Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty Prediction & Betting Tips - Kazakhstan Premier League
Kazachstan - Kazakhstan Premier League
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by Joseph King | in Football Predictions
Matchday 5 in the Kazakhstan Premier League sees a meeting of top vs. bottom as 16th-place Tobol Kostanay play host to first-placed Kairat Almaty. Will the defending champion Yellow–Blacks continue their hot start or will Tobol spring a surprise? Check out our match prediction below!
Tobol had a strong 2025 season, finishing third in the league and scooping their second Kazakhstan Cup in the last three years. They got the current season off on the right foot by beating out Kairat to the Super Cup 5-4 on penalties.
Since then, however, things have quickly gone downhill. Tobol now find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table after managing just a single point from their first four league matches.
They were, at least, able to get a win on the board in their most recent outing, posting an emphatic 8-0 away win over second-division side FK Ansat in the Kazakhstan Cup on Wednesday.
Kairat, meanwhile, will be looking to keep up the momentum after a fast start. The back-to-back league champs have taken 10 points from the first 12 available to give them a two-point lead over second place.
Kairat ran out routine 3-1 away winners over third-division club Jaiyq Uralsk in the cup on Wednesday for their fourth win from the last five competitive matches.
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Tobol Kostanay v Kairat Almaty Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.75 | 3.3 | 1.82 |
|
|
3.66 | 3.34 | 2.04 |
|
|
3.8 | 3.44 | 1.96 |
|
|
3.6 | 3.3 | 1.98 |
|
|
3.5 | 3.2 | 2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty?
Our prediction for the Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/04/2026 between Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.7% for a win of Tobol Kostanay against Kairat Almaty with odds of 3.8 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty is 21.66% with odds of 3.44 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.64% chance ⭐ for a win of Kairat Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay with odds of 2.04 at Melbet.
Tobol Kostanay - Kairat Almaty Prediction and Best Odds:
| Tobol Kostanay Kairat Almaty Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty wins | 39.64% | 2.04 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.52% | 2.14 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.42% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Kairat Almaty | 16.75% |
Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty Form
Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty's standings in the Kazakhstan Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
26 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 |
|
15
|
9 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 |
Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Apr 2026 - Cup
4 Apr 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
20 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
16 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
7 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Super Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
28 Sept 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
24 Sept 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
19 Sept 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
26 Jul 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Apr 2026 - Cup
4 Apr 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
20 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
7 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Super Cup
26 Oct 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Apr 2026 - Cup
5 Apr 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
28 Mar 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
16 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
7 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
16 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Super Cup
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
26 Oct 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Apr 2026 - Cup
28 Mar 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
7 Mar 2026 - Kazakhstan Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
20 %
40 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Feb 2026 - Super Cup
26 Jul 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
27 Apr 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
25 Aug 2024 - Kazakhstan Premier League
15 Jun 2024 - Kazakhstan Premier League
Tobol Kostanay - Kairat Almaty Key Points
- 12 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams have finished with both teams scoring.
- These two teams drew 2-2 in 90 minutes in their Super Cup meeting at the end of February.
- This fixture last year produced 5.07 xG between the two teams in a 3-1 Kairat win.
- Kairat scored seven goals in their last two outings while Tobol scored eight in their last match.
- Tobol have allowed nine goals in their first four 2026 league fixtures.
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Our Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty Prediction
These two teams were able to pick up some goalscoring mojo in their last outings. For Tobol, it was desperately needed as they have really struggled to begin the league campaign. They’ll now return home to the Central Stadium and try to build on that success.
As for Kairat, they should have all the needed motivation after falling short against Tobol in the Super Cup on penalties just six weeks ago. Recent meetings between these two clubs have produced plenty of goals and exciting matches. Therefore, our Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty prediction is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Tobol Kostanay Kairat Almaty
| Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol Kostanay wins | 2.86 | 3.8 | +32.9% |
| Draw | 3.11 | 3.44 | +10.6% |
| Kairat Almaty wins | 2.55 | 2.04 | -20.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Kairat Almaty is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 20.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.2% and is now 49.0% (9.8%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
