Alavés vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa del Rey
Spain - Copa del Rey
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Football Predictions
It will be a battle for a semi-final slot at the Mendizorrotza Stadium this Wednesday when Alaves hosts Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey. Going into this quarter-final match, Alaves have only ever reached the final, while Sociedad are two-time winners. Read on for our prediction.
Alaves are looking to at least replicate their 2017 performance in this competition, when they finished as runners up. Back then they lost to current holders Barcelona but will be eyeing a better run here.
Alaves have already eliminated Getxo, Portugalete, Sevilla, and Rayo to reach this round. That, and their current La Liga run will give the hosts the confidence.
Over the weekend, they beat Espanyol 2-1 for their second straight win against a top six side.
In Real Sociedad, Alaves meets another solid side. Txuri-Urdin are coming off a late heartbreak in a 1-1 draw with Athletic Bilbao in La Liga.
Goncalo Guedes’ first-half goal was canceled out in the 88th minute by Athletic. That leveler came minutes after Brais Mendez had been sent off.
Sociedad, however, stretched their unbeaten run to eight games. They have four wins and as many draws in that run.
Along the way, Sociedad have eliminated Osasuna, Eldense, Reus FCR, and SD Negreira.
Pellegrino Matarazzo’s men have suffered three straight defeats against Alaves. In their last meeting with Alaves in December, the two-time Copa winners lost 1-0.
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Alavés v Real Sociedad Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.15 | 3.05 | 2.31 |
|
|
3.06 | 3.16 | 2.45 |
|
|
2.95 | 3.09 | 2.57 |
|
|
3 | 3.1 | 2.35 |
|
|
2.92 | 3.1 | 2.52 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Alavés and Real Sociedad?
Our prediction for the Alavés vs Real Sociedad match is: Alaves wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/02/2026 between Alavés and Real Sociedad in Copa del Rey :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.03% for a win of Alavés against Real Sociedad with odds of 3.24 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Alavés vs Real Sociedad is 24.79% with odds of 3.25 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.18% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Sociedad vs Alavés with odds of 2.65 at Tonybet.
Alavés - Real Sociedad Prediction and Best Odds:
| Alavés Real Sociedad Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alavés wins | 39.03% | 3.24 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 59.91% | 2.26 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 59.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Alavés | 18.41% | 7.25 at LSbet |
Alavés vs Real Sociedad Form
Alavés and Real Sociedad Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
13 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
9 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
13 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
12 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
9 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
16 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
Alavés vs Real Sociedad Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
33 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
23 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
20 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Mar 2024 - LaLiga
2 Jan 2024 - LaLiga
Alavés against Real Sociedad Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
G. Swiderski
A. Sivera
DefenderY. Enriquez
A. Perez
F. Garces
MidfielderP. Ibanez
A. Blanco
J. Guridi
C. Alena
L. Boye
A. Fraga
DefenderA. Odriozola
A. Elustondo
MidfielderP. Marin
I. Zubeldia
Y. Herrera
L. Sucic
Wesley
J. Gorrotxategi
ForwardO. Oskarsson
D. Diaz Gandara
Missing players
V. Koski
ForwardM. Diaz
U. Marrero
DefenderI. Ruperez Urtasun
MidfielderT. Kubo
A. Zakharyan
ForwardA. Barrenetxea
Alavés - Real Sociedad Key Points
- Alaves are coming off two straight wins.
- Alaves have three straight wins against Real Sociedad.
- Alaves posted three wins in their last four home games.
- Real Sociedad lost in three of their last six visits to Alaves.
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Our Alavés vs Real Sociedad Prediction
Both Real Sociedad and Deportivo Alaves have had interesting runs in recent weeks and claimed key wins. That should pump up the confidence levels coming into this game. However, Alaves might have the edge here going by their head-to-head record against Real Sociedad.
In their last three meetings with Real Sociedad, the hosts posted straight wins. They have only lost once in six home matches against Sociedad and won three in the process. With such stats in mind, our prediction for Deportivo Alaves v Real Sociedad is that Alaves wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Alavés Real Sociedad
| Alavés vs Real Sociedad | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés wins | 3.14 | 3.24 | +3.2% |
| Draw | 2.99 | 3.25 | +8.7% |
| Real Sociedad wins | 2.5 | 2.65 | +6.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Alavés is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 31.8% and is now 30.9% (-1.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
