Swansea vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Championship Predictions
Derby County got sloppy in their last outing and were made to pay as their five-game winning run went up in smoke. Now sitting 12th, the Rams will next be on the road at 20th placed Swansea in the 17th round of the Championship. Below we have a prediction of the match.
Swansea had no reprieve after resuming action following the international break. They were thrashed 3-0 by promotion-chasing Bristol City, their third straight defeat in the league.
The Welsh side has now failed to win any of the last five matches, further complicating their chances here. Swansea only have their head-to-head record to cling to here.
Derby County lost each of their last five meetings with Swansea. It will give them jitters, having fallen in their latest outing as well. The visitors are coming off a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Watford.
Derby will feel really disappointed at the defeat. They let slip a 2-0 lead as Edo Kayembe nailed them with two late goals to complete the Hornets’ comeback.
This defeat brought to a screeching halt Derby’s run of five straight wins. The Rams are only two points outside the top six, and 11 of their 23 points have come in away matches.
While Swansea have only claimed one win in five home league games, Derby have three on the road.
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Swansea v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.26 | 3.05 | 3.45 |
|
|
2.21 | 3.04 | 3.49 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.02 | 3.55 |
|
|
2.15 | 2.95 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.22 | 3 | 3.55 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Swansea and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Swansea vs Derby County match is: Derby County wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/11/2025 between Swansea and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.1% for a win of Swansea against Derby County with odds of 2.3 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Swansea vs Derby County is 26.02% with odds of 3.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 46.88% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Swansea with odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
Swansea - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Swansea Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 46.88% | 3.6 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.86% | 2.48 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 72.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Derby County/Derby County | 19.17% | 6 at Bet365 |
Swansea vs Derby County Form
Swansea and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
11
|
64 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | -2 |
Swansea and Derby County Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
5 Nov 2025 - Championship
1 Nov 2025 - Championship
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Championship
22 Oct 2025 - Championship
4 Oct 2025 - Championship
27 Sept 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
5 Nov 2025 - Championship
1 Nov 2025 - Championship
18 Oct 2025 - Championship
30 Sept 2025 - Championship
20 Sept 2025 - Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
4 Nov 2025 - Championship
1 Nov 2025 - Championship
25 Oct 2025 - Championship
21 Oct 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
4 Nov 2025 - Championship
25 Oct 2025 - Championship
21 Oct 2025 - Championship
4 Oct 2025 - Championship
30 Sept 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
1 Nov 2025 - Championship
18 Oct 2025 - Championship
27 Sept 2025 - Championship
13 Sept 2025 - Championship
30 Aug 2025 - Championship
Swansea vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Apr 2025 - Championship
27 Nov 2024 - Championship
1 May 2019 - Championship
Swansea against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
A. Fisher
DefenderK. Casey
I. Samuels-Smith
MidfielderG. Franco
Z. Inoussa
M. Stamenic
A. Idah
M. Widell
B. Manuel
J. Vickers
DefenderC. Forsyth
R. Nyambe
C. Nelson
MidfielderL. Thompson
O. Eames
ForwardC. Blackett-Taylor
A. Weimann
K. Jackson
Most goals and assists
Swansea
Derby County
Z. Vipotnik
(23 Goals)
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
J. Tymon
(7 Assists)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
Swansea - Derby County Key Points
- Derby have won five of their last six matches.
- Derby have three wins in their last five away matches.
- Swansea managed just one win in their last nine matches.
- Swansea have suffered defeat in four of their last five outings.
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Our Swansea vs Derby County Prediction
Swansea have dominated the head-to-head meetings with Derby County, but there is a different feel to this one. The Swans posted wins in each of their last five meetings with Derby; however, they come here winless in five. In that run the Welsh side managed just one draw.
Meanwhile, Derby County have registered five wins in their latest six matches. They should have actually made it six were it not for a loss of concentration in the last game. We expect the Rams to bounce back. Our prediction for Swansea v Derby County is that Derby County wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Swansea Derby County
| Swansea vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea wins | 2.18 | 2.3 | +5.5% |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.1 | -1.6% |
| Derby County wins | 3.65 | 3.6 | -1.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Derby County is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 27.4% and is now 27.8% (0.4%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
