Mali vs Zambia Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Daniel Ngulu | in AFCON Predictions
Mali and Zambia are labeled the tournament dark horses as they head to the 2025 African Cup of Nations. The two will be facing off in their opening exchanges at the competition, playing in Group A, which also has hosts Morocco and Comoros. We have a prediction of this match below.
Mali are making their 15th appearance at Africa’s topmost competition. This time they will hope to do better than their best at AFCON—reaching the final in 1972, their debut. The 2025 edition will mark Mali’s 10th consecutive participation at AFCON, and they’ve only missed one of the last 13.
Zambia, on their part, will want to look at themselves as favorites, making a 19th appearance. Their best performance at this stage was in 2012, when they won the title, improving from two earlier runners-up finishes. Chipolopolo are unbeaten in the opening game at their last six tournament appearances but failed to win the opener in the last three.
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Mali v Zambia Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.75 | 3.35 | 5.2 |
|
|
1.73 | 3.3 | 5.85 |
|
|
1.68 | 3.4 | 6.05 |
|
|
1.75 | 3.3 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.74 | 3.3 | 5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Mali and Zambia?
Our prediction for the Mali vs Zambia match is: Zambia wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/12/2025 between Mali and Zambia in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 64.71% for a win of Mali against Zambia with odds of 1.78 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mali vs Zambia is 18.96% with odds of 3.5 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 16.32% chance ⭐ for a win of Zambia vs Mali with odds of 6.05 at Betwinner.
Mali - Zambia Prediction and Best Odds:
| Mali Zambia Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mali wins | 64.71% | 1.78 at Betway |
| Under 2.5 | 51.15% | 2.04 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 57.14% | 1.65 at Betway |
| Half-time / Full-time : Mali/Mali | 35.46% | 2.88 at Bet365 |
Mali vs Zambia Form
Mali and Zambia's standings in the AFCON
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
|
4
|
2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
Mali and Zambia Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
6 Sept 2024 - AFCON
6 Jun 2024 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Dec 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
6 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Dec 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
8 Oct 2025 - World Cup
14 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
11 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
Mali - Zambia: Form Analysis
Mali have been perennial underachievers at AFCON and hope to change the order this time. Among the teams that have caused them so much pain at this level was Zambia. In their first ever meeting at the AFCON level, Mali lost this match 4-0.
They, however, come into this match on a strong footing, having only lost once and won three times in their last five games. In their only warmup game ahead of this tournament, Mali drew 0-0 with Jordan, and they’ve lost just three of their last 10 outings.
It will build their confidence further, that in their 13 AFCON appearances, Mali have never lost the opener. They won eight times and drew five.
Zambia are winless in their last nine AFCON group stage matches.
Zambia have recently had a change in management, sacking former Chelsea coach Avram Grant. Not much expectation has been placed on new manager Moses Sichone. The lack of optimism as they head into the competition could relieve pressure on the players, but it is also not a great sign.
Chipolopolo, the 2012 African champions, have time and again failed to match the high standards set in that tournament. They are coming into this encounter off the back of four straight defeats and have only won once in their last 10 matches.
In their four appearances after the AFCON 2012 success, Zambia haven't made it past the group stages.
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Mali against Zambia Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
M. Samassa
I. Diawara
DefenderF. Doucoure
N. Gassama
H. Traore
MidfielderG. Diarra
M. Doumbia
O. Camara
L. Coulibaly
A. Haidara
I. Sissoko
M. Camara
ForwardM. Camara
M. Doumbia
G. Diakite
F. Mwansa
T. Mulenga
DefenderD. Hamansenya
F. Musonda
MidfielderD. Simukonda
O. Chisala
J. Liteta
W. Chisala
G. Kalusa
K. Chongo
E. Mandanji
K. Musonda
J. Sabobo
J. Lahne
Missing players
S. Niakate
MidfielderY. Bissouma
Mali & Zambia Squad Analysis
Yves Bissouma has been handed a call to the Mali team despite lacking game time this season. The Tottenham Hotspur midfielder is his nation’s skipper. He is recovering from an ankle injury, and Saintfiet has shown a lot of faith in his inclusion in the 28-man squad.
Djigui Diarra is also a notable inclusion, after his impressive showing with Tanzanian giants Yanga. Brest forward Kamory Doumbia had three goal involvements for his club in the last four games before leaving for the AFCON.
The Malians will rely on his good fortune as they gun for a successful tournament. Mali have only lost once in the last 11 occasions the 22-year-old scored.
Zambia have placed U17 World Cup stars Jonathan Kalimina and Abel Nyirongo on their standby list.
Zambia’s target man will be Leicester City’s Patson Daka. The forward hasn’t had a great season at club level, with only two goal contributions. Taking a break for international duty might just be what he needs.
He will be expected to lead the attack alongside Israel-based Kennedy Musonda, who was the leading scorer in the qualifiers with four goals. This Zambia squad represents a break from the past, with coach Moses Sichone calling up a number of uncapped players.
Mathews Banda, Pascal Phiri, and Eliya Mandanji are some of the notable home-based players vying for first caps.
Most goals and assists
Mali
Zambia
L. Sinayoko
(3 Goals)
P. Daka
(1 Goals)
M. Banda
(1 Assists)
Mali - Zambia Key Points
- Zambia are coming off four straight defeats.
- Away from home, Zambia lost six of their last eight matches.
- Mali have never lost their opening match at AFCON finals, winning eight.
- Mali are unbeaten in their latest two meetings with Zambia, winning once.
- Mali posted three wins in their last five matches and only lost once in the process.
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Our Mali vs Zambia Prediction
When it comes to pedigree in respect to African football and particularly the AFCON finals, Zambia outshines Mali by far. However, considering recent form heading into this match, Mali stands out. Zambia have suffered four straight defeats ahead of this match, and they also lost in the latest meeting with Mali.
With three wins in their last five matches, Mali will be the more confident here too. They’ve never lost the opening game at an AFCON tournament either, winning eight of 13. Our prediction for Mali v Zambia is that Zambia wins.
Mali vs Zambia Alternative Predictions
BTTS: No
Across their last 10 matches, Mali kept six clean sheets, and in the same run, goals were netted on both ends just once. Zambia are also carrying into this game a poor scoring run, having failed to hit the back of the net five times in 10 outings.
Just two of these nations' five meetings have produced draws. As we are backing this to produce a winner, we expect at least one side not to score as our second prediction.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Mali Zambia
| Mali vs Zambia | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali wins | 1.73 | 1.78 | +2.9% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.5 | +6.1% |
| Zambia wins | 4.75 | 6.05 | +27.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Mali is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 57.8% and is now 56.2% (-1.6%)
Mali vs Zambia - FAQs
The Mali v Zambia match will be played on Monday, 22nd December.
The Mali v Zambia match will be played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
