Alavés vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
Real Madrid have been in turmoil lately, and they’ll hope some of it eases when they head out to Alaves. The two face off in the 16th round of matches in La Liga, with Real Madrid second and Alaves 11th. Read on for our prediction of this match.
Alaves snapped their three-match losing run in La Liga last time out with a 1-0 win against Real Sociedad. Following that, on their Copa Del Rey win over Portugalete, Alaves will be confident of shocking the league giants.
They’ve only lost two of their eight La Liga home games, and with four wins in that stretch, their optimism is justified.
Real Madrid’s decline in recent weeks has led to speculations that Xabi Alonso’s job might be on the line. Los Blancos, who started the season well and even settled at the league summit, have since ceded ground.
They are four points behind new leaders Barcelona after the 2-0 loss at home to Celta Vigo last week. A recent dip in form has the Spanish giants on just one win in the last five matches and failing to score in two of those outings.
Their case was made even more dire with the 2-1 loss to Manchester City in midweek in the Champions League. That left the visitors with just two wins in the last eight matches.
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Alavés v Real Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.8 | 4.3 | 1.61 |
|
|
6.15 | 4.02 | 1.56 |
|
|
6.15 | 4.02 | 1.56 |
|
|
5.75 | 4 | 1.57 |
|
|
5.8 | 3.95 | 1.57 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Alavés and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Alavés vs Real Madrid match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/12/2025 between Alavés and Real Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.34% for a win of Alavés against Real Madrid with odds of 6.15 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Alavés vs Real Madrid is 24.66% with odds of 4.3 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 47% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Alavés with odds of 1.64 at 888Starz.
Alavés - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Alavés Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 47% | 1.64 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.12% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 55.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Real Madrid | 22.84% | 4.33 at Bet365 |
Alavés vs Real Madrid Form
Alavés and Real Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
86 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 |
|
14
|
43 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -12 |
Alavés and Real Madrid Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
20 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
30 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
Alavés vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2024 - LaLiga
14 May 2024 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2023 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2022 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2021 - LaLiga
Alavés against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
R. Montero
R. Fernandez
DefenderM. Diarra
Y. Enriquez
A. Guevara
C. Benavidez
J. Guridi
C. Alena
C. Vicente
A. Manas
M. Diaz
T. Martinez
S. Mestre
A. Lunin
DefenderJ. Martinez
D. Huijsen
T. Pitarch Pinar
J. Cestero
D. Ceballos
ForwardG. Garcia
F. Mastantuono
B. Diaz
Missing players
D. Alaba
D. Carvajal
T. Alexander-Arnold
F. Mendy
E. Militao
F. Garcia
A. Carreras
MidfielderE. Camavinga
ForwardEndrick
Most goals and assists
Alavés
Real Madrid
T. Martinez
(14 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
C. Alena
(4 Assists)
, 
A. Rebbach
(4 Assists)
,
A. Hidalgo
(4 Assists)
A. Guler
(9 Assists)
Alavés - Real Madrid Key Points
- Real Madrid are winless in their last two outings.
- Real Madrid have won just twice in their last eight games.
- Three of Real Madrid’s last five away games ended in draws.
- Alaves avoided defeat at home in six of their eight matches this season.
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Our Alavés vs Real Madrid Prediction
The pressure is mounting at Real Madrid, and it is not only on their new manager but also on the players. While they are coming off two straight home defeats, away matches haven't been promising either. It will further complicate Real Madrid’s situation that Alaves have been doing well in their home matches.
Though Real Madrid has been the dominant side in this fixture, there are doubts they can continue with that this time. Our prediction for Alaves v Real Madrid is for a draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Alavés Real Madrid
| Alavés vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés wins | 6.25 | 6.15 | -1.6% |
| Draw | 4.76 | 4.3 | -9.7% |
| Real Madrid wins | 1.46 | 1.64 | +12.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 12.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 68.5% and is now 61.0% (-7.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
