Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Lorient and Toulouse are pushing on with their top-six ambitions ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting this Saturday. Toulouse, who play host here, are 11th in the standings, two spots below Lorient, who with 37 points have garnered three more than the home team. We have a prediction of the match below.
After winless runs spanning at least three matches, both these sides won in their latest outings. Toulouse claimed the spoils in a seven-goal thriller against bottom side Metz.
Mario Sauer’s stoppage-time goal ensured they snatched a 4-3 win, a first victory in regular time in seven outings. In those seven matches, Toulouse have failed to keep a clean sheet.
Lorient are also coming from a win, though against a much tougher opponent. They braved it all to dent Lens’ title chase with a 2-1 win at home in their last outing.
That was the sixth straight outing in which they avoided defeat inside regular time. However, Les Merlus have only managed two wins in that run. The visitors have managed just one clean sheet in their last seven Ligue 1 matches.
There will also be some improvement required on the road after failing to win any of the last three away matches. In general they haven't been at their best on their travels, Lorient managing just two wins in 13 away games.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Toulouse v Lorient Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.83 | 3.55 | 5 |
|
|
1.81 | 3.32 | 4.98 |
|
|
1.81 | 3.32 | 4.98 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.3 | 5 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.25 | 4.6 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Toulouse and Lorient?
Our prediction for the Toulouse vs Lorient match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/03/2026 between Toulouse and Lorient in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.71% for a win of Toulouse against Lorient with odds of 1.9 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Toulouse vs Lorient is 36.88% with odds of 3.55 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.41% chance ⭐ for a win of Lorient vs Toulouse with odds of 5.07 at 888Starz.
Toulouse - Lorient Prediction and Best Odds:
| Toulouse Lorient Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 36.88% | 3.55 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 54.74% | 2.05 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 55.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 18.37% | 5 at Bet365 |
Toulouse vs Lorient Form
Toulouse and Lorient's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9
|
45 | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | -3 |
|
10
|
44 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | +1 |
Toulouse and Lorient Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
15 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Feb 2026 - French Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
7 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
10 Jan 2026 - French Cup
Toulouse vs Lorient Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
50 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
28 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1
3 Dec 2023 - Ligue 1
23 Apr 2023 - Ligue 1
21 Aug 2022 - Ligue 1
31 Oct 2018 - Coupe de la Ligue
Toulouse against Lorient Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 2 - 2 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
K. Haug
N. Said Mchindra
DefenderG. Bakhouche Piernas
W. Kamanzi
M. Sauer
A. Vossah
ForwardE. Da Silva
J. Vignolo
I. Azizi
B. Kamara
DefenderI. Akakpo
I. Monnier
MidfielderD. Semedo
P. Katseris
M. Bley
ForwardS. Soumano
T. Sanusi
A. Tosin
Missing players
C. Cresswell
D. Methalie
MidfielderA. Francis
R. Messali
I. Toure
MidfielderB. Fadiga
ForwardB. Mohamed
Most goals and assists
Toulouse
Lorient
Y. Gboho
(8 Goals)
P. Pagis
(10 Goals)
, 
B. Dieng
(10 Goals)
S. Hidalgo
(5 Assists)
A. Kouassi
(6 Assists)
Toulouse - Lorient Key Points
- In their last 10 matches, Toulouse won just three games and drew three.
- Away from home in the last 16 matches, Lorient only won four times.
- Five of these teams’ last nine meetings ended in draws.
- Lorient posted four draws in their last five matches.
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Our Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction
Half of the last 10 meetings between these two sides didn’t produce a winner, though Toulouse have dominated. Les Violets have won three of the said 10 matchups, while Lorient won twice. The two haven't posted a lot of victories in their Ligue 1 matches, and a share of the spoils looks likely here.
For Lorient, four of their last five matches produced draws, and they only managed four wins in their last 16 home matches. Toulouse, on their part, won just three of 10 matches. Our prediction for Toulouse v Lorient is for a draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Toulouse Lorient
| Toulouse vs Lorient | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse wins | 2.05 | 1.9 | -7.3% |
| Draw | 3.09 | 3.55 | +14.9% |
| Lorient wins | 4.88 | 5.07 | +3.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 14.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 32.4% and is now 28.2% (-4.2%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
