England - Premier League
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by Joseph King | in Premier League Predictions
Sunday in the Premier League sees upstarts Sunderland playing host to the struggling Aston Villa for matchday five. The Black Cats come into this match sitting seventh in the standings while the Villains are in the relegation zone in 19th place. Read on for our prediction!
Sunderland fans couldn’t have wished for a better start to their first season back in the top flight in nine years. With seven points from the first four games, they’ve already built up an early four-point lead over the bottom three. Key to their early success has been their strong form at the Stadium of Light.
Aston Villa fans, on the other hand, likely couldn’t have imagined a much worse start to the 2025-26 season. They’ve only managed two points from the first four league fixtures, and not only are they winless, they are also goalless. Will Sunderland continue to pile the pressure on Aston Villa or will the visitors finally make the breakthrough?
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The Best Betting Odds for Sunderland v Aston Villa Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.3 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.55 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Sunderland and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Sunderland vs Aston Villa match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/09/2025 between Sunderland and Aston Villa in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.71% for a win of Sunderland against Aston Villa with odds of 3.75 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sunderland vs Aston Villa is 37.76% with odds of 3.5 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.54% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Sunderland with odds of 2.16 at 22bet.
Sunderland vs Aston Villa Form
Sunderland and Aston Villa's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
|
19
|
2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 |
Sunderland and Aston Villa Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
13 May 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
16 May 2025 - Premier League
3 May 2025 - Premier League
19 Apr 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Sunderland - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
Sunderland had goalkeeper Robin Roefs to thank for securing them a point in their 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace last weekend. The Black Cats weren’t at their best but managed to extend their unbeaten run after 90 minutes to three games across all competitions.
Sunderland will now be seeking their third consecutive Premier League win in a row, something that hasn’t been achieved since 2012 for the hosts. Their last outing at this ground saw them come from behind in the second half to beat Brentford 2-1, with the winner coming deep into stoppage time.
Much of the news around Aston Villa in the lead up to this match has been their misfiring attack. With zero goals scored after four Premier League matches, the Villains are chasing a very undesirable record.
Aston Villa could become only the third team in history to fail to score after the first five league games.
It’s not simply a case of poor finishing at Aston Villa, as they are fundamentally failing to generate quality scoring chances. The visitors come into this game ranking second-to-last in the league in both expected goals (3.1) and big chances created (4).
Aston Villa were knocked out of the EFL Cup by Brentford on penalties on Tuesday. Prior to that, they were fortunate to draw 0-0 away from home against Everton. Their winless run now sits at five games across all competitions.
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Missing players
A. Alese
D. Cirkin
L. Hjelde
D. Ballard
MidfielderL. O'Nien
R. Mundle
A. Garcia
R. Barkley
A. Onana
Y. Tielemans
Sunderland & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
Sunderland come into this fixture with a lengthy injury list of up to six players which includes Romaine Mundle, Dennis Cirkin and Dan Ballard.
Robin Roefs put in a man-of-the-match performance against Crystal Palace, making six saves and 15 recoveries in the goalless draw. The 22-year-old Dutchman earned his side a point as he kept out 1.36 expected goals on target.
Captaining the team will be former Arsenal and Leverkusen Granit Xhaka, who has been a rock at the base of the midfield since making the switch back to England in the summer.
Aston Villa kick off their Europa League campaign this Thursday against Bologna.
That could be on Unai Emery’s mind when he selects his team sheet for Sunday’s game, although the top priority at the moment has to be putting an end to the domestic winless run.
The Spanish manager could be without four players for this trip, including new signing Victor Lindelof and influential midfielder Youri Tielemens.
All eyes will be on the Villa attackers and if they can finally put an end to the goalless drought. Recent signing Harvey Elliot was on target in the EFL Cup match and will be pushing for a spot in one of the three attacking positions behind Watkins in the 4-2-3-1 formation.
Most goals and assists
Sunderland
Aston Villa
W. Isidor
(2 Goals)
H. Elliott
(1 Goals)
O. Alderete
(1 Assists)
, 
S. Adingra
(1 Assists)
, 
C. Talbi
(1 Assists)
, 
G. Xhaka
(1 Assists)
Sunderland and Aston Villa Stats in Premier League
Sunderland - Aston Villa Key Points
- Aston Villa rank 19th in expected goals (3.1) while Sunderland rank 17th (3.4).
- The visitors rank 19th in big chances created (4) while the hosts rank 14th (6).
- Burnley and Aston Villa rank 19th and 17th, respectively, in shots on target per match.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in four of Aston Villa's five total games this season.
- Sunderland have seen under 2.5 goals in three of their last four overall.
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Our Sunderland vs Aston Villa Prediction
Aston Villa come into this match with a misfiring attack and are still seeking their first league goal. Sunderland, meanwhile, have been performing above expectation with their finishing, scoring five goals on just nine shots. They could face some regression here.
All the underlying statistics point towards this being a game where goals will be hard to come by. Neither team are creating many quality chances, nor are they getting off a high number of shots on target per game. There’s a good chance we see just a goal or two scored. Our Sunderland vs Aston Villa prediction: under 2.5.
Sunderland vs Aston Villa - Other Interesting Predictions
Sunderland double chance
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