Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
After posting their first win last time out, Athletic Bilbao will be confident heading into this fixture against Atletico Madrid. The visitors come here placed third, trailing leaders Barcelona by two points, while Athletic are further below, in 13th. The last 12 meetings between these sides produced zero draws, and in our prediction we will go for the same.
Athletic Bilbao are coming from a 2-0 win against Celta Vigo, a first win for them since early in May this year.
Returning home may not offer much excitement, as a number of their disappointing results came on home turf. Athletic have won once in their last five matches at the San Mames.
Atletico have had a pretty straightforward start to the season. Their only negatives were the draw with Villarreal after dominating the match and the Julian Alvarez transfer saga.
With the Champions League fast approaching, Atletico will want to get over this hurdle with relative ease. They are coming from a 3-1 win against Sevilla, recovering from the Villarreal draw.
At the height of the Alvarez saga, Diego Simeone made a late move for Canadian international Jonathan David. It is safe to say Atletico are well set to go for the kill at a venue they have struggled to win games.
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Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.90 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
|
|
2.98 | 3.43 | 2.58 |
|
|
2.89 | 3.30 | 2.47 |
|
|
2.89 | 3.30 | 2.47 |
|
|
2.89 | 3.30 | 2.47 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid match is: Atletico Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/09/2026 between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.59% for a win of Athletic Bilbao against Atletico Madrid with odds of 3.03 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid is 17.42% with odds of 3.45 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 52.99% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao with odds of 2.65 at Shangrila.
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Athletic Bilbao Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 52.99% | 2.65 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.41% | 1.97 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 71.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Atletico Madrid/Atletico Madrid | 26.24% | 4.40 at Shangrila |
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Form
Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
22 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +11 |
|
13
|
9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
27 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
22 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
10 May 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
12 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
27 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
29 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
9 May 2026 - LaLiga
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2026 - LaLiga
12 May 2026 - LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
27 Apr 2024 - LaLiga
29 Feb 2024 - Copa del Rey
Athletic Bilbao against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
A. Padilla
DefenderI. Monreal
A. Paredes
H. Rincon
J. Louis-Jean
A. Rego Mora
S. Sanchez Camilo
B. Prados
M. Jauregizar
M. Sannadi
G. Guruzeta
A. Berenguer
J. Musso
DefenderJ. Dominguez
D. Martinez Moreno
R. Le Normand
C. Romero
J. Cardoso
R. Martinez Moya
J. Castillo
Koke
J. David
J. Alvarez
A. Ortiz
Missing players
U. Egiluz
MidfielderP. Urtasan
Most goals and assists
Athletic Bilbao
Atletico Madrid
A. Berenguer
(2 Goals)
,
R. Navarro
(2 Goals)
A. Baena
(5 Goals)
I. Williams
(3 Assists)
D. Hancko
(2 Assists)
,
A. Baena
(2 Assists)
, 
G. Simeone
(2 Assists)
, 
J. David
(2 Assists)
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Atletico are unbeaten this season, winning two of three matches.
- Athletic Bilbao are winless in their last three home matches.
- Atletico have beaten Athletic four times in the last five meetings.
- Athletic Bilbao have lost five of their last seven La Liga matches.
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Our Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
The last time Athletic Bilbao hosted this fixture, they won, making it three wins in four home matches against Atletico. However, going by their form so far this season, we could see Atletico Madrid seizing back the control in this fixture. Atletico have only dropped points once in the league this season, in a 2-2 draw with Villarreal.
Athletic were tipped to make a better run this season, following their struggles domestically and in Europe last season. Even though they have a full focus on domestic action this year. In this match they’ll struggle. Our prediction for Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid is that Atletico Madrid wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Athletic Bilbao Atletico Madrid
| Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 2.79 | 3.03 | +8.6% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.45 | 0% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 2.65 | 2.65 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 37.7% and is now 37.7% (0.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
