Tour de France - Stage 16 Predictions & Betting tips - Tour de France

Prediction published on 21/07/2025, 13:32  by Matthew Newman | Modified on 23/07/2025 at 11:55

It's straight back into the mountains on Stage 16 of the Tour de France as the peloton races up Mont Ventoux. This stage is completely flat until the 15.7km of climb at an average of 8.8%. It's a brutal climb, so we're looking for the mountain goats in our prediction.

Wout van Aert won in 2021, the last time that Ventoux was climbed, though that stage finished with a long descent the other side rather than finishing at the top. He showed a little better form on Stage 15 before the off day.

The gaps at the top of the general classification mean that Tadej Pogacar only has three riders within 10 minutes of him, which makes this easier for UAE Team Emirates to control. He is 1.44 with the bookmakers, which seems short enough as he doesn't need to win this, just control Jonas Vingegaard.

Felix Gall finally showed what he can do on Stage 14. He couldn't catch Thymen Arensman, who proved his strength, but only the big two got past Gall. Both he and Arensman look likely candidates to take this stage.

At a huge price, this could be the day that Primoz Roglic attacks with just a single climb; he can devote all his energy to that one mountain. He is far enough off the leader but also close enough to still have claim of the podium.