Tip Aston Villa - West Ham
2018/19 Championship play-off winners Aston Villa have found it tough going in the Premier League since their promotion in the summer. The Villains sit 3rd from bottom after four rounds of fixtures, having lost three times and picked up maximum points just once so far. Villa’s solitary league victory of the campaign so far came at Everton’s expense at the end of August, though in truth the Toffees were a little unlucky to not have taken something having had the home side under the cosh for the entire second half. With so many new faces in Dean Smith’s squad, Villa remain something of an enigmatic, unknown quantity, and we expect them to have a difficult evening at home to a much more settled West Ham side on Monday night. The Irons were on the wrong end of a confidence-sapping 0-5 battering by Man City on the opening day of the season, but to their credit, West Ham recovered quickly and are unbeaten since. The Hammers are currently on a three-match winning streak following impressive victories over Watford and Norwich in the league and Newport in the cup, and having beaten two of the Premier League’s bottom three clubs in relatively recent weeks, we think there is value in backing them to take the scalp of the third on Monday. Aston Villa are still searching for cohesion at the back with two new defenders and a new goalkeeper in their team, and as a result, they have kept only one clean sheet in five competitive matches in 2019/20. Interestingly, Villa have conceded more attempts on goal per league game (19.3) than any other team in the division so far this term, which suggests that they are always likely to concede. West Ham’s front-line is littered with attacking talent – the Irons failed to score in only one of their last nine Premier League fixtures since early April, and we think Villa’s porous defence will struggle to contain them.
Key points Aston Villa - West Ham
Don’t expect West Ham to keep a clean sheet.
Villa have conceded more attempts on goal per league game (19.3) than any other team.
Expect a close game but West Ham to win.
Conclusion Aston Villa - West Ham
Keeping clean sheets on the road is proving close to impossible for the Hammers however, and West Ham have kept their Premier League hosts off the scoresheet just once in their last 13 attempts. With those factors considered, we think the value lies in backing the West Ham win and both teams to score combination for Monday’s game. Our correct score prediction also leans on the aforementioned factors, and we’re tipping West Ham to win 2-1.
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Aston Villa West Ham Prediction published on September 15, 2019