Will the Boston Celtics finally break through this year?
by Joseph King | by Joseph King
Highly consistent but coming up just short
The Celtics have made the Conference Finals in five of the last seven seasons. They finished as runners-up four times and made the Finals in 2022. Last year saw them battle back from a 3-0 deficit to even the series up at 3-3. However, they would ultimately lose game seven to the Miami Heat, a team that has been a familiar nemesis over the last five years. Since the 2016/17 season, Boston has had only one season where they finished with less than a .598 winning percentage (the COVID shortened 2020/21 season where they finished .500).
The good news for Boston fans is that the team has clearly improved over the team that won 57 games in the previous campaign. With the additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to complement the core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, Boston has a case for the best starting five in the NBA. As the current consensus bookmakers title favorites, the path to the NBA championship does appear at the moment that it will have to go through Boston.
Boston shines in the advanced statistics
The Celtics hold the NBA’s best record currently at 25-6. In addition, they’re also a perfect 16-0 at the TD Garden. It shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to learn that Boston is putting up elite advanced metrics. Their adjusted net rating at +9.5 is the highest the NBA has seen since the 2017 Golden State Warriors. The Celtics rank first in adjusted offensive rating and third in adjusted defensive rating and they’ve accomplished all of this despite playing the fourth hardest ranked strength of schedule according to dunksandthrees.
When looking at their shooting efficiency, we see that Boston ranks third on offense in terms of effective FG% at 57%. On the defensive side, they’re holding opponents to just 52.6%, the fourth-best mark in the league.
Deepest starting five in the league?
A look at the Celtics’ current starting five statistics shows us a few things:
| Player | Games started | Points per game | Rebounds per game | Assists per game | Steals per game | Blocks per game | Win shares | Value over replacement (VORP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | 29 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Derrick White | 28 | 17.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| Jaylen Brown | 29 | 22.9 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Jayson Tatum | 29 | 27.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 22 | 20.2 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
The first thing that stands out is how deep this lineup is. Boston is the only team in the NBA to have three players averaging 20 or more points per game.
Additionally, Derrick White deserves some love. The 29-year-old is one of Boston’s most important players. Tatum, Brown and Porzingis will grab the headlines, but fans know how important White is to the team. He's a top-tier defender, earning his spot on the 2022/23 All-Defensive second team. White is also one of the team’s most efficient shooters with 49/41/89 splits. Head over to SportyTrader's NBA Livescore page to stay up to date with the action!
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Road to the NBA championship
Eastern Conference
The way things are shaping up, it certainly appears as though the Celtics will match up against the 76ers or the Bucks, potentially even both depending on how things play out, at some point in the playoffs. The two aforementioned squads are having impressive seasons in their own right. Philly ranks second in adjusted net rating at +8.4, putting a healthy +2.2 difference between themselves and third-place OKC (+6.2).
The two teams have faced off three times so far this campaign with the Sixers taking the first game before Boston won the next two in a row. As for Milwaukee, the Celtics secured a 119-116 home victory over the Bucks in their only meeting so far back in November. Follow along with the East's action by heading over to SportyTrader's NBA Livescore page!
Western Conference
Looking ahead to potential Finals opponents, the West appears to be more open than ever. One of the surprise teams this season has been the Timberwolves who are currently leading the West standings. As we’ve highlighted in our previous NBA championship article, they are not a team to be overlooked. They have an outstanding defense and a legit late-game killer in Anthony Edwards who is getting better and better with every game. In addition to Minnesota, OKC is another surprise team that has taken a significant leap from last season’s squad that finished 40-42. The underlying numbers back up the Thunder as legit contenders and they have an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way.
Then there are the defending champions, quietly putting together another solid season. Denver is currently third in the West with a 23-11 record and ranks fourth in adjusted net rating at +5.3, up from last year’s mark of +2.7. Nikola Jokic continues his brilliant play and is the current MVP favorite in at some bookmakers. Looking for tips on the latest NBA action? Check out SportyTrader's NBA betting tips page to see the latest analysis, completely free!
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Current NBA championship odds
Here are the latest top 10 odds for the NBA championship:
- Boston Celtics - 4.50
- Denver Nuggets - 5.00
- Milwaukee Bucks - 5.00
- Phoenix Suns - 10.00
- Philadelphia 76ers - 11.00
- LA Clippers - 13.00
- LA Lakers 17.00
- Minnesota Timberwolves - 21.00
- OKC Thunder - 29.00
- Dallas Mavericks - 29.00
Odds found on bet365
With the way they have performed so far this season, Boston is looking a clear cut above the rest. They're definitely our pick to make it out of the East. We have them matching up with the Nuggets in the NBA Finals. However, time will tell if they're able to exorcise the demons of past seasons and finally make it over the hump to lift what would be a record 18th Larry O'Brien trophy. Keep on top of the latest odds by checking out our NBA betting odds page.
