Tip Arsenal - Brighton
9th place Arsenal take on 16th place Brighton on Wednesday night. Arsenal’s underwhelming season continued at the weekend, as they drew against strugglers Norwich. It’s now eight games (in all competitions) since the Gunners last tasted victory. It remains to be seen whether things will improve now that Unai Emery is no longer in charge, though if the performance at Carrow Road is anything to go by, it’s going to be a while before major improvements occur. Somewhat surprisingly, Arsenal are yet to lose at home in the Premier League this term, though that hasn’t been for the want of trying. Poor defending has led to the side that currently sits in 9th place drawing more games than they’ve won. They’ve scored a respectable 13 goals in front of a home crowd but have shipped a rather concerning ten and have kept just one clean sheet. The fact that only four teams in the league have shipped more home goals is worrying. Fortunately for Thursday's hosts, Brighton rank as the joint-worst travelling team in the division.
The Seagulls started the campaign by winning away at Watford, scoring three and conceding none in the process, though they’ve since gone nearly four months without securing a second travelling win. Like Arsenal at home, Brighton have conceded too many goals on their travels, conceding 13 in seven matches, keeping two clean sheets and conceding two or more in five out of seven, as well as in each of their last four. On a slightly more positive note, Graham Potter’s men have scored in each of their last three away, notching against both Man United and Liverpool, which bodes well ahead of a match against an Arsenal rear-guard that is without a clean sheet since the first week of October. The performances of both point towards goals, there can be no getting away from that fact. ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ appears to be a reasonable option for those looking to get involved. Arsenal, who have both scored and conceded in six out of seven at home, have scored plenty on their own patch, but have struggled massively to keep clean sheets, which is why there’s been an average of 3.29 goals at the Emirates this season. If we combine the goals conceded by Arsenal at home and Brighton on the road, then we also arrive at an average of 3.29. Moreover, Brighton are the second-worst team in the division when it comes to shots on target conceded on the road, while Arsenal are the third-worst Premier League outfit in terms of shots on target conceded at home.
Key points Arsenal - Brighton
Arsenal are unbeaten at home this season in the Premier League.
Arsenal have scored at least twice in five home league games this season.
Brighton are without an away win since beating Watford on the opening weekend of the season.
Conclusion Arsenal - Brighton
‘Correct Score’ punters are pointed towards a 3-1 win for the hosts. Both teams are defensively weak, but Arsenal’s attacking efforts at home have been superior to Brighton’s on the road. As well as being one of the worst in terms of shots on target conceded at home, they’re also one of the best when it comes to shots on target for. Against a Brighton side that has shipped seven in three on the road, the Gunners, who certainly don’t lack firepower, are backed to outscore their opponents at home for the first time in almost two months.
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Arsenal Brighton Prediction published on December 5, 2019