International - CONCACAF Gold Cup
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Football Predictions
The USA facing Mexico in their next match has been described as the final everyone wanted. The two rivals are set to meet in the 2025 Gold Cup final, scheduled for Monday at the NRG Stadium in Houston. There is a simmering rivalry between the two nations, and both will have a say in it after wins against Honduras and Guatemala in the semis. Read on for our prediction of this match.
These two are not just the biggest rivals in this region, they are also the most successful. In this match, Mexico, the defending champions, will be gunning for Gold Cup title number 10. Meanwhile, the USA, the second-most successful, will be up for an eighth championship.
The USA have failed to win this title since 2021. This match marks the final chance for either nation before they get to host the World Cup next year. Heading into the big game, our preview hereby breaks down the encounter.
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The Best Betting Odds for USA v Mexico Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.88 | 2.88 | 2.38 |
|
|
2.9 | 3 | 2.45 |
|
|
3 | 3 | 2.4 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.05 | 2.35 |
|
|
2.95 | 2.84 | 2.45 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between USA and Mexico?
Our prediction for the USA vs Mexico match is: Mexico wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/07/2025 between USA and Mexico in CONCACAF Gold Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.82% for a win of USA against Mexico with odds of 3.1 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between USA vs Mexico is 19.98% with odds of 3.26 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.2% chance ⭐ for a win of Mexico vs USA with odds of 2.55 at BC Game.
USA vs Mexico Form
USA and Mexico Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
29 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
22 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
19 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
15 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
29 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
22 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
15 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
23 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - International Friendlies
27 Jun 2024 - Copa America
20 Nov 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
28 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
22 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
18 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
14 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
28 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
22 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
14 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
20 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
21 Jan 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
10 Sep 2024 - International Friendlies
26 Jun 2024 - Copa America
USA vs Mexico Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
15 Oct 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
15 Jun 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
24 Mar 2022 - World Cup
12 Nov 2021 - World Cup
6 Jun 2021 - CONCACAF Nations League
USA - Mexico: Form Analysis
The USA topped Group D and then went on to beat Costa Rica on penalties before seeing off Guatemala 2-1 in the semis. This is a big moment not just for the US team but also for head coach Mauricio Pochettino.
The Argentine is leading the team to the first final under his charge, and he has done so with largely a makeshift squad. It is widely felt that this team isn’t where it has to be yet, with the World Cup approaching.
Facing a full-strength Mexico side in the final will offer the true measure of this team’s ability. The lingering doubts are based on the defensive mistakes seen against Costa Rica, as well as more than 10 shots faced against a much weaker Guatemala.
The US and Mexico are facing off for the eighth time in the Gold Cup championship match.
Mexico easily pass as the strongest team at the 2025 Gold Cup. Like the USA, El Tri head into this game having won four and drawn one of their Gold Cup matches.
However, they better the USA in the fact that they’ve been much more solid defensively. Mexico recovered from conceding twice in their opening game to record four straight clean sheets in their subsequent four matches.
Their defensive solidity was well on display against an attacking and physical Honduras side in the semis. The Mexicans stood firm and defended their one-goal lead to see off the match.
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USA vs Mexico last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
USA & Mexico Squad Analysis
For the USA to thrive in this match, they must design a way around the Mexican defence. This is where they’ll need the best versions of Malik Tillman and Diego Luna. Tillman has so far been involved in five goals and is a livewire going into the final.
The PSV Eindhoven man carried his club form to this competition and has three goals and two assists so far. He brings an additional quality in being adept at defensive duties.
He is primarily a central midfielder and has shown good chemistry with Real Salt Lake’s Diego Luna. Luna operates as a left winger but can also feature as a right winger or attacking midfielder, and he also has three goals and two assists.
The USA are missing at least five regulars in their Gold Cup squad.
There are two areas Mexico beat the US in: their defensive solidity and the experience in the team. While the USA are grappling with a number of senior players missing, Mexico have at least all they’d want available.
Skipper Edson Alvarez is on 91 caps, while Raul Jimenez’s goal against Honduras was his 41st for El Tri. Interestingly, the man who leads Mexico’s scoring charts is a defender – Cesar Montes.
The 28-year-old has three goals from four matches. He has been an asset in both defence and attack. Goalkeeper Luis Malagon has also held good promise, with four clean sheets in five matches.
Most goals and assists
USA
Mexico
M. Tillman
(3 Goals)
,
D. Luna
(3 Goals)
C. Montes
(3 Goals)
M. Arfsten
(3 Assists)
O. Pineda
(1 Assists)
,
E. Alvarez
(1 Assists)
,
S. Gimenez
(1 Assists)
,
A. Vega
(1 Assists)
,
J. Quinones
(1 Assists)
,
G. Mora
(1 Assists)
USA - Mexico Key Points
- The USA lost four times in their last nine games.
- Mexico lost only once in their last nine matches.
- The USA conceded in each of the last three matches.
- Mexico have four straight clean sheets coming into this outing.
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Our USA vs Mexico Prediction
The USA may be playing at home, and with most of the crowd being behind them, but it is the Mexicans who hold the favorites’ tag coming here. Mexico have molded their side on defensive solidity, and as such, they’ve found it easy to settle games once they score.
At this particular tournament, they haven’t conceded in the last four matches. That, and the fact they only failed to score once in nine matches, should scare their hosts. The US aren’t as solid at the back as the Mexicans, and that might cost them. Our prediction for the USA v Mexico is that Mexico wins the match.
USA vs Mexico - Other Interesting Predictions
Second half to have the most goals for the visitors.
Mexico haven't been fast starters in this tournament; most of their goals have come in the second half. In their opening game, the first goal came just a minute to halftime, and that happens to stand as their only first-half goal.
The visitors have scored seven more goals, all coming in the final 45 minutes. As such, we are backing the second half to have the most goals for the visitors.
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USA vs Mexico match : Frequently asked questions
The USA v Mexico match will be played on Monday, 7th July.
The USA v Mexico match will be hosted at the NRG Stadium in Houston.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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