Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
The first installment of the Madrid derby comes along this weekend as Atletico Madrid are lined up to host Real Madrid. The two giants face off this Sunday at the Metropolitano Stadium with only two points separating them in the league standings.
Though the two are playing shadow to the high-flying Barcelona, this too remains an important game in the context of the La Liga title race. Jose Mourinho is back to spice up this encounter, and he will be looking to inspire his team to a third straight Madrid derby win.
It is hard to brush aside his influence, as the Portuguese has only lost once to Atletico in nine matches as Real Madrid boss. However, there is another angle that the manager may want to reflect on; his team hasn’t won at Atletico’s base in the last five visits. Los Blancos actually suffered four defeats in those five games, which persuades us to back such a prediction.
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Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.4 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
|
|
3.72 | 3.93 | 2.03 |
|
|
3.58 | 3.78 | 1.96 |
|
|
3.58 | 3.78 | 1.96 |
|
|
3.58 | 3.78 | 1.96 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match is: Atlético Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/09/2026 between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.89% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid with odds of 3.72 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid is 9.96% with odds of 3.93 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 54.15% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.05 at 888Starz.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Form
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
15 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +11 |
|
4
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +8 |
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
9 Sept 2026 - Champions League
5 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
29 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
29 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
9 May 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
9 Sept 2026 - Champions League
5 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
29 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
12 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
4 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
26 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
26 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
23 May 2026 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
4 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
22 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Atletico Madrid have had a few shaky moments this season, but they’ve had time to restore a bit of confidence before this encounter. They bounced back from back-to-back losses at Athletic Bilbao and Liverpool with two straight La Liga wins.
Ahead of this match, Diego Simeone’s side thrashed Osasuna 4-0, following up on their 3-0 success against Real Sociedad earlier. The hosts wouldn’t have wished for such a game to find them in better form. They’ve won three of their last four home matches without conceding. Also, in their last five matches at the Metropolitano against Real Madrid, Atleti are unbeaten, winning four.
Atletico Madrid have won seven of their last 10 home league matches.
Real Madrid have just about managed to cling on in their recent matches to stay two points behind Barcelona in second. The visitors have posted five wins in their six league matches, at times needing late winners.
A case in point was in their last outing, against Elche. The 3-2 victory was hard-fought, but notably, after Los Blancos squandered a two-goal lead. It was a case of another poor outing defensively; as for the fourth straight game, they failed to keep a clean sheet. Across their last 10 away matches, Real Madrid failed to win five times.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
S. Esquivel Gamez
J. Musso
DefenderM. Pubill
D. Martinez Moreno
J. Dominguez
D. Hancko
MidfielderR. Martinez Moya
J. Castillo
O. Vargas
M. Hjulmand
ForwardA. Ortiz
G. Simeone
A. Lunin
DefenderR. Asencio
A. Rudiger
D. Dumfries
A. Carreras
MidfielderB. Silva
E. Camavinga
J. Bellingham
T. Pitarch Pinar
ForwardB. Diaz
C. Espi
Endrick
Missing players
P. Barrios
ForwardA. Sorloth
F. Mendy
E. Militao
ForwardRodrygo
Atletico Madrid & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
The most dangerous aspect about this Atletico Madrid side is their teamwork. Their goals are well distributed across the team, and they don’t rely on one particular player to deliver in attack. They also defend as a unit, and this could give Real Madrid problems.
So far, their most potent player is a midfielder, Alex Baena, who comes into the game having scored four goals in La Liga and assisted once. In the past few games Jonathan David has been an outstanding performer, contributing directly to three goals. After netting in his first two La Liga games for Atletico, the Canadian has earned a starting berth, especially with Julian Alvarez likely to miss this game too.
Jonathan David has won in each of his last 11 scoring outings in club football.
Kylian Mbappe is once again set to be the key player for Real Madrid in this derby. After a record-breaking World Cup performance, he’s returned to score eight times in seven matches for Real Madrid. History, however, suggests Real Madrid fans may wish the Frenchman fails to score here.
In Mbappe’s two scoring outings against Atletico, Real Madrid failed to win, drawing once and losing the other. That wish may not come to fruition as Mbappe has had five goal contributions in the last two league matches. Apart from Mbappe, Arda Guler has come up as a key man for the team, with the youngster credited with creating the most chances (27). He has two assists, one behind Vinicius Junior in that respect.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
A. Baena
(4 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(7 Goals)
D. Hancko
(2 Assists)
Vinicius Junior
(3 Assists)
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Stats in LaLiga
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid Key Points
- Real Madrid are winless in half of their last 10 away league games, losing four times.
- In La Liga action at home, Atlético have posted seven wins across their last 10 games.
- At the Metropolitano, Atlético are unbeaten in five against Real Madrid, winning four.
- In the last seven La Liga meetings hosted by Atlético, Real Madrid only won once.
- Atlético have posted a 14-6 aggregate in the last five home games against Real Madrid.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid will be pushing for a third straight win in this derby, and they have lost just twice in the last eight. They will also be crossing fingers for the Mourinho factor to play out. However, this is going to be one of the Portuguese manager’s toughest matches.
Real Madrid have been shaky away from home, failing to win in half of their last 10 away league games. Atletico will be happy for that particular statistic, as they are unbeaten at the Metropolitano the last five times they hosted Real Madrid. They won four of those, and our prediction for Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid is that Atletico Madrid wins.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Alternative Predictions
Mbappe to score or assist
Kylian Mbappé has been massive for Real Madrid this season. The Frenchman has featured in all seven of Real Madrid’s matches, playing the full 90 minutes in each, and he only failed to score in two games. Only one of those games he failed to score in ended in defeat. He has five goal involvements in his last two La Liga outings, which leads us to back him to score or assist here.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - FAQs
The Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid match will be staged at the Metropolitano Stadium on Sunday 20th September.
Julián Álvarez is still listed as doubtful for this match as he nurses a muscle injury.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
