Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa del Rey
Spain - Copa del Rey
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Football Predictions
Barcelona have an uphill task in seeking to overturn a heavy first-leg defeat in the Copa del Rey. They will be putting aside league action for now to play host to Atletico Madrid this Tuesday in the return fixture of their Copa semi-final. Read on to find our prediction of this match below.
A seemingly impossible quest, the Catalans are looking to reset after they fell into a 4-0 hole in the reverse game away from home. To progress, they now must win by five clear goals. The winner of the tie will play the winner of the other semi between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad in the final.
This is the third meeting of the season between Atleti and Barca. The Blaugrana, who come into this match as the stronger of the two, are favored by bookmakers to win this match but not to qualify. They won 3-1 in the league when Atletico Madrid last visited.
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Barcelona v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.43 | 5.8 | 6 |
|
|
1.43 | 5.75 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
|
|
1.39 | 5.75 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.43 | 5.8 | 6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid match is: more than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/03/2026 between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in Copa del Rey :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.61% for a win of Barcelona against Atletico Madrid with odds of 1.45 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid is 20.53% with odds of 6 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.86% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona with odds of 6.2 at Tonybet.
Barcelona - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Barcelona Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona wins | 55.61% | 1.45 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.98% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.92% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Barcelona | 21.26% | 5.25 at LSbet |
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Form
Barcelona and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
22 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
16 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
7 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
3 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
22 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
7 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
3 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
31 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
15 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
5 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
31 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Apr 2025 - Copa del Rey
16 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
21 Dec 2024 - LaLiga
Barcelona - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
Barcelona are coming off an emphatic 4-1 thumping of Villarreal. The win saw them stretch their lead atop the La Liga standings to four points. Hansi Flick’s men have now won their last two matches, both at home, scoring seven goals and conceding once. The Catalans were on a six-match winning streak and had lost just once in 18 games when they headed to the capital for the first leg. That shock loss two weeks ago was followed up by another demoralizing result in the league as the Blaugrana lost 2-1 away to Girona. Barca, who are chasing the treble, are the Copa defending champions. On their way to a record-extending 32nd Copa title, Barcelona ousted Atletico in the semis over two legs.
Barcelona are seeking a 33rd Copa del Rey title.
Atletico Madrid will feel this is their chance to exact revenge for last season’s semi-final loss to Barcelona. Los Rojiblancos drew the first leg 4-4 but were unable to score in the return fixture at home as they lost 1-0. Diego Simeone’s men travel south for this return fixture with a healthy lead and in strong form. Atleti haven’t lost any of their last four matches and are on a three-match winning streak. After confirming their place in the UCL round of 16 last week, they maintained their top-three place in La Liga with a hard-fought 1-0 win at Oviedo. Atleti last won the Copa in the 2012/13 season, which also remains their last appearance in the final.
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Barcelona against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
W. Szczesny
D. Kochen
DefenderA. Balde
R. Araujo
D. Olmo
T. Marques
M. Casado
R. Bardghji
ForwardM. Rashford
J. Oblak
DefenderN. Molina
R. Le Normand
C. Lenglet
J. Gimenez
O. Vargas
N. Gonzalez
A. Baena
R. Martinez Moya
ForwardT. Almada
A. Sorloth
Missing players
A. Christensen
E. Garcia
MidfielderF. De Jong
Gavi
ForwardR. Lewandowski
P. Barrios
Barcelona & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
Barcelona are dealing with a host of injuries ahead of this fixture. Andreas Christensen, Frenkie de Jong, and Gavi are all out injured. Eric Garcia will also miss this match, but due to suspension after his red card in the first leg. However, Lamine Yamal bears good hope, having scored a hat-trick over the weekend to stretch his goal tally to 18. Ferran Torres and Robert Lewandowski follow him closely with 16 and 14 goals, respectively. Fermin Lopez, Raphinha, and Marcus Rashford are the other options in a rich pool of attackers for Barcelona.
Atletico’s Alexander Sorloth is yet to score in the Copa del Rey this season.
Julian Alvarez scored and assisted in the first-leg thumping. He has been one of Atleti’s main focal points for goals with 13. Fellow strike partner Alexander Sorloth leads the scoring charts at Atleti with 15 goals. Antoine Griezmann was also on target in the first leg, and with 12 goals, the veteran forward is someone Atleti can rely on. A fresh breath is offered by Ademola Lookman, who is having a strong start to life at Atletico after his January move. In seven appearances, he has found the net four times, including in the first leg.
Barcelona - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Four of the last five meetings between Atletico and Barcelona had over 3.5 goals.
- Atletico scored four goals in the first-leg meeting between these two.
- Four times in their last six outings, Atletico scored three or more goals.
- In the last 10 matches at home, Barcelona scored three or more goals eight times.
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Our Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
This is a do-or-die fixture for Barcelona if they are to maintain their hopes of retaining the Copa del Rey title. They lost the first leg 4-0 and need to win by five clear goals. It seems an impossible task, but not for the hosts, who have, on countless occasions, done the unthinkable.
Both these sides are free-scoring and, on any given occasion, can score three or more with ease. This fixture has also, in recent meetings, turned out to be a high-scoring affair, and with the dynamics of the latest showdown, that should continue. Our prediction for Barcelona v Atletico Madrid is for more than 3.5 goals.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Alternative Predictions
Barcelona wins
In our second prediction, we are backing Barcelona to win. Barca have won an incredible 15 consecutive matches at home. They’ve also won four of the last six times Atletico have been in town. Atleti, though, could be the ones to progress, motivated to seek a title in Simeone’s final season at the club.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Barcelona Atletico Madrid
| Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona wins | 1.85 | 1.45 | -21.6% |
| Draw | 4.2 | 6 | +42.9% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 3.7 | 6.2 | +67.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Barcelona is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 21.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 54.1% and is now 69.0% (14.9%)
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid - FAQs
The Barcelona v Atletico Madrid match will be played on Tuesday, 3 March.
The Barcelona v Atletico Madrid match will be played at Barcelona’s Camp Nou Stadium in Barcelona, Spain.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
