Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Spanish Super Cup
Spain - Spanish Super Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi in Football Predictions
It's the second El Clasico of the season as Barcelona and Real Madrid meet in the final of the 2026 Supercopa de Espana in Jeddah on Sunday. This is the fourth successive final between the two arch rivals, with the sides combining for a total of 28 Super Cup titles between them – Barcelona 15 and Madrid 13. This match between the Blaugrana and Los Blancos comes with our prediction of more than 3.5 goals.
Barcelona arrived in Jeddah in top form and continued that with a 5-0 demolition of Athletic Bilbao in the semis. Real Madrid had an up-and-down season but picked up momentum at the right time to defeat Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the last four. With the first title of the year up for grabs, silverware here is likely to save Xabi Alonso his managerial role with Madrid.
We never get tired of saying that derbies are tough to predict, although Barcelona dominated Madrid recently. Los Blancos won against Barca earlier in the season, when they won 2-1 with goals from Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham trumping the strike from Fermin Lopez. Will Barcelona get their revenge here? Read more for our match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Barcelona v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.95 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.95 | 4 | 3.4 |
|
|
1.91 | 4 | 3.25 |
|
|
1.88 | 4.1 | 3.45 |
|
|
1.95 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Barcelona and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Barcelona vs Real Madrid match is: more than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/01/2026 between Barcelona and Real Madrid in Spanish Super Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.09% for a win of Barcelona against Real Madrid with odds of 1.98 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Barcelona vs Real Madrid is 9.94% with odds of 4.1 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.96% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Barcelona with odds of 3.55 at Roobet.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Form
Barcelona and Real Madrid Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
16 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
16 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
0 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
11 May 2025 - LaLiga
26 Apr 2025 - Copa del Rey
12 Jan 2025 - Spanish Super Cup
26 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Barcelona - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Barcelona cruised past Athletic in a 5-0 result at this venue in the semi-finals earlier in the week. Raphinha scored a brace, while there were goals for three more players, all coming before the hour mark.
It was an eighth win in a row for the Catalans in all competitions, scoring 24 goals in total during this sequence. More importantly, Barca have also kept five consecutive clean sheets, and considering their firepower in the final third, another defensive masterclass would be enough to land a 16th Super Cup.
Barcelona won four of the last five matches against Madrid, including 5-2 in the Supercopa final.
Madrid also settled their semi-finals game against Atletico within the hour mark, defeating them 2-1. It was a fourth win in a row for Los Blancos, who are trailing Barcelona by four points in La Liga after 19 matches.
There are unconfirmed reports about manager Xabi Alonso's future being linked to their title chances here. Los Blancos would be eager to continue their alternate win-loss record in the Super Cup, having lost two and won one of their last three finals of this competition.
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
R. Araujo
A. Christensen
MidfielderGavi
T. Alexander-Arnold
E. Militao
ForwardB. Diaz
Barcelona & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Barcelona have no new major injury concerns but will continue to miss Gavi, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, and Andreas Christensen due to injuries. Lamine Yamal started Athletic's match on the bench but is likely to start in the final.
The Catalans are set to continue in their favorite 4-2-3-1 formation with Torres likely to start as the lone striker. Yamal could slot back into the starting line-up to link with Raphinha and Fermin Lopez.
Fermin scored one and assisted four goals in his last two matches for Barcelona.
Real received a huge boost with Kylian Mbappe recovering from a knee injury. Brahim Diaz is still out on international duty, while the likes of Rodrygo and Trent Alexander-Arnold miss out due to knocks. Dean Huijsen was on the bench against Atletico and could be introduced from the start here.
Los Blancos could be tempted to line up in a 4-3-3 system to tackle the midfield mastery of the Catalans. The return of Mbappe is a massive boost, as the Frenchman has 29 goals and four assists to his name in all competitions this season.
Most goals and assists
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Raphinha
(2 Goals)
Rodrygo
(1 Goals)
, 
F. Valverde
(1 Goals)
F. Lopez
(2 Assists)
, 
R. Bardghji
(2 Assists)
F. Valverde
(1 Assists)
Barcelona - Real Madrid Key Points
- Barcelona scored 2+ goals in their last eight matches in all competitions.
- In eight of Barcelona’s last 13 matches in all competitions, there have been over 3.5 goals scored.
- Madrid scored 2+ goals in five of their last seven matches in all competitions.
- Six of the last seven matches between these sides ended with at least four goals.
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Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction
El Clasico is enough context for Barcelona and Real Madrid, but there's more to this game for both teams. The Catalans are looking to break the jinx of defending league champions not winning the Super Cup, while Madrid are looking at potentially saving their manager's fate. The Catalans were clinical in dismantling Athletic Bilbao in the semi-finals, while Madrid did just enough to edge their derby rivals Atletico.
Recent games between Barca and Madrid have been full of goals, and that could continue here. That's why our Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction is more than 3.5 goals.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Raphinha to score anytime
Raphinha dismantled Madrid in the Super Cup final last season, with his brace helping them to a 5-2 win. He missed the first El Clasico of the season earlier in the campaign but scored three goals in the two league games last season against Madrid, helping Barcelona to thumping wins. The Brazilian could be lining up for another scoring game.
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid - FAQs
The Barcelona vs Real Madrid Supercopa de Espana final match will be played at the neutral venue of King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Jeddah. This venue is known as Alinma Stadium due to sponsorship reasons, also nicknamed the Shining Jewel. It is main stadium of the sports city located 30 km north of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
It has a capacity of 62,345 and is set to be a venue for the 2034 FIFA World Cup, where it will host fixtures in the group stage, round of 32, round of 16, and quarterfinals.
The Barcelona vs Real Madrid Supercopa de Espana semi-finals match will be telecast live on TNT Sports 1 for viewers in the UK. The subscribers will be able to access the game on the Discovery+ app on their phone or tablet device.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Supercopa de Espana Livescore page!
Barcelona have won this title 15 times, the most by any club in history. They are also the defending champions. To go with that, the Catalans have also finished runners-up on 12 separate occasions.
Madrid are right behind them with 13 titles, the last of which came in 2024. They have finished runners-up seven times.
Absolutely. Looking at the recent results in the Super Cup, two things stand out. First, it has been eight years since the reigning La Liga champions ended up winning the Super Cup in the following year. That's not good news for Barcelona fans.
Second, no team has lifted the trophy in consecutive seasons for the past 15 years. That's also not good news for Barcelona fans.
The matches between Barcelona and Real Madrid are called El Clasico, which basically means 'The Classic'. Considered to be one of the fiercest rivalries in any sport, the Clasico generally boasts a global audience of hundreds of millions. The fixture also carries a large-scale political connotation due to the Catalan independence movement, which is opposite to the political position of Madrid, the capital and largest city of Spain.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
