Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Bayern Munich seem to be marching towards the 2025-26 Bundesliga title, and next up on matchday 26 is Bayer Leverkusen, who are looking to get into the top four. This match in Leverkusen between the sixth-placed ‘Factory XI’ and the first-placed ‘Bavarians’ comes with our prediction of more than 3.5 goals.
Ahead of this round, Bayern’s 66 points (W21, D3, L1) put them a stunning 11 points ahead of their nearest rivals, Borussia Dortmund. With nine rounds left to play, including this one, it’s just a matter of when they will win the title. Leverkusen have 44 points (W13, D5, L7) and are three points outside the top four places, which guarantee qualification for the UEFA Champions League next season.
Both teams have the second leg of the UCL last-16 tie up next, but Bayern have an advantage even there. They carry a 6-1 lead from the first leg over Atalanta, while Leverkusen are tied 1-1 against Arsenal. All the stars are aligned for another Bayern win, but can Leverkusen play spoilsport? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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5.2 | 4.8 | 1.57 |
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5.1 | 4.74 | 1.54 |
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|
5.1 | 4.74 | 1.54 |
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5.25 | 4.5 | 1.53 |
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5.2 | 4.6 | 1.53 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich?
Our prediction for the Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich match is: more than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/03/2026 between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 22.63% for a win of Bayer Leverkusen against Bayern Munich with odds of 5.32 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich is 28.01% with odds of 4.92 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.36% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen with odds of 1.6 at 888Starz.
Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bayer Leverkusen Bayern Munich Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 49.36% | 1.6 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.14 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Bayern Munich | 21.18% | 5 at Bet365 |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Form
Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
89 | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 |
|
6
|
59 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | +21 |
Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2024 - DFB Pokal
28 Sept 2024 - Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich: Form Analysis
Leverkusen conceded a controversial late penalty to draw 1-1 at home against Arsenal on Wednesday in their UCL last-16 first-leg fixture. That was their fourth draw in their last five matches in all competitions (W1).
The ‘Factory XI’ can’t afford to drop more points in the league after drawing 3-3 away at Freiburg last weekend. The hosts have won just two of their last six Bundesliga matches (D3, L1), keeping them out of the top four positions.
Leverkusen have six wins from their last nine home league matches.
Bayern thrashed Atalanta 6-1 away from home on Tuesday in their UCL last-16 first leg fixture. That made it seven wins on the bounce in all competitions for the Bavarians, who have scored 26 goals in the process.
The Bavarians won 4-1 at home against Gladbach in the league, which was their fifth victory in a row. Each of those games saw them score at least three goals, so the scoring pace is equally impressive from the visitors.
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Bayer Leverkusen against Bayern Munich Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Omlin
N. Lomb
DefenderT. Oermann
MidfielderE. Palacios
I. Maza
A. Tape
J. Hofmann
N. Tella
C. Kofane
L. Prescott
DefenderK. Min-jae
R. Guerreiro
D. Ofli
MidfielderT. Bischof
L. Goretzka
M. Cardozo
ForwardS. Gnabry
H. Kane
Missing players
M. Flekken
DefenderA. Grimaldo
L. Vazquez
L. Bade
ForwardE. Ben Seghir
M. Neuer
J. Urbig
DefenderA. Davies
H. Ito
MidfielderJ. Musiala
Bayer Leverkusen & Bayern Munich Squad Analysis
Alejandro Grimaldo misses out for Leverkusen through suspension. Nathan Tella and Mark Flekken are back in training, along with Patrik Schick. The trio will be assessed close to game time to decide their participation.
The hosts stick to their 3-4-3 formation usually, with the striker starting slightly ahead to make it a 3-4-2-1 system. Schick usually takes that role and has seven goals in the Bundesliga this season. The hosts, however, will miss Grimaldo’s service, as he had six goals and five assists in the league this season.
Harry Kane has 30 Bundesliga goals this season.
The prolific English striker missed Bayern’s last league game and sat on the bench in the UCL game but should be back to lead the line. He has scored four braces in his last four league games.
Kane will likely take his place as the striker in their 4-2-3-1 system, while the equally impressive Michael Olise and Luis Diaz are set to appear on the wings. Olise (ten goals, 16 assists) and Diaz (14 goals, 11 assists) have had their share of success in the league this season. On the injury front, Manuel Neuer, Jonas Urbig, and Alphonso Davies remain out of contention.
Most goals and assists
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern Munich
P. Schick
(16 Goals)
H. Kane
(36 Goals)
A. Garcia
(8 Assists)
M. Olise
(20 Assists)
Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich Key Points
- Bayern saw over 3.5 goals scored in 19 of their 25 Bundesliga matches this season.
- On the road, nine of Bayern’s 12 Bundesliga fixtures this season produced four or more goals.
- Leverkusen scored 3+ goals in three of their last six home matches in all competitions.
- Bayern have netted 3+ goals in nine of their last 11 Bundesliga matches.
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Our Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Bayern Munich seem to have reserved their best when facing top-six teams this season. They averaged 4.1 goals per game in their eight such matches, winning all those games with an aggregate score of 33-6. Their matches have been goal magnets this season, averaging 4.64 total goals per Bundesliga fixture. Leverkusen could do their bit to that tally, as they netted 12 goals in their last six home matches in all competitions.
Goals could feature prominently, and our Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich prediction is more than 3.5 goals.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Alternative Predictions
Bayern Munich wins
Bayern Munich are bossing their opponents, and it’s evident in their recent results. They have won seven games in a row in all competitions, while in the Bundesliga they have five victories on the bounce. Even on the road, the Bavarians have ten wins from their 12 away league games. They have also won all eight of their matches against the current top-six sides, with an aggregate score of 33-6. That record could continue here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bayer Leverkusen Bayern Munich
| Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen wins | 5.07 | 5.32 | +4.9% |
| Draw | 4.67 | 4.92 | +5.4% |
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.66 | 1.6 | -3.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 60.2% and is now 62.5% (2.3%)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich - FAQs
The Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich German Bundesliga match will be telecast live via streaming on Sky Sports in the UK. In Germany, it’s Sky Deutschland broadcasting this match.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our German Bundesliga Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
