Italian Grand Prix: Can McLaren hold off Max Verstappen’s pole pace at Monza?

Italian GP starting grid shaken up after penalties in qualifying 

The Formula 1 season heads to the Home of Ferrari this weekend, with the Italian Grand Prix set to be staged at Monza on Sunday, in what could be a crucial race in the 2025 driver’s championship. 

Max Verstappen produced a blistering lap time of 1m 18.792s to beat McLaren’s Lando Norris by 0.077s to pole position for the Italian GP, while the current driver’s championship leader will start from the second row after finishing 0.190s behind. 

While it looks set to be another shootout between the championship leaders at the front of the pack, there is still plenty to keep an eye on further back in the field after several penalties were handed out after Q3 on Saturday. 

Lewis Hamilton had a solid qualifying session, securing P5, just behind teammate Charles Leclerc, but the seven-time champion will start the Italian Grand Prix from 10th due to the five-grid penalty he received for a pre-race yellow flag infringement at Zandvoort last weekend. 

After failing to make it out of Q1 at the Temple of Speed on Saturday, Isack Hadjar and Pierre Gasly have had their cars taken out of Parc Ferme conditions, and both drivers will start the race from the pit lane, as confirmed by the FIA. 

View F1 betting odds

Constructor championship battle to ignite at Monza

The 2025 Formula 1 season has been an incredible one for McLaren, with Oscar Piastri already 34 points clear of teammate Lando Norris at the top of the driver’s championship standings, while Max Verstappen rounds out the top three. 

The Papaya duo have recorded 12 GP wins and seven first-second finishes between them and are now favourites with all the best online betting sites to clinch the drivers’ and constructors’ double this year. 

With 432 points left to battle for, the earliest that McLaren can mathematically win the constructors’ championship is September 21 at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix!

Given McLaren’s dominance this season, there are also several records that the team could obliterate this season, including winning the constructors’ championship with the most races left, while they could also post the most points in a single season. 

However, all of that will depend on how the next few weeks play out, and the immediate task at hand is for the Aussie-Brit pair to find a way to get by Max Verstappen at Monza, where the Dutchman just recorded the fastest lap in the history of the world championship during qualifying. 

Check out our Italian GP predictions

Ones to watch at the Italian Grand Prix 

Max Verstappen reminded his rivals why he is a four-time champion on Saturday during qualifying when he smashed the lap record at Monza and left McLaren watching tail lights. 

While it may be far-fetched to suggest a title resurgence is back on the cards, the Dutchman’s performance has injected an additional layer of excitement into the race, which many thought would be another two-horse battle between the Papaya pair. 

There were several drivers whom we could pick out as ones to watch on Sunday, but rookie Gariel Bortoleto deserves special mention after bouncing back from his dismal outing in Zandvoort last weekend. 

The Brazilian resumed his hot streak on Saturday, bringing his Sauber across the line in the eighth fastest time in Q3, and he will now start the Italian Grand Prix in P7, thanks to Lewis Hamilton’s five-grid hit. Our tipsters seem to be expecting a big race from Bortoleto, according to our F1 predictions. 

Another beneficiary of Hamilton’s penalty is Yuki Tsunoda, who will start from P9 - his first top 10 start since Belgium. The Japanese driver also revealed after qualifying that he could have gone faster in Q3 if he had been able to take advantage of a slipstream. 

More F1 news