AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction & Betting Tips - Eredivisie
Netherlands - Eredivisie
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Eredivisie Predictions
Round six in the 2026-27 Eredivisie starts with the struggling promoted side Willem II visiting runaway leaders Alkmaar on Friday. This match at AFAS Stadion between the 1st-placed ‘Cheese Farmers’ and the 16th-placed ‘Super Pitchers’ is likely to produce goals, and our match prediction is over 3.5 goals.
Ahead of this round, Alkmaar have a 100% winning record with 15 points (W5) and are two points above PSV Eindhoven. Willem have just one point from their four games (D1, L3) and are stuck in the relegation zone, although they have a match in hand over teams around them.
Alkmaar had to come from 2-1 behind to defeat Heerenveen 3-2 last Sunday to make it five wins out of five to start the league campaign. This is one of their best starts to an Eredivisie campaign in the club’s history, and the hosts will look to extend that sequence. Crucially, they have won both league games at this venue this season and haven’t lost here in any competition since January.
Willem lost 3-0 at home against Excelsior last weekend to make it three defeats out of four to start the season. Their only point of this campaign came at home, which is a concern for the newly-promoted side, although they have won 2-1 in their last visit to this venue in November 2024.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
AZ Alkmaar v Willem II Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.13 | 8.4 | 14 |
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1.13 | 9.85 | 17 |
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1.13 | 9.7 | 16 |
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1.13 | 9.5 | 16 |
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1.13 | 9.7 | 16 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
Our prediction for the AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II match is: over 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/09/2026 between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in Eredivisie :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.03% for a win of AZ Alkmaar against Willem II with odds of 1.16 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is 15.8% with odds of 10 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.17% chance ⭐ for a win of Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar with odds of 18 at Betsson.
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Form
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II's standings in the Eredivisie
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +11 |
|
16
|
1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 |
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
29 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
8 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
2 Aug 2026 - Johan Cruijff Schaal
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
8 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
22 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
2 Aug 2026 - Johan Cruijff Schaal
10 May 2026 - Eredivisie
23 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
30 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
8 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Sept 2026 - Eredivisie
30 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
20 May 2026 - Eredivisie
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Aug 2026 - Eredivisie
23 May 2026 - Eredivisie
13 May 2026 - Eredivisie
5 May 2026 - Eredivisie
24 Apr 2026 - Eerste Divisie
6 Apr 2026 - Eerste Divisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
40 %
20 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
2 Feb 2025 - Eredivisie
10 Nov 2024 - Eredivisie
20 Mar 2022 - Eredivisie
18 Dec 2021 - Eredivisie
18 Jan 2020 - Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
R. Owusu Oduro
I. Ka
DefenderM. De Wit
S. Maikuma
R. Ichihara
A. Natali
MidfielderH. de Wit
V. Andreasen
ForwardC. Stengs
J. Hornkamp
B. Kovacs
A. Oufkir
K. De Leeuw
W. Van der Steen
DefenderJ. Mathijsen
A. Ciranni
M. Dekker
A. Et-Taibi
MidfielderT. Vilhena
ForwardP. Van Loon
T. Verheydt
C. Obi-Martin
Missing players
H. Verhulst
DefenderD. Kasius
S. Resink
MidfielderK. Smit
T. Didillon
DefenderJ. Hoogma
A. Lachkar
MidfielderJ. Schuurman
V. Van Crooij
T. Muller
A. Zarrouk
ForwardA. Culum
Most goals and assists
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II
R. Daal
(4 Goals)
D. Haen
(2 Goals)
M. Chavez
(3 Assists)
N. Tjoe-a-On
(2 Assists)
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II Stats in Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar - Willem II Key Points
- Alkmaar average 3.2 goals per game this season and only PSV have scored more.
- Willem conceded 3.3 goals per game and only two clubs have averaged more after Tuesday’s games.
- Five of Alkmaar’s last seven competitive matches have produced over 3.5 goals.
- Five of Alkmaar’s last six home competitive games have seen at least four goals scored.
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Our AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction
It’s the biggest mismatch between teams, as Alkmaar start the round with a 100% winning record, while Willem have just one point to their name. The stark contrast in their forms is underlined by their records – Alkmaar scoring 3.2 goals per game while Willem are conceding 3.3 per game. That explains the low returns on backing an Alkmaar win, so we are dipping into the goals market.
Three of the last four Eredivisie matches between these sides at this venue saw four or more goals, so our AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II prediction is over 3.5 goals.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
