AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
Europe - Conference League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Conference League Predictions
AZ Alkmaar host Sparta Prague in the first leg of this Conference League last 16 tie. The Dutch side will be going all out to continue their impressive home form in European competitions. Can the Cheese Farmers get another home victory? Read our match prediction below.
Not since the 2022-23 season have AZ made it to the last eight of a European competition. The winners of this tie will face either Lech Poznan or Shakhtar Donetsk in the quarter-finals. As you will read in the form section of this preview, AZ have been relying on their home results to progress in the Conference League (UECL). They finished 14th in the league phase, three points and ten places below their opponents.
Sparta Prague haven't made it to the quarter-finals of a European competition since the 2015/16 season. The Reds aren't in the best of form in the Czech First League but do tend to keep it tight on the road. Even a narrow loss here would see them in with a good chance of progressing.
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AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Prague Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.94 | 3.65 | 4 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.58 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.58 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.75 | 4 |
|
|
1.87 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Prague?
Our prediction for the AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague match is: AZ Alkmaar wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Prague in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.02% for a win of AZ Alkmaar against Sparta Prague with odds of 1.94 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague is 23.14% with odds of 3.75 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.85% chance ⭐ for a win of Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar with odds of 4.16 at Melbet.
AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Prague Prediction and Best Odds:
| AZ Alkmaar Sparta Prague Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague wins | 38.85% | 4.16 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.89% | 1.85 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.38% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Sparta Prague | 20.17% | 9 at Bet365 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague Form
AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Prague Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
4 Mar 2026 - KNVB beker
1 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
22 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - KNVB beker
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
22 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
8 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
3 Feb 2026 - KNVB beker
31 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
14 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
25 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Chance Liga
3 Mar 2026 - Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
22 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
15 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
8 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
15 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
14 Dec 2025 - Chance Liga
30 Nov 2025 - Chance Liga
9 Nov 2025 - Chance Liga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Chance Liga
3 Mar 2026 - Cup
22 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
8 Feb 2026 - Chance Liga
31 Jan 2026 - Chance Liga
22 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Prague: Form Analysis
It's been a long route to the last 16 for AZ. The Cheese Farmers had to play three rounds just to qualify for the league phase. After finishing 14th, they went into the Knockout Play-off Round, where they beat Noah 4-1 on aggregate.
AZ are sixth in the Dutch Eredivisie but have lost their last two games, both on the road.
AZ are so impressive on home soil.
They lost the away leg in that play-off but again relied on their excellent European home form to qualify for the last 16. AZ have played seven home games this season with six wins, 19 goals and only one goal conceded against Levski Sofia.
The Dutch side are unbeaten in their last 13 home European fixtures with 11 wins and two draws. They will want to get a lead though because three of their last Conference League games have been lost.
Sparta Prague are second in their domestic league but ten points off the leaders. The table-toppers are Slavia Prague and Sparta lost to them at the weekend. Only one of their last three games has been won.
The Iron Sparta finished fourth in the league phase with four wins, a draw and one loss. That sole defeat came at Rijeka but they did win their other two away fixtures. All three away games saw just a one-goal margin for the winners.
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AZ Alkmaar against Sparta Prague Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
D. Deen
H. Verhulst
DefenderE. Dijkstra
B. van Duijl
R. Ichihara
MidfielderM. Sin
K. Boogaard
ForwardA. Oufkir
W. Patati
M. Meerdink
J. Hornkamp
I. Sadiq
D. Kerl
DefenderE. Uchenna
P. Kaderabek
H. Sochurek
S. Mannsverk
J. Mercado
J. Kuchta
Missing players
J. Clasie
ForwardL. Zeefuik
AZ Alkmaar & Sparta Prague Squad Analysis
AZ must wish they were as effective on their travels as they are on home soil. In the Play-off Round they lost the away first leg 1-0 but at least had the chance to fight back at home and beat their opponents 4-0. It's the reverse situation this time so the pressure is on them to get a good result.
Mijnans is in good goalscoring form.
They keep on managing to do that though with all bar one of their home Conference League games being won. AZ will be hoping for more goals from Sven Mijnans who scored twice in their 4-0 home win over Noah. Three of the last matches in which he's scored, he's been the first goalscorer.
The home side have doubts over Seiya Maikuma, Jordy Clasie and Mateo Chavez, all who were absent at the weekend. A bet on an early goal could be successful. There's been one before the 15th minute in three of their last four games.
Sparta Prague have a doubt over the fitness of Patrik Vydra. He was injured during their loss at league leaders Slavia Prague on Sunday and may miss this trip to AZ. Their discipline is strong with an average of only a couple of yellow cards per UECL game in this campaign.
Most goals and assists
AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Prague
S. Mijnans
(6 Goals)
L. Haraslin
(2 Goals)
K. Smit
(4 Assists)
J. Kuchta
(2 Assists)
AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Prague Key Points
- AZ are unbeaten in their last 13 home games in European competitions.
- AZ have scored 19 goals at home in this season's Conference League.
- In seven home Conference League games this season, AZ have only conceded one goal.
- Sparta Prague have gone three away games without a win.
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Our AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague Prediction
The first leg of this Conference League last 16 tie is perhaps even more crucial than ever. AZ have excellent home form but struggle on the road. They will be trying as hard as they possibly can to get a good lead to take to the Czech Republic for the second leg.
Sparta Prague had a good league phase and will not be easy opponents for the home side. They aren't always at their best when playing away from home and that explains why our main AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Prague prediction is AZ Alkmaar wins.
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague Alternative Predictions
AZ to score over 1.5 goals
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AZ Alkmaar Sparta Prague
| AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar wins | 1.96 | 1.94 | -1.0% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.75 | +2.7% |
| Sparta Prague wins | 3.9 | 4.16 | +6.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sparta Prague is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 25.6% and is now 24.0% (-1.6%)
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AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague - FAQs
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
