What Have We Learned on the Road to Roland Garros?
by Kevin Richard |
What Have We Learned on the Road to Roland Garros?
It's been a busy European clay court season but now we're finally on the way to Roland Garros. The men's singles looks to be more open than in some years gone by. Rafael Nadal is only the third favourite behind defending champion Novak Djokovic and rising star Carlos Alcaraz. Just wait till you see what the draw has in store for those players! The women's singles has the main question of just who can beat Iga Swiatek?
Let's look at the top players and those who might be capable of causing upsets at Roland Garros this year. Just what has the Road to Roland Garros told us over the past few weeks?
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The New Kid on the Block
This time last year, Carlos Alcaraz wasn't even in the top 100. 12 months on and the Spaniard is the world number six and second favourite to win at Roland Garros. He's played 31 singles matches this year and lost just three of them. Earlier in the year, he won a clay court tournament in Rio de Janeiro, so a good European clay court season was expected.
He had won the Miami Masters before heading to Europe but had a disappointing start. Alcaraz lost in the last 32 in Monte Carlo to Sebastian Korda. However, since then he has played the tournaments in Barcelona and Madrid and won both of them. He's won ten matches in a row and six of those victories came against players ranked in the top 20. In Madrid, he beat Nadal, Djokovic and Zverev in successive days.
This is his third time at Roland Garros but the first in which he hasn't had to qualify. His best performance is reaching the last 32 in 2021. He's in great form but remember at Roland Garros, he has to play five-set matches not the usual three-setters he's been playing for the past few months. Can he win his first Grand Slam?
Djokovic Back in Form
Novak Djokovic is the defending champion and bidding to reach his third successive final. He's had a stop-go year so far due to his views on Covid. They seem to be behind him at present but he made a slow start to the European clay court season, losing in the last 32 in Monte Carlo,
Back in his native Serbia, Djokovic made it to the final in Belgrade but lost to Andrey Rublev. Madrid saw him take on Carlos Alcaraz and he was beaten in the semi-final. Finally, he won his first tournament of the year in Rome. He showed improved form with wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Casper Ruud and in the final, Stefanos Tsitsipas. That was much needed as he attempts to successfully defend his Roland Garros title and stay top of the rankings.
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Another Title for Nadal?
It's rare to see Rafa Nadal as the third favourite to win a tournament, let alone Roland Garros. That's the situation this year despite the fact the Spaniard has had some excellent form this year. He didn't lose a match until being beaten in the Indian Wells final by Taylor Fritz. Nadal suffered an injury in that match and didn't play on the European clay court season until Madrid.
He lost in the quarter finals to Carlos Alcaraz in that comeback tournament. He fared even worse in Rime when being beaten in the last 16 by Dennis Shapovalov. It's only the third time since 2004 that he's got to Roland Garros still looking for his first clay court title of the year. That includes 2021 when only one event was played due to the pandemic. Nadal could well roll back the years in a tournament that he's won 13 times in the past.
Tsitsipas Out to Go One Better
Next to Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas has been the most consistent player on the Road to Roland Garros. He won the Monte Carlo Masters for the second successive year. Then he reached the last eight in Barcelona, being beaten by Alcaraz. He got a round further in Madrid, getting to the semi-finals before being beaten by Alexander Zverev. Tsitsipas reached his second clay court final of the year in Rome but was defeated by Djokovic.
Tsitsipas is yet to win a Grand Slam title. He was two sets to love up on Djokovic in the 2021 French Open final but lost in five sets. He's reached at least the semi-final in three of his last five Grand Slams and as you'll soon read, hasn't got the kind of draw those in the top half have to face.
Zverev Chasing First Title of the Year
2021 saw Alexander Zverev win six titles. As he heads to Roland Garros, the German is yet to lift a trophy this year. He has had a good clay court season to date though with one notable exception. That was in Munich where he was the defending champion but lost to eventual winner Holger Rune in the last 16. His other three tournaments have gone much better though.
Zverev got to the last four in Monte Carlo but was beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas. He got to the final in Madrid but lost in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz. That was a controversial final as Zverev had seen his semi-final finish in the early hours of Sunday, so his opponent was a lot fresher. Rome saw him get to another semi-final, again losing out to Stefanos Tsitsipas.
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Who else has done well on the Road to Roland Garros? Andrey Rublev beat Novak Djokovic to win the title in the Serbia Open, even winning the final set 6-0. He also got to the last eight in Madrid. Casper Ruud reached the quarter finals in both Barcelona and Munich before a semi-final in Rome. He;s in the final in Geneva on May 21 where he'll face an unseeded opponent. Pablo Carreno Busta reached the final in Barcelona but has disappointed since.
Felix Auger-Aliassime could be a good bet to get to the quarter finals. He's reached the last eight in four of the six clay court tournaments he's played recently. He's still waiting to reach the last four though. Jannik Sinner also has two quarter final appearances, as does Hubert Hurkacz. Diego Schwartzman reached the semi-finals in Barcelona. Grigor Dimitrov is a player the top seeds won't want to meet. He got to the semi-finals in Monte Carlo and the last 16 in Barcelona and Madrid. Three times he's been beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Who has had a bumpy road to Roland Garros? Daniil Medvedev has been out injured and only made his comeback in Geneva this week. It didn't go well and he lost in his first match to Richard Gasquet. Taylor Fritz only played in Monte Carlo and lost in the quarter finals. Denis Shapovalov has just one quarter final in Rome and Reilly Opelka had lost his first round matches in Madrid and Rome before reaching the semi-finals in Lyon.
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The Perils of the Draw
The draw is of course very important. It was always going to be interesting for the men's singles with Rafa Nadal only seeded fifth and Carlos Alcaraz sixth. The bad news for Novak Djokovic and his two rivals (the top three in the betting) is that all of them are in the top half of the draw. We could see Djokovic v Nadal in the quarter finals. The winner could then face either Alcaraz or third seeded Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals. All of this means that of Djokovic, Nadal, Alcaraz and Zverev, only one can make it to the final. Nadal could even meet Stan Wawrinka in the second round.
A possible fly in the ointment could be Grigor Dimitrov who could face Djokovic in the last eight. Felix Auger-Aliassime is also in a tough top half of the draw. He's likely to face Nadal in the last eight.
The bottom half of the draw features second seeded Daniil Medvedev and fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas. Medvedev has not got the greatest of records at Roland Garros with just one quarter final appearance. That was last year and before that he'd had four first round exits. He may have to face Busta and Rublev before the semi-finals and then take on Tsitsipas. He doesn't look like a potential semi-finalist. Jannik Sinner may take advantage. Holger Rune won in Munich and is one to look out for and will be a tough task for Denis Shapovalov in round one. A Djokovic v Tstisipas final repeat does look likely.
Can Anyone Beat Swiatek?
It's been a great year for Iga Swiatek, The world number one arrives at Roland Garros having won her last 28 matches and five tournaments. Clay court success has come in Stuttgart and Rome. Swiatek won this title two years ago and is one of the few top female players who is in consistent form.
The second seed is Barbora Krejcikova who win Roland Garros last year. However, she's not played since Doha in February and it'd be an achievement for her to repeat her 2021 efforts. That's especially as Krejcikova is also a strong favourite in the women's doubles. Paula Badosa reached the last four in Stuttgart but has struggled since then.
Maria Sakkari has just a quarter final in Rome and Anett Kontaveit (who has a poor record in Grand Slams) only a last eight in Stuttgart. Aryna Sabalenka has slipped down the rankings this year but did get to the final in Stuttgart and the semi-finals in Rome, both times losing in straight sets to Swiatek.
Ons Jabeur is one to look out for. The Tunisian was the runner-up in Charleston just before the start of the European clay court season. That's been followed by a quarter final in Stuttgart, victory in Madrid and losing in the final to Swiatek in Rome.
Garbine Muguruza and Karolina Pliskova have both failed to go deep in any clay court tournaments this year. Jessica Pegula is a good outside bet to do well after getting to the final in Madrid. Emma Raducanu did well against Iga Swiatek in Stuttgart and took eight games off her. However, her fitness remains a problem. Simona Halep reached the last eight in Madrid and Belinda Bencic won in Charleston but hasn't got to the last eight in Europe. Outsiders to consider include Daria Kasatkina who has two last 16s in Stuggart and Madrid and a semi-final in Rome. Last year's runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has had injury problems and hasn't won on clay this year.
The draw looks straightforward for Swiatek with Badosa her likely semi-final opponent. In the bottom half of the draw, Jabeur has to be on the shortlist alongside Sakkari to get to the final unless Krejcikova finds form. It looks like anotherSwiatek v Jabeur final with the number one seed victorious.
