Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Prediction & Betting Tips - Liga Profesional Argentina
Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Football Predictions
Velez Sarsfield and Independiente are set to face off in a top-of-the-table clash in Liga Profesional. The two have had flying starts to the Clausura, winning their respective matches in the opening two rounds. Seven of the teams’ last 10 meetings had under three goals, and our prediction backs the same.
Velez will be looking to make the most of this home match even though they haven’t been all that stable at home. In Apertura, they won half of their eight home matches before falling at home in the playoffs.
Five of their latest six matches have been at home. Four saw under 2.5 goals scored, while El Fortin didn’t score more than once in the last three home games.
While Velez are coming off a 3-1 win against Talleres Cordoba, Independiente saw off Newell’s Old Boys. The visitors’ 1-0 win was also their second straight clean sheet in the league and third overall.
Independiente will hope to carry the same defensive solidity, as that has in part contributed to their current run of seven wins in 10 matches. Los Diablos Rojos finished fifth in the Apertura and will be eyeing another top-eight position in Zone A.
They will, however, want to improve on their away form, having managed two wins in the eight league matches in Apertura.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Velez Sarsfield v Independiente Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.48 | 3 | 3 |
|
|
2.63 | 2.93 | 3.13 |
|
|
2.52 | 3 | 3.09 |
|
|
2.52 | 3 | 3.09 |
|
|
2.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Velez Sarsfield and Independiente?
Our prediction for the Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/08/2026 between Velez Sarsfield and Independiente in Liga Profesional Argentina :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.2% for a win of Velez Sarsfield against Independiente with odds of 2.63 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente is 27.23% with odds of 3.05 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Independiente vs Velez Sarsfield with odds of 3.2 at Shangrila.
Velez Sarsfield - Independiente Prediction and Best Odds:
| Velez Sarsfield Independiente Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield wins | 38.2% | 2.63 at 1xbet |
| Under 2.5 | 67.5% | 2.05 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 55% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Velez Sarsfield | 14.84% | 6 at Bet365 |
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Form
Velez Sarsfield and Independiente's standings in the Liga Profesional Argentina
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | +6 |
|
6
|
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 |
Velez Sarsfield and Independiente Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
24 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
10 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
4 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
30 Apr 2026 - Copa Argentina
27 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
10 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
4 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
30 Apr 2026 - Copa Argentina
27 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
13 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
20 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
3 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
14 Mar 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
10 Mar 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
2 Mar 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
26 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
22 May 2026 - Copa Argentina
10 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
2 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
24 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
18 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
4 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
27 Mar 2026 - Copa Argentina
21 Mar 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
10 Mar 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jul 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
22 May 2026 - Copa Argentina
10 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
2 May 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
24 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
11 Apr 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
31 Jan 2026 - Liga Profesional Argentina
16 Aug 2025 - Liga Profesional Argentina
12 Feb 2025 - Liga Profesional Argentina
27 Sept 2024 - Copa Argentina
26 May 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
30 Jan 2024 - Copa De La Superliga
Velez Sarsfield against Independiente Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Busso
F. Villalba
DefenderS. Escobar
L. Cristaldo Florentin
A. Pereyra
E. Mammana
A. Veron
C. Baeza
J. Cruz Policella
L. Piola
T. Aguirre
J. Blazquez
DefenderF. Closter
J. De Irastorza
S. Arias
L. Cabral
F. Cruz
L. Millan
J. Arrayago
M. Meza
R. Martinez
ForwardF. Valdez
F. Tempone
Most goals and assists
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
R. Martinez
(8 Goals)
G. Avalos
(11 Goals)
D. Valdes
(6 Assists)
G. Avalos
(5 Assists)
Velez Sarsfield - Independiente Key Points
- In Velez’s last home match, they had a 1.07 xG.
- Three of Independiente’s last five away outings produced under 2.5 goals.
- Under 2.5 goals were scored in seven of these teams’ last 10 meetings.
- At home, each of Velez Sarsfield’s last four games had under 2.5 goals.
- Independiente’s last outing, against Newell’s O.B. had a 0.71 xG.
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Our Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Prediction
Across all competitions, only seven goals were scored in these teams’ last five meetings that were hosted by Velez. From their opening two league matches, the two sides registered a combined three clean sheets. Also, only one of their total four matches at the start of Clausura returned over 2.5 goals.
With their recent matches dominated by low xG and seven of the last 10 meetings having returned two goals or less, we expect a low-scoring affair here. Our prediction for Velez Sarsfield v Independiente is: less than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Velez Sarsfield Independiente
| Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield wins | 2.28 | 2.63 | +15.4% |
| Draw | 2.94 | 3.05 | +3.7% |
| Independiente wins | 3.65 | 3.2 | -12.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Velez Sarsfield is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 15.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 43.9% and is now 38.0% (-5.8%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
