Which Team Will Win the 2023/24 NBA Championship?
by Joseph King | by Joseph King
The stand-out teams so far
Roughly two weeks have passed in the new NBA season which has allowed each team to get about seven to nine games under their belt. While it’s certainly still early, it’s allowed us to get a good look at which teams are looking like legitimate contenders and which are pretenders. There’s also plenty of information to glean from the current betting odds; which teams the bookmakers favor and which they might be undervaluing. Below we'll take a look at the top three teams from each conference that have stood out the most so far, their statistics and their current betting odds (all odds taken from bet365). As a reminder, you can head over to SportyTrader's NBA betting odds page to find and compare the latest odds.
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Eastern Conference
Not too much of a surprise here in what is a rather top-heavy conference when compared to the West. These three teams will likely be battling it out for the top seed all season. Below is a look at the advanced metrics of our top three Eastern Conference teams to watch. Parenthesis next to the the statistic indicates overall ranking among all NBA teams.
| Team | Adjusted Net Rating | Adj.Offensive Rating | Adj. Defensive Rating | Avg. Scoring Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics | +9.0 (1st) | 117.1 (1st) | 108.1 (2nd) | +12.0 (1st) |
| 76ers | +5.2 (3rd) | 115.1 (4th) | 109.9 (5th) | +11.7 (2nd) |
| Bucks | +2.8 (7th) | 114.9 (6th) | 112.1 (14th) | -2.3 (17th) |
Boston Celtics
- Record: 5W-2L
- Standing: Third-place
- Betting odds - 4.50
The Boston Celtics are the first name on our list in the East. They’re the current betting favorites and have retained the majority of their strong nucleus in Tatum, Brown, Horford and White. They also made a pair of potentially title-winning moves in the offseason with the acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, both of whom have settled in nicely in the starting five. The Celtics lead in many of the advanced metrics, although the numbers will be slightly skewed due to the 155-104 beatdown they laid on the Pacers.
Philadelphia 76ers
- Record: 6W-1L
- Standing: First-place
- Betting odds: 19.00
The blockbuster trade which sent James Harden to the Clippers has seemingly invigorated this team. Point guard Tyrese Maxey is now fulfilling his potential and is the current favorite to win the Most Improved Player of the Year award. Reigning MVP Joel Embiid is running the show as usual, leading the league with 31.7 points per game. They’ve become an extremely deep team after the trade, however it remains to be seen if GM Daryl Morey is going to stand pat or deal some of the draft picks and recently acquired players to land a big name.
Milwaukee Bucks
- Record: 5W-3L
- Standing: Fifth-place
- Betting odds: 5.00
The Bucks made the headline grabbing trade of the offseason when they acquired seven-time All-NBA point guard Damian Lillard from Portland. Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo form one of the very best duos in the NBA with Khris Middleton an excellent complementary third-option. It’s been a bit of a mixed start for Milwaukee as they adapt to an overhauled roster and a new coach. Giannis has seen his points total drop to 24.3 through the first seven games while Dame is struggling to shoot the ball at just 29.5% from three. However, they have begun to turn things around in recent games.
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Western Conference
The West is certainly the more interesting conference as there is much more parity among the teams. There can be legitimate cases made for five or more teams to win the championship. These are the three that have impressed us the most:
| Team | Adjusted Net Rating | Adj.Offensive Rating | Adj. Defensive Rating | Avg. Scoring Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuggets | +5.6 (2nd) | 116.2 (2nd) | 110.6 (12th) | +10.0 (4th) |
| Warriors | +3.0 (5th) | 113.8 (7th) | 110.8 (13th) | +4.8 (8th) |
| Timberwolves | +4.5 (4th) | 111.9 (15th) | 107.3 (1st) | -+10.6 (3rd) |
Denver Nuggets
- Record: 8W-1L
- Standing: First-place
- Betting odds: 5.50
In the West, the defending champion Denver Nuggets have picked up right where they left off last year and are off to an impressive 8-1 start. They hold a 1.5 game lead over the Mavericks for the top spot in the conference. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has been his usual virtuoso self, averaging 29.1 points per game, 12.9 rebounds and 8.0 assists. As we looked at previously, the Nuggets have the best starting five in the league when everyone is healthy. They’re running like a well-oiled machine at the moment with their offense ranking second best in the NBA.
Golden State Warriors
- Record: 6W-3L
- Standing: Fourth-place
- Betting odds: 13.00
The Warriors home-grown, hall-of-fame trio looks like they may well have one more championship run in them. Steph, Klay, Draymond and the Warriors were inexplicably bad when playing on the road last season, managing a record of 11-30 compared to their 33-8 home record. Early signs in the 2023/24 campaign point towards Golden State fixing that flaw as they’ve already accumulated a 5-2 road record in their first nine games. The newly-acquired Chris Paul coming off the bench acts as a stabilizing force for what is a very talented second unit. This Dubs team has Steph Curry still playing at an MVP-caliber level and a deep bench. They’ll certainly make noise in the playoffs.
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Minnesota Timberwolves
- Record: 5W-2L
- Standings: Third-place
- Betting odds: 61.00
The surprise team on this list, the Timberwolves have impressed in the first few games of the regular season. Minnesota ranks as the best defense in the NBA with the Rudy Gobert trade from last season now looking like a masterstroke. The 31-year-old, three-time defensive player of the year is the anchor in what is a ferocious Twolves defense that has size, lateral quickness and toughness. With Anthony Edwards now taking another leap forward in his progression (27.9 ppg, 51% FG, 43% 3PT), it wouldn’t surprise us to see this team challenging for a top four seed.
Our prediction for the 2023/24 NBA champion
At the current betting odds, it's hard to pass up on the Nuggets at 5.50 to go back-to-back and win their second NBA championship. One of the main knocks on the Nuggets coming into the season was their bench depth and where the production would come from when Nikola Jokic sits. However, some solid contributions from the likes of Braun, Watson, Strawther and Reggie Jackson have this looking like a suprisingly solid unit. Finally, we can't help but grab the value in the Timberwolves at absurd odds of 61.00 to win the championship. This team is being heavily undervalued by the betting market in our eyes as they have the pieces to cause any team in the league major problems. Follow all of the above teams throughout the season with our NBA Livescore tool! Additionally, you can head over to our NBA betting tips page for the latest NBA analysis and tips!
