International - International Friendlies
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Football Predictions
The 2026 World Cup co-hosts USA will look to continue their preparations with a home friendly against Ecuador on Friday night local time. This match between the Yanks and La Tri comes with our prediction of under 2.5 goals.
The USA automatically qualified for next year’s World Cup as co-hosts along with Mexico and Canada. Ecuador qualified by finishing second in the CONMEBOL section with the best defensive record.
Mauricio Pochettino’s USA won 2-0 at home against Japan in their latest international friendly in September. That was preceded by a 2-0 defeat to South Korea, so Pochettino is still looking to get some consistent wins under his belt.
The Yanks have won just two of their last five matches, including friendlies, drawing one and losing two. Considering only friendlies, the USA have lost three of their recent four matches, with their only win coming against Japan last time out.
Ecuador finished their World Cup qualification campaign with just two defeats (W8, D8, L2) and had the best defensive record with only five goals conceded. They had a 1-0 home win over Argentina in their last fixture, which extended their unbeaten run to ten matches (W4, D6).
Each of those six draws have seen a 0-0 scoreline, and Ecuador are unlikely to give much leeway to the US forwards.
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The Best Betting Odds for USA v Ecuador Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.38 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.4 | 3 | 3 |
|
|
2.43 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between USA and Ecuador?
Our prediction for the USA vs Ecuador match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/10/2025 between USA and Ecuador in International Friendlies :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.23% for a win of USA against Ecuador with odds of 2.54 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between USA vs Ecuador is 32.65% with odds of 3.3 at BC Game.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.13% chance ⭐ for a win of Ecuador vs USA with odds of 3.2 at Melbet.
USA - Ecuador Prediction and Best Odds:
| USA Ecuador Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| USA wins | 41.23% | 2.54 at 22bet |
| Under 2.5 | 66.95% | 2.13 at 22bet |
| Both Team To Score | 29.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: USA | 24.36% | 5.75 at Unibet |
USA vs Ecuador Form
USA and Ecuador Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
2 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
29 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
22 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
2 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
29 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
22 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
23 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - International Friendlies
27 Jun 2024 - Copa America
20 Nov 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - World Cup
10 Oct 2024 - World Cup
10 Sept 2024 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - World Cup
15 Oct 2024 - World Cup
6 Sept 2024 - World Cup
USA vs Ecuador Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
21 Mar 2019 - International Friendlies
Players list
M. Freese
DefenderM. Robinson
C. Richards
T. Ream
MidfielderT. Tessmann
M. Tillman
W. McKennie
A. Morris
M. Arfsten
ForwardT. Weah
F. Balogun
H. Galindez
DefenderJ. Ordonez
A. Preciado
W. Pacho
P. Estupinan
MidfielderA. Franco
J. Yeboah
J. Alcivar
K. Paez
P. Vite
ForwardE. Valencia
Substitutes
M. Turner
C. Brady
P. Schulte
DefenderA. Freeman
M. McKenzie
C. Carter-Vickers
MidfielderC. Roldan
J. Sands
B. Aaronson
D. Luna
ForwardC. Pulisic
H. Wright
P. Agyemang
G. Valle
M. Ramirez
DefenderJ. Chavez
C. Ramirez
F. Torres
MidfielderY. Medina Ortiz
D. Guagua
D. Castillo
P. Mercado
ForwardJ. Mercado
B. Ramirez
A. Minda
L. Campana
N. Angulo
K. Rodriguez
Missing players
J. Cardoso
Most goals and assists
USA
Ecuador
D. Luna
(3 Goals)
,
M. Tillman
(3 Goals)
M. Arfsten
(3 Assists)
USA - Ecuador Key Points
- Ecuador failed to score in four of their last five matches.
- Ten of Ecuador’s last 12 matches have returned under 1.5 goals, failing to score in seven.
- USA failed to score in two of their last three international friendlies.
- USA’s last two games saw exactly two goals scored.
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Our USA vs Ecuador Prediction
Ecuador have struggled on the road recently and won just one of their last ten away games. Will that hamper them in this fixture against the USA? Mind you, Mauricio Pochettino hasn’t had consistent wins with public opinion over his tenure divided. That said, they should fancy winning this match against a team they have easily brushed aside in recent history, although the last of those matches was played in 2019.
This fixture could be a tight game with goals likely to be scarce, and our USA vs Ecuador prediction is under 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis USA Ecuador
| USA vs Ecuador | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA wins | 2.55 | 2.38 | -6.7% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.2 | -3.0% |
| Ecuador wins | 2.6 | 2.9 | +11.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- USA is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.2% and is now 42.0% (2.8%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the USA vs. Ecuador game!
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Try your luck on this year's International Friendlies! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
