Angers vs Lille Osc Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1

Prediction published on 04/02/2020, 07:36  by James | Modified on 04/02/2020 at 08:36 in Ligue 1 Prediction

The Ligue 1 weekend opens with an intriguing fixture that pits Angers against Lille. The home side are going through an erratic period, scoring bucketloads one week, conceding the same amount the next. Dwindling in 12th place in the French top flight, they have scored five goals across their last two matches in all competitions; this is a goals-per-game average to rival the best. The problem, the reason that Angers is a midtable club, is that they have let in nine goals across those two games. Now they take on Lille, the fourth-best team in the division, at least based on the table. While Lille don't score many goals (26 in 22 Ligue 1 games), previous goalscoring form is shaky ground to base a prediction on when Angers are playing like this. A case in point would be Reims. Prior to last week's meeting, 90% of Reims matches featured less than 2.5 goals. Yet, they left Angers with a 4-1 win.

So why are Angers conceding so many goals? Three of Reims' goals came from set-pieces (one penalty, two headers from free-kicks) and the other came from a breakaway counter-attack. Angers are conceding at a higher rate than their expected goals metric suggests they should (29 conceded; expected goals 22.74). This could be an indication of poor goalkeeping, poor defending, or exquisite finishing on the part of their opponents. Thus far, Lille have not been deadly in front of goal, their XG being higher than the actual number of chances they have put away. That may change against opponents who have the third-worst XG rate for goals conceded. Given that Lille have won their last two fixtures against Angers and ended a losing streak at the weekend with their win over Strasbourg, we think they could come away with a win here. Back the visitors to win the match.