start in the Bavarian goal. Bayern will stick to their 4-2-3-1 formation with the irrepressible Harry Kane set to start as the leading striker. He has 28 goals in this league campaign and 12 strikes in his last nine club games in all competitions.
Most goals and assists
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern Munich
S. Guirassy
(17 Goals)
H. Kane
(36 Goals)
J. Ryerson
(15 Assists)
M. Olise
(20 Assists)
Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich Key Points
- Dortmund conceded just 22 goals and only Bayern (21) have a better defensive record in the Bundesliga this season.
- Seven of Dortmund’s last 12 league games have seen under 3.5 goals scored.
- Dortmund kept a clean sheet in four of their last six home league games.
- Five of Bayern’s last eight competitive matches have produced three or fewer goals.
- Three of the last four matches between Bayern and Dortmund produced under 3.5 goals.
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Our Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction
This is a title-defining game in more aspects than one. These are teams at the top of the points table, topping the scoring charts as well as topping the defensive charts. Dortmund know well that they have no option but to win this game and eat into the eight-point deficit. Bayern have an edge, but can’t take it lightly, especially as Dortmund have been doing well in the league lately.
This could be a tight game in the offing, as both teams could be cautious. That’s why our Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich prediction is less than 3.5 goals.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Alternative Predictions
Harry Kane to score two or more goals
Kane scored the opening goal in Bayern’s 2-1 win in the reverse fixture. He scored a brace in each of his last three Bundesliga matches and comes here with some great scoring form. Back the English striker to keep scoring.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Borussia Dortmund Bayern Munich
| Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 4.27 | 4.86 | +13.8% |
| Draw | 4.27 | 4.81 | +12.6% |
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.83 | 1.67 | -8.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 54.6% and is now 59.9% (5.2%)
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Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich - FAQs
The Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich German Bundesliga match will be telecast live on Sky Sports Football in the UK. The registered customers can tune in via their laptops and mobile devices.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our German Bundesliga Livescore page!
What can we say – this is ‘Der Klassiker', which is German for 'The Clasico'. This is the name given to any football match between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, which are two of the most successful teams in German football. These two have won 27 of the past 32 Bundesliga titles as of the 2024-25 Bundesliga campaign.
Mind you – this is not the traditional derby that you witness in German football, like Dortmund’s Revierderby with FC Schalke or the Bavarian derbies involving Bayern Munich and Nurnberg.
That aside, these sides are meeting for the 139th time in the Bundesliga. That makes it the most played fixture in German professional football history.
Bayern have lost 33 times to Dortmund, which is the most they have lost against any side in professional football.
The reverse fixture in October was won by Bayern 2-1, while the Bavarians are also unbeaten in their last seven away from home (W5, D2) against Dortmund.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
