Watford vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Ian John | in Championship Predictions
Two teams with playoff hopes in the Championship clash at Vicarage Road on Saturday as Watford host Derby County. The Hornets have lost their sting of late, winless in their last seven in the league. The visiting Rams have been excellent on the road this season winning eight of their 15 away games, including all their last three. What is the prediction to back for this match?
The current league table in the Championship shows just how tight the race is for that final playoff spot. Derby occupy that sixth place spot in the league with 48 points from 32 games. Watford are 12th in the table with 45 points from 32 games, There are just six points between Derby in sixth and Swansea in 16th in the table.
Watford have not won any of their last eight games, drawing four, losing four. That run includes a 2-0 home defeat to Swansea, which was followed by a 0-0 draw at Hull and then a 1-0 defeat away to Southampton. Last weekend, the Hornets earned a 2-2 draw away to Preston.
Derby's form is markedly better than their opponents and has seen them earn a 1-1 draw at home to WBA, before a fabulous 5-0 thrashing of Bristol City on the road. They then lost 2-1 at home to Ipswich Town, but bounced back last weekend with a 2-0 win over Swansea City.
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Watford v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.04 | 3.4 | 3.65 |
|
|
2 | 3.35 | 3.72 |
|
|
2.02 | 3.34 | 3.66 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
|
|
2.02 | 3.35 | 3.7 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Watford and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Watford vs Derby County match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/02/2026 between Watford and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.93% for a win of Watford against Derby County with odds of 2.1 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Watford vs Derby County is 25.69% with odds of 3.45 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.38% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Watford with odds of 3.8 at Bet365.
Watford - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Watford Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 38.38% | 3.8 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 55.46% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 54.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Derby County | 16.15% | 8.5 at LSbet |
Watford vs Derby County Form
Watford and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
16
|
57 | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | -12 |
Watford and Derby County Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
3 Feb 2026 - Championship
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
21 Jan 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
21 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
9 Dec 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
3 Feb 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
15 Dec 2025 - Championship
Watford vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
18 Jan 2025 - Championship
24 Aug 2024 - Championship
Watford against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
N. Baxter
DefenderM. Pollock
M. Bola
E. Bove
P. Ekwah
G. Chakvetadze
T. Ince
ForwardK. Baah
M. Doumbia
R. O'Donnell
DefenderD. Murkin
I. Gordon
C. Forsyth
MidfielderO. Fraulo
B. Clark
C. Allen
O. Eames
ForwardC. Morris
Missing players
H. Kyprianou
P. Dwomoh
R. Vata
Most goals and assists
Watford
Derby County
L. Kjerrumgaard
(10 Goals)
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
I. Louza
(9 Assists)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
Watford - Derby County Key Points
- Watford average 1.5 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per home league game.
- Derby County have failed to score in just two of their 32 league games this season.
- Both teams have scored in ten of the last twelve matches between the two teams.
- Both teams have scored in 65% of Derby and Watford league games this season.
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Our Watford vs Derby County Prediction
Our prediction for the Watford vs. Derby County Championship match is: BTTS.
With just six points between Derby County in the final playoff berth and Swansea City in 16th, this is a crucial game for the Rams against a Watford side with yet another new manager and who are struggling for form. The Rams good away form and fine goalscoring record make them likely to score, but Watford are also scoring a fair few at home. Combine those factors and BTTS looks the bet to back here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Watford Derby County
| Watford vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford wins | 1.95 | 2.1 | +7.7% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.45 | +1.5% |
| Derby County wins | 4.1 | 3.8 | -7.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Derby County is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 7.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 24.4% and is now 26.3% (1.9%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
