Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction & Betting Tips - Eredivisie
Netherlands - Eredivisie
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by Thobelani Moyo | in Eredivisie Predictions
Ajax host NEC Nijmegen at Johan Cruijff Arena on matchday 24 of the Eredivisie. Ajax are in fourth place in the league standings, while Nijmegen are in third place. Here's our match prediction.
Ajax's response to their 2-1 home defeat against Olympiacos on the final matchday of the UEFA Champions League - league phase has been a three-match unbeaten run in the Eredivisie.
However, it hasn't been a convincing display with the team recording two draws and a solitary win. Their lone win during that period came against Fortuna Sittard, winning 4-1 at home.
The Amsterdammers are at home once again, this time seeking their second win on the bounce. There is little cause for complaint regarding their performances at Johan Cruijff Arena this season. Besides winning their last two matches, they have the joint-best home record with 26 points amassed from a possible 36.
NEC Nijmegen are in the hunt for the second spot in the league standings, with three points separating them from the desired position.
Recent results have hindered their progress as NEC enter this match winless in their last two league games. Their recent match ended in a 1-1 away draw against Sparta Rotterdam.
In unfamiliar territory, their performance has been impressive. They have avoided defeat in their last six matches, recording four wins and two draws.
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Ajax v NEC Nijmegen Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.79 | 4.1 | 3.85 |
|
|
1.79 | 4.04 | 4.02 |
|
|
1.79 | 4.04 | 4.02 |
|
|
1.8 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.77 | 3.9 | 3.75 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?
Our prediction for the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen match is: Ajax wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/02/2026 between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.7% for a win of Ajax against NEC Nijmegen with odds of 1.84 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen is 27.03% with odds of 4.3 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.26% chance ⭐ for a win of NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax with odds of 4.1 at LSbet.
Ajax - NEC Nijmegen Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ajax NEC Nijmegen Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 37.7% | 1.84 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.22% | |
| Both Team To Score | 76.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Ajax/Ajax | 15.28% | 2.75 at Bet365 |
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Form
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen's standings in the Eredivisie
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
59 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | +24 |
|
5
|
56 | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | +21 |
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
8 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
11 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
11 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
7 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
4 Feb 2026 - KNVB beker
31 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
7 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
4 Feb 2026 - KNVB beker
24 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
29 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
31 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
20 Jan 2026 - KNVB beker
17 Jan 2026 - Eredivisie
16 Dec 2025 - KNVB beker
13 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
33 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
20 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
11 May 2025 - Eredivisie
1 Dec 2024 - Eredivisie
18 Feb 2024 - Eredivisie
3 Dec 2023 - Eredivisie
5 Mar 2023 - Eredivisie
Ajax against NEC Nijmegen Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
J. Heerkens
P. Reverson
DefenderT. Tomiyasu
A. Gaaei
J. Mokio
A. Bouwman
MidfielderO. Gloukh
A. Ouazane
ForwardO. Edvardsen
S. Berghuis
W. Weghorst
M. Carrizo
J. Cillessen
DefenderD. Fonville
B. Nuytinck
J. Willems
B. Pereira
MidfielderW. Willumsson
D. Proper
I. Hansen-Aaroen
ForwardDanilo
Y. El Kachati
K. Ogawa
Vura
Missing players
O. Zinchenko
K. Itakura
Most goals and assists
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
M. Godts
(17 Goals)
B. Linssen
(11 Goals)
M. Godts
(12 Assists)
K. Sano
(8 Assists)
Ajax - NEC Nijmegen Key Points
- Ajax are unbeaten in their last ten league games.
- NEC Nijmegen are winless in their last two league games.
- Ajax have won their last two home league games.
- NEC Nijmegen have won just one of their last 28 away league games against Ajax.
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Our Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction
Ajax are set to be without new signing Oleksandr Zinchenko, who sustained a serious knee injury in his second match against Sittard. Despite this, interim manager Fred Grim should have plenty of talent to choose from. The Amsterdammers drew their previous match against Nijmegen, but there's reason to believe they can get the job done.
Nijmegen have the third-best away record in the league, but they face a side with the joint-best home record. Their visits to the Johan Cruijff Arena have been unpleasant, with three defeats in five games indicating an unfavourable outcome here. Our Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction: Ajax wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ajax NEC Nijmegen
| Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 1.9 | 1.84 | -3.2% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 4.3 | +13.2% |
| NEC Nijmegen wins | 3.55 | 4.1 | +15.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ajax is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.6% and is now 54.3% (1.7%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
